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Progress Software Corporation (PRGS)

Juste valeur
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureUnited States

Fondamental

73

Prix

$39.97

Capitalisation boursière

$1.64B

Partie 1 · Ce que vaut l'entreprise

Vue d'ensemble

Progress Software is a Massachusetts-based infrastructure software company that sells a portfolio of development, deployment and management tools rather than a single flagship application. Its products include the OpenEdge application development platform, the ShareFile document-collaboration SaaS acquired from Cloud Software Group at the end of fiscal 2024, MOVEit and Automate managed file transfer, Chef for DevOps automation, MarkLogic and DataDirect for data management and connectivity, Sitefinity for digital experience, Flowmon, Kemp LoadMaster and WhatsUp Gold for network security and monitoring, and Corticon for decision automation. The company describes itself as operating a single operating segment, and in fiscal 2025 (ended 30 November 2025) it reported total revenue of $977.8 million, up from $753.4 million in fiscal 2024, with about 36% of revenue generated outside North America. A large part of the business is acquired rather than built: Progress buys mature infrastructure products and runs them for cash, and the 10-K states that OpenEdge and ShareFile together accounted for slightly more than half of aggregate consolidated revenue in fiscal 2025.

Comment l'entreprise gagne de l'argent

Progress sells the same products under several commercial forms: perpetual licences, term licences, subscriptions and SaaS. The income statement splits revenue in two lines. In fiscal 2025, software licence revenue was $237.9 million, down 5% from $249.3 million, while maintenance, SaaS and professional services revenue was $739.9 million, up 47% from $504.1 million — the jump almost entirely explained by ShareFile, which was owned for a single month of fiscal 2024. The economics therefore rest on renewals rather than on new licence sales: annualised recurring revenue was $852 million at the end of fiscal 2025, and the company reports net retention of 100%, meaning expansion and churn broadly cancelled out. Nearly half of worldwide revenue is sold indirectly, through independent software vendors, OEMs, distributors and resellers, with the rest sold direct.

Avantage concurrentiel

Coûts de changement · Étroit

The durable advantage, where it exists, is embedment rather than brand or scale. OpenEdge is a development platform on which independent software vendors have built their own commercial applications, and the 10-K notes that nearly half of worldwide revenue flows through those partners; moving an application off the platform means rewriting the product, not switching a supplier, which is why maintenance revenue on a licence base that is no longer growing keeps renewing. ShareFile and MOVEit sit inside regulated document and file-transfer workflows with similar inertia. The limits are real: most of the portfolio competes against much larger vendors and against open-source alternatives, licence revenue declined in fiscal 2025, and constant-currency ARR grew only 2% with net retention at exactly 100% — a base that holds rather than compounds. That is the profile of a narrow advantage over an installed base, not of a franchise that wins new ground.

Ce qui stimule la demande

Modérément cyclique

Most of the revenue is maintenance, subscription and SaaS billed on renewal, which is the defensive part: the software already runs inside customer systems and is not switched off in a weak year. What moves with the cycle is the smaller, more discretionary part — new perpetual and term licences, seat expansion and professional services, which depend on customer IT budgets and on the health of the independent software vendors that resell OpenEdge. Fiscal 2025 shows both halves at once: recurring revenue grew sharply on the ShareFile acquisition while licence revenue fell 5%, and constant-currency ARR grew only 2%.

Principaux risques

  • Revenue concentrated on OpenEdge and ShareFile — The company lists as a risk factor its dependence on licence and maintenance revenue from the OpenEdge product set and SaaS revenue from ShareFile, which together made slightly more than half of consolidated revenue in fiscal 2025. A decline in either — partners migrating off OpenEdge, or ShareFile losing subscribers — would hit results directly, and the remaining products are individually too small to absorb it.
  • Product defects and security vulnerabilities — Progress discloses that defects or security flaws in its products may expose it to liability, remediation cost and reputational damage, and the filing keeps a specific risk factor for the MOVEit vulnerability. Because several products — managed file transfer, network monitoring, load balancing — sit on the security perimeter of customer infrastructure, a single disclosed flaw becomes a customer-wide incident rather than a contained bug.
  • Acquisitions may not integrate as planned — Growth comes largely from buying products, and the company lists the corresponding risks: acquisitions may fail to deliver the expected benefits, integration may divert management attention and cost more than planned, and assumed liabilities may surface after closing. ShareFile, which added $261.6 million of revenue in fiscal 2025, is the largest current example of this dependence.
  • Dependence on channel partners — The filing flags risks in its channel partner relationships and in its reliance on third parties. Nearly half of worldwide revenue is sold through independent software vendors, OEMs, distributors and resellers that Progress does not control; those partners can reduce their commitment, be acquired, or shift to competing platforms.
  • Technology change and artificial intelligence — Two separate risk factors cover AI: the company may fail to realise the benefits of its own AI initiatives, and embedding AI in its products brings legal, ethical and technical exposure. A third covers the broader risk that technology and customer requirements evolve faster than the portfolio, which matters for a business whose largest asset is a development platform designed decades ago.
  • International operations and currency — About 36% of fiscal 2025 revenue came from outside North America, and the company lists the exposure of its international operations — currency movements, local regulation, and the compliance burden of operating across many jurisdictions, including data privacy and protection regimes — among its risk factors.

Concentration des clients

The 10-K states that no single customer or partner accounted for more than 10% of total revenue in any of the last three fiscal years, and it does not disclose a combined share for the largest customers. The concentration that does exist is in the channel rather than in end customers: nearly half of worldwide revenue is sold indirectly through independent software vendors, OEMs, distributors and resellers, and no single one of those partners crosses the 10% threshold either.

Les arguments en faveur

Buyers argue that the model works exactly as designed: Progress buys mature infrastructure products with sticky maintenance bases, runs them at a non-GAAP operating margin of 39%, and uses the cash to buy the next one. Fiscal 2025 revenue rose 30% to $977.8 million on that logic, and net retention of 100% suggests the acquired bases are holding rather than draining. They point to OpenEdge's position inside partner applications as very hard to dislodge, to ShareFile as a full year of recurring SaaS revenue now inside the perimeter, and to the fact that the company keeps finding assets its larger competitors no longer want to operate.

Les arguments contre

Sellers fear that underneath the acquisitions there is no organic growth. Licence revenue fell 5% in fiscal 2025, annualised recurring revenue grew 2% in constant currency, and net retention of exactly 100% means the installed base is flat — so the reported 30% revenue increase came from buying ShareFile, not from selling more software. That makes the story dependent on a continuing supply of acquisitions and on the debt and integration risk each one carries, while GAAP net income of $73.1 million on $977.8 million of revenue shows how much of the margin is absorbed by amortisation of acquired assets. They also point to the MOVEit episode as evidence that a single vulnerability in a security-adjacent product can create liability and reputational damage out of proportion to the product's revenue, and to the risk that a development platform of OpenEdge's generation loses relevance as customers rewrite applications around newer, AI-driven tooling.

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Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Bilan & Liquidités

Chiffre d'affaires

$1000M

12 derniers mois (au 31/08/2026)

Résultat net

$92M

12 derniers mois (au 31/08/2026)

Flux de trésorerie libre

$229M

Capitaux propres totaux

$478M

Passif total

$1.98B

Ratio de liquidité général

0.80

Couverture des intérêts

2.73

Dette/EBITDA

7.93

Bénéfice par action

Chiffre d'affaires & Résultat net

Flux de trésorerie libre

Décomposition du résultat

État historique

Marges dans le temps

La dette dans le temps

Le poids de la dette

Grille de la croissance

Croissance — Chiffre d'affaires

Estimation de la juste valeur

Cas généralJustement valorisé

Juste valeur

$46.28

Prix actuel

$39.97

Marge de sécurité

+13.6%

Fourchette de juste valeur

$30.08 - $62.47

Écart entre les méthodes de valorisation utilisées, pas un intervalle de confiance calibré statistiquement.

Méthodes d'estimation

Objectif de cours des analystes:$56.20
Flux de trésorerie actualisés (DCF):$80.22
Multiple de résultat (P/E):$13.39
Formule de croissance de Graham:$15.41
Valeur de la capacité bénéficiaire (EPV):$34.28
P/B justifié:$29.22
Actualisation des dividendes (Gordon):$0.35
P/FFO, les fonds provenant de l'exploitation:$31.05
Bénéfices de milieu de cycle:$102.86
Multiple sur le chiffre d'affaires:$121.09
Consensus des analystes:Achat fort (11B / 1H / 0S)
Dernière surprise sur les résultats:+9.36%

Indicateurs de valorisation

Ratio P/E

18.42

ROE

15.3%

Ratio P/B

3.08

P/FCF

5.12

Marge brute

82.2%

ROIC

7.4%

Radar de rentabilité

Création de valeur (avantage concurrentiel)

ROIC

7.4%

WACC

7.3%

ROIC − WACC

+0.1 pp

Le ROIC est à peu près aligné sur le coût du capital — l'entreprise couvre à peine son coût du capital.

Critères d'analyse fondamentale

Réussi (19)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 5.04%
  • ROIC 7.4%
  • Gross Margin 82.2%
  • P/FCF 5.12
  • Operating Margin 17.7%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 18.2%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 17.2%
  • Analyst Consensus 92% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 7.2%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 3.55
  • Share Dilution -0.9%
  • Net Margin Trend 9.2% vs 5.2%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Échoué (7)

  • Price CAGR 2.54%
  • P/B Ratio 3.08
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)

Indisponible (2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Score F de Piotroski

7/9

Santé financière solide

score
criteria

Qualité des bénéfices

3.55

Qualité élevée : bénéfices soutenus par la trésorerie

Dilution du capital

-0.9%

Rachat d'actions. Favorable aux actionnaires

Participations institutionnelles

Gouvernance

Équipe dirigeante

NomTitreÂge
Mr. Yogesh K. GuptaCEO, President & Director64
Mr. Anthony Folger CPAExecutive VP, CFO & Treasurer53
Mr. John AinsworthExecutive VP and GM of Application & Data Platform60
Ms. Loren Weinberg JarrettExecutive VP & GM of Digital Experience50
Mr. Sundar SubramanianExecutive VP & GM of Infrastructure Management45
Ms. Bridget CollinsChief Information Officer-
Mr. Michael MiccicheSenior Vice President of Investor Relations-
Ms. YuFan WangExecutive VP, Chief Legal Officer, Chief Compliance Officer & Corporate Secretary41
Ms. Jennifer OrtizChief Marketing Officer48
Mr. Jeremy SegalExecutive Vice President of Corporate Development54

Risque d'audit

4

Risque du conseil

2

Risque de rémunération

4

Risque droits des actionnaires

6

Partie 2 · Le prix et le moment d'entrer

Cette partie ne dit pas si l'entreprise vaut la peine : elle aide à choisir quand l'acheter, une fois que les fondamentaux vous ont convaincu. À l'intérieur : analyse technique, potentiel, baisses historiques, exposition gamma.

Documents

  • Rapport annuel (10-K)

    Un aperçu annuel de l'activité, des résultats financiers et des risques de l'entreprise.

    Déposé le 2026-01-20

    Voir le document
  • Rapport trimestriel (10-Q)

    Une mise à jour de la performance financière des trois derniers mois.

    Déposé le 2026-09-30

    Voir le document
  • Rapport d'événement important (8-K)

    Un avis concernant un événement important, comme un changement de direction ou une annonce majeure.

    Déposé le 2026-09-30

    Voir le document

via SEC EDGAR

Historique des résultats

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for PRGS, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/30/2026POSITIVE
    Progress Software Earnings Beat Estimates, Boosts Forecast

    Progress Software Corporation announced its latest earnings, surpassing analyst expectations and leading to an upward revision of its future financial forecasts. CEO Yogesh Gupta highlighted Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a significant growth catalyst, emphasizing the company's unique ability to aggregate data for AI applications. This capability reportedly reduces the token requirements for AI agents, thereby offering substantial cost savings to customers. The positive financial results and strategic positioning in the burgeoning AI market suggest strong future performance, making Progress Software an attractive prospect for investors seeking exposure to AI-driven growth.

  • 3/31/2026NEGATIVE
    Progress Software Analysts Cut Their Forecasts After Q1 Results

    Progress Software (NASDAQ:PRGS) reported Q1 earnings that surpassed analyst expectations, alongside an upward revision to its FY2026 EPS and sales guidance. Despite these positive fundamental indicators, the company's stock experienced a notable decline of 6.6%. This divergence suggests that while the company's operational performance is strong, market sentiment or other unstated factors are weighing on the stock price. Investors should monitor future analyst actions and market commentary to understand the disconnect between reported results and stock performance.

via Markets Gazette