Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX)
Fair ValueFundamental
74
मूल्य
$141.84
मार्केट कैप
$14.12B
भाग 1 · कंपनी का मूल्य कितना है
अवलोकन
Neurocrine Biosciences develops and sells drugs for neurological, endocrine and neuropsychiatric conditions. Its main product, INGREZZA, treats involuntary muscle movements caused by tardive dyskinesia and by Huntington's disease, conditions with few other approved options. In 2025 it added CRENESSITY, developed with AbbVie, for a rare hormonal disorder called congenital adrenal hyperplasia. The company runs its own US sales force and licenses ex-US rights to partners rather than building a global commercial organization itself.
यह पैसा कैसे कमाती है
Almost all revenue comes from US product sales recognized when specialty pharmacies dispense the drug, net of rebates to insurers and government programs. Prescription volume for INGREZZA keeps growing, but the average net price per prescription has been declining as the company invests in broader insurance formulary access; CRENESSITY and a small amount of collaboration and royalty income round out the rest. There is no meaningful ex-US commercial revenue yet.
सेगमेंट के अनुसार राजस्व
Treatment for tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's disease chorea, and by far the company's largest product.
Treatment for congenital adrenal hyperplasia, developed with AbbVie and launched fully into 2025, its first full year on the market.
प्रतिस्पर्धी बढ़त (Moat)
पेटेंट और लाइसेंस · संकीर्णINGREZZA is protected by patents and by years of trial data that a generic or rival could not shortcut, and it holds a strong position among VMAT2 inhibitors, the drug class used for tardive dyskinesia. The advantage is narrow rather than wide because Teva's Austedo competes directly in the same class, and INGREZZA's own patent protection is not indefinite.
मांग को क्या चलाता है
डिफेंसिवBoth products treat chronic conditions that require ongoing medication regardless of the economy, and prescriptions are largely covered by insurance rather than paid out of pocket. Growth depends more on how many eligible patients get diagnosed and started on treatment, and on payors' willingness to keep reimbursing at current prices, than on macroeconomic conditions.
प्रमुख जोखिम
- Dependence on a single product — INGREZZA generates close to 88% of revenue. A safety issue, competitive setback or loss of patent protection affecting this one drug would affect nearly the entire company.
- Competition within the same drug class — Teva's Austedo is an approved rival VMAT2 inhibitor competing for the same tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's patients, and other companies are pursuing similar mechanisms.
- Pricing and reimbursement pressure — Medicare price negotiation and scrutiny from pharmacy benefit managers on specialty drugs are an ongoing pressure on net price, and INGREZZA's average price per prescription has already been declining.
- Patent exclusivity timeline — INGREZZA's patent protection will not last indefinitely, and the revenue and profitability that depend on it are expected to face generic competition once that protection lapses.
ग्राहक Concentration
Neurocrine does not disclose revenue concentration by individual customer; the more relevant concentration is by product, with INGREZZA alone generating close to 88% of total revenue.
खरीदने के पक्ष में तर्क
Buyers argue that INGREZZA still has room to grow as more patients are diagnosed and started on treatment, that CRENESSITY opens a second, largely untapped rare-disease market, and that a profitable, cash-generating biopharma with a broad neuroscience pipeline behind its two approved drugs deserves credit beyond its current product concentration.
बेचने के पक्ष में तर्क
Sellers fear that nearly nine in ten dollars of revenue riding on one drug leaves little room for a misstep, that Austedo and future rivals will keep chipping away at INGREZZA's pricing and share, and that patent expiration eventually turns today's cash-generating franchise into a shrinking one.
Written by the editors, published on 18 अगस्त 2026
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बैलेंस शीट और तरलता
राजस्व
$3.37B
पिछले 12 महीने (30/6/2026 तक)
शुद्ध आय
$706M
पिछले 12 महीने (30/6/2026 तक)
Free Cash Flow
$749M
कुल इक्विटी
$3.25B
कुल देनदारियाँ
$1.38B
Current Ratio
1.87
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
0.51
Earnings Per Share
राजस्व और शुद्ध आय
Free Cash Flow
आय विवरण
ऐतिहासिक विवरण
समय के साथ मार्जिन
समय के साथ ऋण
ऋण कितना भारी है
वृद्धि तालिका
वृद्धि — राजस्व
Fair Value अनुमान
Fair Value
$142.91
वर्तमान मूल्य
$141.84
Margin of Safety
+0.7%
Fair Value सीमा
$92.97 - $192.84
इस्तेमाल किए गए valuation methods के बीच का फैलाव, कोई सांख्यिकीय रूप से calibrated confidence interval नहीं।
अनुमान विधियाँ
मूल्यांकन मेट्रिक्स
P/E Ratio
20.77
ROE
14.7%
P/B Ratio
3.90
P/FCF
16.56
Gross Margin
98.2%
ROIC
14.0%
लाभप्रदता Radar
मूल्य सृजन (प्रतिस्पर्धी बढ़त)
ROIC
14.0%
WACC
7.8%
ROIC − WACC
+6.3 pp
ROIC पूंजी की लागत से अधिक है — कंपनी शेयरधारकों के लिए मूल्य सृजित कर रही है।
Fundamental विश्लेषण मानदंड
पास (20)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 13.68%
- ROIC 14.0%
- Gross Margin 98.2%
- P/FCF 16.56
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 23.6%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 21.1%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 22.3%
- Analyst Consensus 86% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 36.6%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.27
- Share Dilution -1.2%
- Net Margin Trend 20.9% vs 13.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
फेल (5)
- P/B Ratio 3.90
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- PEG Ratio 8.66
अनुपलब्ध (2)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
Piotroski F-Score
मिश्रित संकेत: कुछ क्षेत्रों पर ध्यान देना आवश्यक
Earnings गुणवत्ता
उच्च गुणवत्ता: earnings नकदी द्वारा समर्थित
शेयर Dilution
शेयर वापस खरीद रही है। शेयरधारक अनुकूल
संस्थागत होल्डिंग
प्रशासन
कार्यकारी टीम
| नाम | पद | आयु |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Kyle W. Gano Ph.D. | President, CEO & Director | 52 |
| Mr. Matthew C. Abernethy CPA | Chief Financial Officer | 45 |
| Dr. Jude Onyia Ph.D. | Chief Scientific Officer | 61 |
| Mr. Eric S. Benevich | Chief Commercial Officer | 60 |
| Dr. Eiry Wyn Roberts M.D. | Strategic Advisor | 61 |
| Dr. Sanjay Keswani B.Sc., M.D., MBBS | Chief Medical Officer | 54 |
| Dr. Wylie W. Vale Ph.D. | Co-Founder | 83 |
| Dr. Lawrence Steinman BA, M.D., Ph.D. | Co-Founder of Neurocrine | 77 |
| Mr. Aaron Vosburgh | Senior Vice President of Finance & Accounting | - |
| Mr. Lewis Choi | Chief Information Officer | - |
Audit जोखिम
3
बोर्ड जोखिम
2
मुआवजा जोखिम
4
शेयरधारक अधिकार जोखिम
3
भाग 2 · कीमत और खरीदने का समय
यह हिस्सा यह नहीं बताता कि कंपनी अच्छी है या नहीं: यह तय करने में मदद करता है कि उसे कब खरीदें, जब फंडामेंटल आपको आश्वस्त कर चुके हों। इसमें: तकनीकी विश्लेषण, संभावना, ऐतिहासिक गिरावट, गामा एक्सपोज़र।
दस्तावेज़
- दस्तावेज़ देखें
वार्षिक रिपोर्ट (10-K)
कंपनी के कारोबार, वित्तीय नतीजों और जोखिमों का वार्षिक सिंहावलोकन।
दाखिल तिथि: 2026-02-11
- दस्तावेज़ देखें
तिमाही रिपोर्ट (10-Q)
पिछले तीन महीनों के वित्तीय प्रदर्शन का अपडेट।
दाखिल तिथि: 2026-07-31
- दस्तावेज़ देखें
विशेष रिपोर्ट (8-K)
किसी बड़ी घटना, जैसे नेतृत्व में बदलाव या बड़ी घोषणा, की सूचना।
दाखिल तिथि: 2026-09-28
via SEC EDGAR
आय का इतिहास
via SEC EDGAR
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