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Applovin Corporation (APP)

適正価値
Communication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesUnited States

ファンダメンタル

77

株価

$290.43

時価総額

$104.57B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

AppLovin runs an advertising auction that decides which ad a mobile app shows a user and how much the advertiser pays for that moment, then continually adjusts its bidding based on which ads actually lead to a purchase or install. It built this business inside mobile games, buying ad space from thousands of small game publishers and reselling it to advertisers, then rebuilt its bidding technology around AI. In 2025 it sold off the mobile game studios it used to own, becoming a pure advertising-technology company.

収益の仕組み

AppLovin earns the spread between what advertisers pay to show an ad and what it pays app publishers for the ad space, plus platform fees. Because it prices each auction using its own AI model, better predictions of which user will actually buy something let it bid more aggressively and win more auctions without giving away margin — an edge built on data and algorithms rather than a sales force. Following the 2025 divestiture of its Apps business, essentially all revenue now comes from this single advertising segment.

セグメント別売上高

Advertising100%

AppLovin's entire reported business following the 2025 sale of its mobile game studios: the AI-driven advertising and app-marketing platform, now its only segment.

競争優位性(moat)

ネットワーク効果 · 狭い

More advertiser demand bidding into AppLovin's auction generates better training data for its AI pricing model, which in turn wins more ad placements from publishers, attracting still more advertiser demand — a flywheel visible in its recent growth. But the underlying auction technology is not unique to AppLovin, and large rivals like Google and Meta run comparable systems at even greater scale.

需要を左右する要因

景気循環型

Advertising budgets, especially the mobile app install and in-app purchase spending AppLovin depends on, expand and contract with the broader economy and with how much cash mobile game and app developers have to spend on user acquisition. A slowdown in consumer discretionary spending on apps and games flows quickly into lower marketing budgets and lower AppLovin revenue.

主なリスク

  • Dependence on Apple and Google distribution — AppLovin's advertisers and publishers operate almost entirely inside the Apple App Store and Google Play Store; a policy change on tracking, data sharing or fees by either platform can directly affect ad targeting and revenue.
  • Concentration in mobile gaming ad spend — A large share of ad demand still comes from mobile game developers buying user-acquisition ads; a pullback in gaming ad budgets affects AppLovin more than a broadly diversified ad platform.
  • Reliance on a single reportable segment — After divesting its Apps business in 2025, AppLovin depends entirely on its advertising platform for revenue, with no other business line to offset a slowdown there.
  • Competition from much larger advertising platforms — Google, Meta and other large ad platforms compete for the same advertiser budgets with far greater scale and data, and could apply comparable AI bidding technology of their own.

強気材料

Buyers argue that focusing entirely on advertising after selling the Apps business lets management concentrate fully on its highest-margin, fastest-growing technology, that its AI bidding engine has demonstrably out-performed the industry given 70% revenue growth, and that mobile gaming is just the first vertical it can expand its auction technology into.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that divesting the Apps business removes a diversifying revenue stream and leaves AppLovin fully exposed to one advertising segment, that its growth depends heavily on ad spend from mobile game developers that can pull back quickly, and that far larger platforms like Google and Meta could replicate its AI-bidding advantage given enough time and data.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年8月23日 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 27.3Score: 70Market cap: —

Meta's Audience Network and its app-install ad products chase the same performance advertising budgets from mobile app and e-commerce marketers that AppLovin's AXON engine is built to win.

P/E: —Score: 52Market cap: $17.54B

Unity's LevelPlay mediation and Unity Ads network, built on the acquired ironSource business, are the closest like-for-like alternative to AppLovin MAX for mobile game publishers and user-acquisition buyers.

P/E: 20.0Score: 77Market cap: $2.69T

Named in AppLovin's own 10-K, Amazon's advertising arm competes for the e-commerce and performance budgets AppLovin is targeting as it opens its platform beyond gaming.

Alphabet Inc. (Google)GOOGL

Google's AdMob and Google Ads compete directly with AppLovin's MAX mediation and ad network for the same app publishers' ad inventory and the same advertisers' spend.

Moloco, Inc.Not tracked

Moloco is an independent machine-learning demand-side platform selling ROAS-optimized app-install and commerce media campaigns to the same app marketers and retailers AppLovin courts with its self-serve platform.

Liftoff Mobile, Inc.Not tracked

Liftoff runs a mobile performance ad network and the Vungle monetization stack, competing for the same user-acquisition budgets and the same app publishers' ad slots.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$6.83B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$4.41B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

-

自己資本合計

$2.13B

負債合計

$5.12B

流動比率

4.30

利払い倍率

26.62

負債/EBITDA

0.81

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース適正価値

適正価値

$280.59

現在株価

$290.43

安全マージン

-3.5%

適正価値レンジ

$182.38 - $378.80

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$498.37
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):$53.24
利益倍率(P/E):$225.17
グレアムの成長公式:$211.97
収益力価値(EPV):$68.87
正当化されたP/B:$77.59
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):$168.38
中間サイクル利益:$69.03
売上高倍率:$41.64
アナリスト・コンセンサス:強い買い (29B / 8H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+0.07%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

22.32

ROE

156.2%

P/B レシオ

30.79

P/FCF

-

粗利益率

88.5%

ROIC

59.6%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROICの外れ値

ROIC

59.6%

WACC

17.6%

ROIC − WACC

+42.0 pp

ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(19)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 73.29%
  • Price CAGR 27.32%
  • ROIC 59.6%
  • Gross Margin 88.5%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 77.4%
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 193.1%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 30.4%
  • Analyst Consensus 78% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 3.5%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.03
  • Share Dilution -2.0%
  • Net Margin Trend 64.6% vs 62.7%
  • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

不合格(4)

  • P/B Ratio 30.79
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)

データなし(5)

  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-スコア

9/9

財務健全性が高い

score
criteria

利益の質

1.03

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-2.0%

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Adam Arash ForoughiCo-Founder, CEO & Director44
Mr. Matthew A. StumpfChief Financial Officer41
Ms. Victoria ValenzuelaConsultant51
Mr. Dmitriy DoroshVice President Controller & Principal Accounting Officer-
Mr. Giovanni GeChief Technology Officer-
Mr. David HsiaoHead of Investor Relations-
Ms. Corina CacoveanChief Legal Officer-

監査リスク

1

取締役会リスク

9

報酬リスク

10

株主権利リスク

10

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-02-19

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-08-05

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-08-05

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for APP, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 22h agoPOSITIVE
    AppLovin: island reversal e divergenza rialzista — cosa aspettarsi?

    AppLovin Corporation's stock has shown signs of a potential rebound after a significant decline. The stock has been trading horizontally for the past two months within a tight range between $297 and $352. Technical analysis indicates the formation of an island reversal pattern, a bullish signal suggesting a possible upward movement. Despite a recent 60% drop from its all-time high and a death cross formation on July 15th, the current pattern suggests that the selling pressure might be easing, offering a potential entry point for investors anticipating a recovery.

  • 8d agoNEGATIVE
    Vendere AppLovin dopo l'avviso di Edgewater su un tetto di crescita?

    AppLovin Corporation shares experienced a significant decline following a cautionary research note from Edgewater Research. Analyst Joe Wittine has revised down his Q4 revenue estimates for the mobile technology firm, citing a substantial year-over-year slowdown. Edgewater's report suggests that previous gains in customer share-of-wallet have reached a plateau, indicating a more constrained growth outlook. This cautious stance from Edgewater adds further pressure on AppLovin's stock, which has already seen a more than 50% decrease since early January. Investors are advised to monitor AppLovin's upcoming earnings reports for confirmation of these growth concerns.

  • 8/21/2026NEGATIVE
    Piper Sandler sconsiglia di comprare il calo delle azioni AppLovin

    Piper Sandler analyst James Callahan issued a cautious note on AppLovin (APP), maintaining a Neutral rating and lowering the price target to $325. This comes as APP shares have already fallen over 50% since early June. The firm cited a significant loss of operational momentum within the mobile technology company's engine. Investors should note that the reduced price target suggests limited upside potential from current levels, reinforcing a bearish sentiment for the stock amidst ongoing operational challenges.

  • 8/6/2026NEGATIVE
    AppLovin’s AI stumbles send the stock sliding toward its worst day in over a year

    AppLovin Corporation experienced a significant stock decline, approaching its worst performance in over a year, following a stumble in its artificial intelligence initiatives. The company also failed to meet revenue expectations for the most recent fiscal quarter. This dual disappointment suggests potential headwinds in AppLovin's core business and its forward-looking AI strategy, raising concerns among investors about future growth prospects and competitive positioning in the rapidly evolving tech landscape.

  • 6/12/2026POSITIVE
    If You Invested $100 In AppLovin Stock 5 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today

    An investment of $100 in AppLovin Corporation (APP) five years ago would have yielded a substantial return, illustrating the company's significant growth trajectory. While specific figures are not provided in the prompt, the article's premise suggests a strong performance for APP shareholders. This highlights AppLovin's success in the mobile technology and advertising sector, potentially driven by its platform innovations and market expansion. Investors considering the stock should analyze its recent performance, competitive landscape, and future growth catalysts.

  • 6/9/2026NEGATIVE
    Why AppLovin Stock Is Tumbling Tuesday

    AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP) experienced a significant decline, trading down approximately 8% on Tuesday. This downturn is attributed to a broader market sentiment characterized by a 'risk-off' environment, which is particularly impacting high-multiple software and ad-tech companies. The Nasdaq index's performance is a key indicator of this trend, suggesting that investors are moving away from growth-oriented, speculative assets. For shareholders, this indicates a challenging period for the ad-tech sector, potentially driven by macroeconomic concerns or a shift in investor appetite.

  • 5/27/2026POSITIVE
    Applovin Stock Is Skyrocketing Today: What's Going On?

    Applovin Corporation shares experienced a significant surge on Wednesday, indicating strong positive market sentiment towards the company. While the article mentions a slide in oil prices due to a U.S.-Iran agreement potentially easing shipping chokepoints, the primary focus and the driver of the stock's movement is Applovin's performance. Investors are likely reacting to company-specific news or broader market trends that favor technology and advertising platforms, overshadowing commodity market fluctuations. This upward momentum suggests a positive outlook for Applovin's business operations and future growth prospects.

  • 5/26/2026POSITIVE
    Applovin Stock Surges On U.S.-Iran Negotiation Hopes

    Applovin Corporation shares experienced a notable surge on Tuesday, driven by a broader market rotation into software sector stocks. This upward movement is attributed to cooling inflation expectations, which are indirectly influenced by developing geopolitical situations involving U.S.-Iran negotiations. The shift suggests investors are seeking growth opportunities in technology amidst perceived stability in the Middle East, potentially signaling a favorable environment for software companies like Applovin.

  • 5/19/2026NEUTRAL
    Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning AppLovin Stock In The Last 5 Years

    AppLovin Corporation (APP) stock has experienced significant performance over the past five years. While the article title suggests a focus on historical returns, it does not provide specific figures or context regarding recent performance drivers, future outlook, or any new developments. Therefore, it serves as an informational piece on past stock appreciation rather than a forward-looking trading signal. Investors should consult more current financial data and analysis for actionable insights.

  • 5/7/2026POSITIVE
    Applovin Stock A Buy After Q1 Results, Guidance: Analyst Says 'Valuation Remains Cheap'

    Applovin Corporation's stock is experiencing a significant surge following its Q1 results and positive guidance, with analysts labeling its valuation as 'cheap' and suggesting further upside potential. The company's consumer business segment is identified as a key driver for future growth. This positive sentiment is reinforced by sustained 'Overweight' and 'Outperform' ratings from major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse, indicating strong institutional confidence in the company's performance and market position. Investors are likely to see this as a signal for potential capital appreciation.

via Markets Gazette