Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)
適正価値ファンダメンタル
61
株価
$19.16
時価総額
$13.74B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Ares Capital is a business development company that lends directly to mid-sized private US businesses, mostly ones owned by private equity firms, instead of relying on banks or public bond markets. It is externally managed by an affiliate of Ares Management, which finds the loans, negotiates terms and monitors the borrowers, and it holds shares publicly so that individual investors can access private lending returns that are normally only open to large institutions.
収益の仕組み
Income comes mainly from interest earned on the loans in its portfolio, which are predominantly first lien senior secured loans sitting at the front of the repayment line if a borrower runs into trouble, plus some second lien and subordinated debt and a smaller amount of equity co-investments. As a regulated investment company it must pay out at least 90% of its taxable income as dividends, and it borrows money itself to increase the size of the portfolio it can hold relative to its equity capital.
競争優位性(moat)
規模の経済 · 狭いAs the largest publicly traded business development company, Ares Capital can write bigger cheques and access deals through the broader Ares Management origination platform in ways smaller direct lenders cannot easily match, and its size supports a lower cost of borrowing. That advantage is real but narrow: private credit has attracted heavy competition from other large BDCs, private equity firms' own credit arms and banks re-entering the space.
需要を左右する要因
中程度の景気循環性Deal volume tends to follow private equity buyout activity, which slows when financing is expensive or uncertain, but the interest income on an existing portfolio of hundreds of loans keeps flowing even when new deal-making pauses. The bigger swing factor is credit quality: in a weaker economy, more portfolio companies struggle to pay, and the loans themselves are what is exposed to the cycle rather than a product being bought or not.
主なリスク
- Leverage amplifies losses — Ares Capital borrows money to expand its loan portfolio beyond what its own capital would support; this magnifies gains in good times but also magnifies losses if portfolio credit quality deteriorates.
- Credit risk from portfolio companies — Borrowers are mid-sized private companies, often carrying meaningful debt of their own; an economic downturn would raise the share of loans on non-accrual status and increase the risk of losses on individual positions.
- Dependence on maintaining BDC and RIC tax status — Losing business development company status would reduce operating flexibility, and failing to maintain regulated investment company status would expose the company to corporate-level taxes, cutting into what is left to distribute to shareholders.
- Interest rate exposure — Much of the portfolio earns floating-rate interest, so falling rates reduce investment income directly, while the cost of the company's own borrowing also moves with rates and can squeeze the spread it earns.
- External management conflicts of interest — Because Ares Capital is managed by an affiliate of Ares Management rather than its own employees, the manager's fee incentives may not always align perfectly with what is best for shareholders, a standard risk of the externally managed structure.
強気材料
Buyers argue that Ares Capital's scale and access to the wider Ares Management origination platform give it first-lien-heavy deal flow that smaller lenders cannot match, that non-accrual levels remain below the sector's historical average, and that its size and diversification across hundreds of portfolio companies reduce the impact of any single credit problem.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that leverage means any broad deterioration in mid-market credit quality would hit shareholder returns harder than an unlevered lender, that heavy competition from other private credit funds is compressing the terms and pricing available on new loans, and that the externally managed structure leaves less direct alignment with shareholders than an internally managed peer.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年8月23日 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users
The second-largest listed business development company, it originates the same senior secured loans to private-equity-backed U.S. middle-market companies that Ares Capital bids for.
A middle-market specialist whose portfolio is over 90% first-lien loans to private-equity-sponsored borrowers, the identical customer base Ares Capital serves.
Backed by Blackstone's credit platform, it competes deal by deal with Ares Capital for first-lien loans to the same large sponsor-owned borrowers.
Another large listed BDC lending senior secured and subordinated debt to private U.S. middle-market companies, drawing on KKR's origination network to win the same mandates.
Competes for the same directly originated, structured loans to upper-middle-market U.S. companies, often on the same transactions Ares Capital underwrites.
A listed direct-lending vehicle targeting the same sponsor-backed U.S. middle-market borrowers with senior secured unitranche loans.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$3.11B
2025/12/31に終了した会計年度
純利益
$1.30B
2025/12/31に終了した会計年度
フリーキャッシュフロー
-
自己資本合計
$14.32B
負債合計
$16.92B
流動比率
1.67
利払い倍率
-
負債/EBITDA
-
一株当たり利益(EPS)
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
損益データがありません
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$23.92
現在株価
$19.16
安全マージン
+19.9%
適正価値レンジ
$15.55 - $32.29
使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
11.75
ROE
9.1%
P/B レシオ
0.98
P/FCF
-
粗利益率
-
ROIC
-
収益性レーダー
価値創造(経済的モート)
ROIC
-
WACC
5.9%
ROIC − WACC
-
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格(10)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 10.29%
- P/B Ratio 0.98
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- Revenue Growth 5Y 15.1%
- Analyst Consensus 80% Buy
- PEG Ratio 1.40
不合格(7)
- Price CAGR 1.51%
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- ROE 6.8%
- Earnings Surprise avg -2.7%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) -1.07
- Share Dilution 12.0%
- Piotroski F-Score 1/9
データなし(11)
- ROIC NaN%
- Gross Margin NaN%
- P/FCF NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Operating Margin NaN%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Net Margin Trend (invalid data)
Piotroski F-スコア
重大な財務上の懸念
利益の質
低品質:会計処理を調査してください
株式希薄化
新株を発行しており、所有権を希薄化している
機関投資家の保有
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Mitchell Scott Goldstein CPA | Co-Chairman, Partner & Co-Head of Ares Credit Group | 58 |
| Mr. Michael Lewis Smith | Co-Chairman of Board of Directors & Co-Head of Ares Credit Group | 54 |
| Mr. Michael J. Arougheti | Executive VP & Director | 53 |
| Mr. Kort Schnabel | CEO & Co-Head of U.S. Direct Lending | 48 |
| Mr. James Miller | President & Co-Head of U.S. Direct Lending | 48 |
| Mr. Bennett Rosenthal | Co-Founder, Director, Partner & Chairman of Private Equity Group | 62 |
| Mr. Scott C. Lem | CFO & Treasurer | 47 |
| Ms. Jana Markowicz | Chief Operating Officer | 44 |
| Mr. Won Jae Cho | Chief Accounting Officer | 42 |
| Mr. John W. Stilmar | Partner & Co-Head of Public Markets Investor Relations | - |
監査リスク
4
取締役会リスク
9
報酬リスク
5
株主権利リスク
6
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
業績推移
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for ARCC, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 18d agoPOSITIVEQueste 3 azioni sottovalutate potrebbero salire se la Fed alza i tassi questa settimana
The Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting is highly anticipated, with over 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. August core inflation data and hawkish commentary from Chairman Kevin Warsh have shifted market expectations away from easing. While higher borrowing costs generally pressure stocks, a rate increase could benefit select financial firms. Ares Capital, along with Starwood Property Trust and Ladder Capital, are identified as potential beneficiaries due to their specialization in lending, which could see improved earnings growth in a higher-rate environment. Investors should monitor these companies as potential beneficiaries of the Fed's policy shift.
- 3/31/2026NEUTRALAres Capital's Dividend Buffer Looks Intact, But Rate Sensitivity Could Shift The Narrative
Ares Capital Corporation's dividend coverage ratio remains robust, indicating financial stability and the ability to sustain payouts. However, the article highlights potential headwinds from interest rate sensitivity. While current conditions support the dividend, a sustained higher-rate environment could pressure earnings and the company's ability to maintain its payout levels without adjustments. Investors should monitor rate decisions and their impact on Ares Capital's net interest margin and overall profitability.
via Markets Gazette