Bilibili Inc. (BILI)
適正価値ファンダメンタル
60
株価
$14.78
時価総額
$6.19B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Bilibili operates one of China's largest online video and community platforms, built originally around anime, comics and games (ACG) culture and now covering a much wider range of user-generated and professionally produced video content. Users watch long-form and short-form videos, live broadcasts and licensed anime, and interact through the platform's signature scrolling 'bullet chat' comments overlaid on the video. The platform reached 366 million monthly active users and 113.0 million daily active users in the fourth quarter of 2025. Bilibili is incorporated in the Cayman Islands and operates its mainland China business through contractual arrangements with variable interest entities (VIEs); its shares trade on Nasdaq and in Hong Kong. It reports as a single operating segment, with revenue disclosed by line of business.
収益の仕組み
Bilibili does not charge for access to the platform. It earns money in four ways: from users, through premium memberships and through virtual gifts and other paid features in live broadcasting and elsewhere (grouped as value-added services); from brands and performance advertisers buying placements and in-feed formats; from mobile games, both exclusively licensed titles and in-house developed ones, monetised through in-game purchases; and from IP derivatives, merchandise and other smaller businesses. In fiscal 2025 total net revenues were RMB30.35 billion, up 13% year over year, and the company reported its first full year of GAAP profitability with net profit of RMB1.19 billion.
セグメント別売上高
Premium memberships, virtual gifting and paid features in live broadcasting, and other user-paid services. Revenue rose from RMB10.99 billion in 2024 to RMB11.93 billion in 2025.
Advertising space and in-feed formats sold to brands and performance advertisers reaching Bilibili's young audience. Revenue grew 23%, from RMB8.19 billion in 2024 to RMB10.06 billion in 2025.
In-game purchases from exclusively licensed and in-house developed mobile titles. Revenue rose from RMB5.61 billion in 2024 to RMB6.39 billion in 2025, helped by a full year of the licensed title San Guo: Mou Ding Tian Xia and the fourth-quarter launch of the in-house game Escape from Duckov.
Sales of merchandise tied to the platform's intellectual property, plus other smaller businesses. Revenue slipped from RMB2.03 billion in 2024 to RMB1.97 billion in 2025.
競争優位性(moat)
ネットワーク効果 · 狭いBilibili's advantage rests on a community that is hard to replicate: creators post where the audience and the commenting culture already are, and the audience stays for content that exists nowhere else, which is the classic two-sided loop. The brand also carries unusual identification among young Chinese users. The limits are real: the platform competes for the same attention as much larger short-video rivals, its advertising business faces the same buyers as they do, and the games line depends on titles it often licenses rather than owns — so the advantage looks durable within its niche rather than across online video as a whole.
需要を左右する要因
中程度の景気循環性The four revenue lines behave differently. Advertising — a third of revenue in 2025 — moves with Chinese brand and performance marketing budgets, which are cut quickly when the economy slows. Value-added services are steadier: memberships and live-streaming spending are small recurring amounts tied to habit rather than to the business cycle, though discretionary spending on virtual gifts can soften. Mobile games are driven less by the cycle than by the title pipeline and by the pace of regulatory approvals: revenue can jump on one successful launch and fade as a game ages. IP derivatives follow consumer discretionary spending. The overall mix sits between defensive and cyclical, with the advertising line as the main swing factor.
主なリスク
- The business runs through VIE contracts, not ownership — The 20-F states that the company relies on contractual arrangements with the VIEs and their shareholders for its mainland China operations, and that these may not be as effective in providing operational control as direct ownership. If the PRC government found that these arrangements do not comply with rules on foreign investment in internet businesses, or if those rules or their interpretation change, the company could face severe penalties.
- Pervasive PRC regulatory oversight — The filing warns that the PRC government's significant oversight over the business could result in a material adverse change in operations and in the value of the ADSs, and that uncertainties in the interpretation and enforcement of PRC laws limit the legal protections available to the company and to investors.
- Licences and approvals the business cannot operate without — The company lists as a risk that failure to obtain and maintain the licences and approvals required by the complex regulatory environment applicable to its mainland China businesses could materially and adversely affect its business, financial condition and results of operations.
- Game launches can slip or never happen — The filing states that the company cannot predict when new games will be commercially launched or how far they will penetrate the market: technical difficulties, lack of development capability, personnel and resource constraints, and failure to obtain governmental approvals can delay a launch or cause a game to be cancelled.
- US listing exposed to audit-inspection rules — The company discloses that the PCAOB had historically been unable to inspect its auditor, and that its ADSs may be prohibited from trading in the United States under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act.
- Keeping mobile users as habits shift — The company warns that if it cannot capture and retain the growing number of users accessing services through mobile devices, or is slower than competitors in developing attractive mobile products, it may fail to gain significant market share or may lose existing users.
強気材料
Buyers argue that 2025 was the year the model proved it works: revenue grew 13% to RMB30.35 billion and the company posted its first full year of GAAP profitability, RMB1.19 billion of net profit against a RMB1.36 billion loss in 2024, while daily active users still rose 10% to 113.0 million. They point to advertising as the engine — up 23% in a year — on the view that Bilibili's audience of young Chinese users is one the advertisers cannot easily reach elsewhere, and that monetisation per user is still low relative to that audience. They also note that games returned to growth, with a licensed title contributing a full year and an in-house developed game launching in the fourth quarter, suggesting the pipeline is no longer dependent on a single hit.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that the first profitable year came from a thin margin — RMB1.19 billion on RMB30.35 billion of revenue — and that a single weak advertising year or a game that fails to land would erase it. They point to the game line's dependence on titles the company licenses and on approvals it does not control, and to IP derivatives, which shrank in 2025. Above all they point to the structure and the jurisdiction: the mainland business is held through VIE contracts rather than ownership, the company itself warns that PRC oversight could materially change its operations, that licences can be lost, and that its ADSs could be barred from US trading under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act — risks that sit outside anything management can fix by executing well.
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
NetEase publishes the anime-styled mobile games in mainland China that compete for the same paying players who fund Bilibili's largest revenue line.
Kuaishou runs the other large user-generated video community in mainland China and competes with Bilibili for the same young viewers' screen time, the same creators and the same brand advertising and live-streaming tipping budgets.
Douyin and Xigua Video are the dominant destinations for video viewing in mainland China and take directly from Bilibili the hours of use and the advertiser spending on which its business depends.
iQIYI sells paid memberships and advertising around professionally produced series, films and Chinese animation, the same premium-content subscription that Bilibili offers its own members.
Tencent competes on both of Bilibili's fronts at once: Tencent Video and WeChat Channels for viewing time and anime licensing rights, and its mobile game publishing arm for the same Chinese players who spend inside Bilibili's games.
Youku bids for the same licensed series, films and animation catalogue and sells subscriptions and video advertising to the same mainland Chinese audience.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$31.42B
直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)
純利益
$1.54B
直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)
フリーキャッシュフロー
-
自己資本合計
$1.89B
負債合計
$9.51B
流動比率
1.32
利払い倍率
-
負債/EBITDA
2.18
一株当たり利益(EPS)
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$17.21
現在株価
$14.78
安全マージン
+14.1%
適正価値レンジ
$11.19 - $23.24
使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
28.34
ROE
10.1%
P/B レシオ
2.64
P/FCF
-
粗利益率
37.0%
ROIC
10.2%
収益性レーダー
価値創造(経済的モート)
ROIC
10.2%
WACC
3.2%
ROIC − WACC
+7.0 pp
ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格(10)
- ROIC 10.2%
- Gross Margin 37.0%
- P/B Ratio 2.64
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- ROE 9.9%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 20.4%
- Analyst Consensus 95% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 11.2%
- Net Margin Trend 3.9% vs -5.0%
不合格(4)
- Price CAGR 0.36%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- Piotroski F-Score 0/9
データなし(13)
- EPS data insufficient
- P/FCF NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Operating Margin NaN%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-スコア
重大な財務上の懸念
利益の質
低品質:会計処理を調査してください
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
機関投資家の保有
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Rui Chen | Chairman of the Board & CEO | 47 |
| Ms. Ni Li | Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors & COO | 39 |
| Mr. Yi Xu | Founder, President & Director | 35 |
| Mr. Xin Fan CPA | CFO & Joint Company Secretary | 46 |
| Ms. Juliet Yang | Executive Director of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Ying Tung Lai | Joint Company Secretary | - |
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
Latest News
Recent headlines for BILI, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 5/26/2026POSITIVEWhy Bilibili's Investment Story Looks More Attractive Now Vs. Traditional Peers
Bilibili Inc. presents a compelling investment narrative compared to traditional peers, suggesting a potential upside for investors. While specific financial figures or growth metrics are not detailed in this summary, the article implies that Bilibili's unique positioning within its market segment offers a more attractive risk-reward profile. Investors should consider Bilibili's distinct business model and growth drivers as potential catalysts for outperformance, especially if its competitive advantages are sustainable and its market penetration continues to expand. This outlook may lead to increased analyst coverage and potential price target upgrades.
via Markets Gazette