The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG)
割安ファンダメンタル
57
株価
$40.52
時価総額
$14.05B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Carlyle raises money from pension funds, insurers and wealthy individuals and puts it to work through investment funds it manages, buying companies, lending to them, or backing other funds. It earns fees for managing that money and, when investments are eventually sold at a profit, a cut of the gains. Its own balance sheet stays relatively small; the assets that matter belong to the funds, and Carlyle is paid for running them well.
収益の仕組み
Most revenue comes from management fees charged as a percentage of the capital investors have committed, which keeps coming in whether markets are up or down. On top of that, Carlyle earns performance fees only when a fund's investments are sold above an agreed return threshold, so this part of revenue swings with deal activity and market conditions. Growth depends on raising ever-larger new funds and on the pace at which existing investments can be profitably sold.
セグメント別売上高
Buyout, growth, real estate and infrastructure funds that take ownership stakes in companies and assets to improve and later sell them.
Funds that lend directly to companies or buy debt, spanning direct lending, opportunistic credit, asset-backed and insurance-related strategies.
Buys stakes in existing private equity funds from other investors and co-invests alongside them, rather than running buyout deals directly.
競争優位性（moat）
特許・ライセンス · 狭いCarlyle's edge is its track record and relationships with large institutional investors, built up over decades of fundraising — a reputation asset that is real but not exclusive. Rival firms with similarly long records compete for the same pool of capital, and an investor unhappy with returns can simply not commit to the next fund.
需要を左右する要因
景気循環型Both fundraising and the pace of profitable exits track the broader investment cycle: institutions commit more capital and deals get sold at better prices when markets are strong, and both slow when markets turn. Management fees on already-committed capital cushion the swings, but performance-related revenue moves with the cycle.
主なリスク
- Dependence on senior professionals — The company states that its business depends on senior investment professionals, including its chief executive, and that losing them or a loss of investor confidence in them could materially hurt results.
- Revenue variability — Revenue, earnings and cash flow can vary materially from period to period because performance fees depend on when and at what price investments are sold, making steady quarterly growth difficult to achieve.
- Fundraising is never guaranteed — Future fee revenue depends on raising successor funds of comparable or larger size. Investors are free to reduce commitments or move to competitors if past returns or terms disappoint them.
- Priority on investor interests over near-term results — The company may reduce fees, restrain the growth of assets under management, or otherwise act in the interest of fund investors even when that works against near-term shareholder results.
強気材料
Buyers argue that growing fee-related earnings and record fee-earning assets under management show the business scaling profitably, that diversification across private equity, credit and fund-of-funds smooths the cycle, and that a decades-long fundraising record gives Carlyle an edge in attracting the next round of institutional capital.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that performance-related revenue can swing sharply when deal markets slow, that the business leans heavily on a small group of senior professionals whose departure would be hard to replace, and that fundraising success is never assured from one fund cycle to the next.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
The largest diversified alternative asset manager, raising capital from the same pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and insurers Carlyle courts and bidding for the same buyout, credit and real estate deals worldwide.
A global buyout house of the same generation and scale as Carlyle, competing fund by fund for large leveraged buyouts, infrastructure and private credit mandates in North America, Europe and Asia.
Competes for the same institutional allocations in private equity and, above all, in private credit, where its insurance-backed platform goes after the direct-lending and asset-financing business Carlyle is also chasing.
A US buyout firm of comparable size that bids against Carlyle for control stakes in healthcare, technology and consumer companies and markets similar private equity, credit and real estate funds to the same investors.
Its direct-lending and credit franchise competes head-on with Carlyle Global Credit for the same middle-market borrowers and the same yield-seeking institutional money, alongside overlapping private equity and real assets funds.
The dominant European buyout and infrastructure manager, and Carlyle's most frequent rival in auctions for large continental European companies and in fundraising from European institutions.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$3.61B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
純利益
$364M
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$-3.37B
自己資本合計
$7.06B
負債合計
$22.06B
流動比率
0.56
利払い倍率
-
負債/EBITDA
-
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$73.04
現在株価
$40.52
安全マージン
+44.5%
適正価値レンジ
$47.48 - $98.61
使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
41.31
ROE
11.5%
P/B レシオ
1.96
P/FCF
-
粗利益率
-
ROIC
-
収益性レーダー
価値創造（経済的モート）
ROIC
-
WACC
12.3%
ROIC − WACC
-
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（10）
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 13.72%
- Price CAGR 10.10%
- P/B Ratio 1.96
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Low reliance on intangibles
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- Revenue Growth 5Y 10.3%
- Analyst Consensus 58% Buy
- Share Dilution 0.7%
不合格（9）
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Price below Graham Number
- ROE 6.6%
- Earnings Surprise avg -1.1%
- PEG Ratio 2.20
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) -10.99
- Net Margin Trend 10.1% vs 20.2%
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
データなし（9）
- ROIC NaN%
- Gross Margin NaN%
- P/FCF NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Operating Margin NaN%
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
Piotroski F-スコア
重大な財務上の懸念
利益の質
低品質：会計処理を調査してください
株式希薄化
株式数は安定している
機関投資家の保有
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Harvey Mitchell Schwartz | Partner, CEO & Director | 60 |
| Ms. Lindsay P. Lobue | Chief Operating Officer | 50 |
| Ms. Afsaneh Mashayekhi Beschloss | Director & Member of the Board of Directors | - |
| Mr. James H. Hance Jr., CPA | Operating Executive, Director & Member of Board of Director | 81 |
| Mr. William J. Shaw | Member of Board of Directors & Director | 79 |
| Ms. Lawton Wehle Fitt | Member of Board of Directors & Director | 72 |
| Mr. Anthony Welters J.D. | Member of Board of Directors & Director | 70 |
| Mr. Derica W. Rice | Director & Member of Board of Directors | 60 |
| Ms. Linda Hefner Filler | Member of Board of Directors & Director | 65 |
| Mr. David Mark Rubenstein J.D. | Co-Founder & Co-Chairman of the Board | 76 |
監査リスク
2
取締役会リスク
5
報酬リスク
9
株主権利リスク
7
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
業績推移
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for CG, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 16d agoNEGATIVECarlyle’s Thomas: AI Slowdown ‘More Likely Than Not’
Jason Thomas, Carlyle's Head of Global Research & Investment Strategy, expressed concerns about the current AI investment boom, suggesting a slowdown is 'more likely than not.' This outlook, shared from the sidelines of Carlyle's Global Investor Conference, implies potential headwinds for companies heavily invested in or reliant on AI technologies. Thomas also noted significant pressure on the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis-point rate hike. Investors monitoring the technology sector and private equity valuations may need to reassess growth expectations for AI-centric businesses.
- 8/5/2026NEUTRALCarlyle Says PE Exit Market Open for Sellers of ‘Good Companies’
Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) is observing an improvement in the private equity exit market, according to CFO Justin Plouffe. The firm is noting an accelerated pace for divesting investments across various sectors, indicating a more favorable environment for sellers of well-performing companies. This suggests that capital markets are becoming more receptive to transactions, potentially leading to increased deal activity and liquidity for private equity firms and their portfolio companies. Investors in Carlyle may see this as a positive sign for future returns, though the overall market impact remains to be seen.
- 7/21/2026NEUTRALCarlyle in Talks to Hand ESG Consulting Firm Over to Bridgepoint
Carlyle Group Inc. is reportedly in negotiations to transfer its sustainability consultancy, Anthesis Group, to its private credit provider, Bridgepoint Group Plc. This potential transaction suggests a restructuring or deleveraging effort by Carlyle, aiming to offload a non-core asset or manage its debt obligations. For investors, the outcome could impact Carlyle's balance sheet and its strategic focus. The news does not provide immediate financial figures or performance indicators for either company, thus presenting a neutral outlook pending further details on the deal's terms and implications.
- 7/3/2026NEUTRALCarlyle Hires Banks for $400 Million India IPO of RCM Business
Carlyle Group Inc. is reportedly preparing for a potential initial public offering (IPO) of its India-based healthcare revenue cycle management business, aiming for a valuation of approximately $400 million. The private equity giant has enlisted JM Financial Ltd. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to manage the process. While the IPO itself is a positive step for the business unit, the news primarily concerns the strategic divestment plans of Carlyle and the preparation for a new listing, rather than an immediate impact on Carlyle's current stock performance. Investors will await further details on the IPO's progress and valuation.
- 6/22/2026NEUTRALCarlyle Rethinks Portfolio Risk to Give Weather Insurance a Bigger Role
Carlyle Group Inc. is implementing a new framework to assess portfolio risk, explicitly incorporating the financial implications of severe weather events. This strategic shift aims to better reflect the impact of climate-related shocks on asset valuations. While the specific details of the framework and its immediate impact on Carlyle's portfolio are yet to be fully disclosed, the move signals a proactive approach to managing climate-related financial risks. Investors will be watching for how this integration affects performance metrics and future investment strategies.
- 6/12/2026NEUTRALDeal Dispatch: Carlyle Buys Chung Ho Group, Second Nature Brands Acquires Tillamook Country Smoker, GoHealth Bankruptcy
Carlyle Group Inc. has announced its acquisition of Chung Ho Group, a significant move in the private equity landscape. This deal, alongside other strategic transactions like Second Nature Brands acquiring Tillamook Country Smoker and Arcline acquiring Continental, highlights active deal-making. SGMO is exploring strategic alternatives, and ZOOZ is considering complementing its Bitcoin strategy, indicating varied corporate strategies. Mill Point's acquisition of Total Safety further underscores the dynamic M&A environment. Investors should monitor Carlyle's integration strategy for Chung Ho Group and the broader implications of these diverse corporate actions.
- 6/10/2026NEUTRALCarlyle Seeks Banks for India IPO of Healthcare RCM Provider
Carlyle Group Inc. is reportedly preparing for a potential initial public offering (IPO) in India for its recently acquired healthcare billing service business. The private equity giant has invited investment banks to pitch for advisory roles. This move signals Carlyle's strategy to monetize its investments through public markets, potentially unlocking significant value for its stakeholders. The specific details of the healthcare business and its valuation are yet to be disclosed, but the intention to list in India highlights the growing attractiveness of the Indian market for global investors and healthcare services.
- 5/7/2026NEGATIVECarlyle Hit By Massive Investment Losses, Revenue Plunges Nearly 74%
Carlyle Group Inc. reported a significant revenue decline of nearly 74%, falling from $973 million in Q1 2025 to $254 million in Q1 2026. This sharp drop in revenue indicates substantial investment losses and a considerable downturn in the company's financial performance. Investors will be closely monitoring the company's strategies to address these losses and stabilize its revenue streams. The magnitude of the decline suggests potential headwinds for the private equity firm and its portfolio.
via Markets Gazette