Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO)

収益の仕組み

The overwhelming majority of revenue is the one-off sale of a home. Cavco recognises revenue when a home is sold to an independent distributor or, in the retail channel, to the final household buyer; selling through its own stores captures the retail margin as well as the factory margin, which is why the average net revenue per home rose to $103,510 in fiscal 2026 from $97,864 in fiscal 2025 even though volumes grew less than revenue. It is not a subscription or recurring-revenue business: each sale has to be replaced by the next one. A small second stream is recurring and financial in nature — interest and servicing fees on the mortgage book, gains on loans sold to third-party investors, and insurance premiums earned over the life of the policies written by Standard Casualty. In fiscal 2026 financial services revenue grew mainly because more loans were sold after a long-term agreement was signed with a third-party investor.

セグメント別売上高

Cavco describes itself as one of the largest producers of manufactured homes in the United States, and its advantages are those of size and integration rather than of a protected product. Thirty-three production lines give it purchasing power on lumber, steel and appliances and let it spread the cost of meeting the federal HUD building code, which itself is a barrier to small entrants. Owning 92 retail stores and its own mortgage and insurance operations means Cavco can finance and insure the buyer when third-party credit for manufactured housing is scarce — a real advantage in a channel where lending is thin. What it does not have is a switching cost or a network: a home is bought once, buyers shop on price and availability, and a competing builder's home is a substitute. That is why this reads as a narrow, cost-and-scale advantage rather than a wide one.

This is housing, and it behaves like housing. Demand depends on household formation, on the price gap between a factory-built home and a site-built one, and above all on the cost and availability of credit for the buyer: manufactured-home loans are a thin, high-rate corner of consumer lending, so when rates rise the marginal buyer disappears. Cavco also describes a seasonal pattern — demand for its core new home products typically peaks in spring and summer and declines in winter, in line with the wider housing industry — which it says is partly offset by product diversification, since park model RVs, cabins and retirement or seasonal homes follow different rhythms. The counterweight to the cycle is that these homes compete on affordability: when site-built houses get too expensive, some demand moves down to this product rather than disappearing.

主なリスク

• Labour shortages and the price and availability of raw materials — The company states that its results can be adversely affected by labour shortages and by the pricing, availability or transportation costs of raw materials. Homes are assembled from lumber, steel, gypsum, insulation and appliances by a workforce of about 7,700; a squeeze on either input feeds straight into cost of sales.
• Warranty and construction defect claims — Cavco discloses that significant warranty and construction defect claims on factory-built housing could adversely affect its results. Homes are sold with warranties and defects can surface years after delivery, across thousands of units built to a common design.
• Rising cancellations of home sales orders — The filing lists an increase in the rate of cancellations of home sales orders as a risk to the business. Orders in backlog are not firm revenue: buyers who fail to obtain financing or change their minds can walk away, leaving production scheduled against demand that does not arrive. Backlog stood at $195 million at the end of fiscal 2026 against $197 million a year earlier.
• Exposure created by the vertically integrated finance and insurance businesses — The company states that its involvement in vertically integrated lines of business — manufactured housing consumer finance, commercial finance and insurance — exposes it to particular risks. Those businesses carry credit risk on borrowers, interest-rate risk on loans held for sale, and underwriting risk on policies; Standard Casualty's book is concentrated in Texas and exposed to spring storms and the hurricane season.
• Integration of acquisitions — Cavco discloses that it may fail to integrate past or future acquisitions and obtain the expected benefits, and that acquisitions may weigh on its liquidity. Fiscal 2026 included six months of operations from the acquired American Homestar business.
• Suppliers and subcontractors — The company notes that products supplied to it, or work performed by subcontractors, can expose it to risks that adversely affect the business — a defective component or poor installation work becomes Cavco's problem with the homeowner regardless of who caused it.
• Transportation casualty losses — Because finished homes are hauled by road to their sites, the company discloses that casualty losses associated with its transportation operations may be large and could hurt financial performance.
• Local or national emergencies and regulatory action — The first risk factor in the filing covers emergencies and state or federal regulatory action that restrict ordinary operations, naming effects on customer demand and the availability of financing for its products, on the supply chain and raw materials, on the availability of labour and the health and safety of the workforce, and on liquidity and access to capital markets.

The filing states that no independent distributor accounted for 10% or more of factory-built housing revenue in any fiscal year of the three-year period ended 28 March 2026, and it gives no top-customer share. Concentration is geographic rather than by customer: North Carolina and Arizona each accounted for 9% of fiscal 2026 independent-distributor sales, South Carolina 7%, Georgia 6%, and California, Florida, New York and Texas 5% each, with the remaining 49% spread across 40 other states and Canada. The Company-owned retail network is more concentrated still — 57 of the 92 stores are in Texas — so Texas housing conditions and Texas weather matter more to Cavco than any single buyer does.