Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)
適正価値ファンダメンタル
83
株価
$31.36
時価総額
$57.69B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Cenovus is a Canadian oil and gas producer that pumps crude, mainly from oil sands in Alberta, and also refines a portion of it into fuels through its own refineries in Canada and the United States. Owning both the wells and some of the refineries — an integrated model — means it captures margin at more than one stage: it sells raw crude to the market, and separately turns crude into products like gasoline and diesel that it also sells.
収益の仕組み
Revenue comes from selling barrels of crude oil, natural gas and refined products at prevailing market prices, so it rises and falls with global energy prices rather than with any pricing power of Cenovus's own. The upstream (production) business and the downstream (refining) business tend to move in opposite directions when oil prices swing, since cheap crude that hurts producers is a cheaper input for refiners, which partly smooths the group's combined results.
競争優位性（moat）
明確な優位性なし · なしCrude oil, natural gas and refined fuels are commodities: a barrel from Cenovus is interchangeable with a barrel from any other producer, and the price is set by the global market, not by Cenovus. Its long-lived oil sands reserves and integrated refining give it operational advantages, but no pricing power or customer lock-in that would qualify as a durable moat.
需要を左右する要因
景気循環型Results swing with the global price of oil and gas, which itself moves with world economic growth, OPEC+ supply decisions and geopolitical events far outside the company's control. A period of high prices can be followed within a year or two by a glut and a sharp downturn, and Cenovus's profitability follows that cycle closely.
主なリスク
- Commodity price volatility — Changes in oil and natural gas prices materially affect results, and the company has limited ability to control or predict where those prices go.
- Operational disruption — Risks inherent in operating oil sands extraction and refining facilities, including unplanned outages and production disruptions, can cut output and raise costs.
- Economic sensitivity — Changes to general economic, market and business conditions worldwide directly affect demand for oil and gas, and therefore the prices Cenovus can obtain.
- Cost and capital estimate accuracy — Results depend on the accuracy of estimates for production volumes, operating expenses, inflation, taxes, royalties and capital costs; misjudging any of these can erode expected returns on major projects.
- Climate-related risk — The company faces risks associated with climate change and with the assumptions it makes about future carbon regulation and the pace of energy transition, which could raise compliance costs or curtail future projects.
強気材料
Buyers argue that Cenovus's integrated model of oil sands production plus refining smooths the swings of a pure oil producer, that record 2025 output and a $3.9 billion annual profit show the business generates real cash even at moderate prices, and that its long-lived reserves give decades of visible production ahead.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that a business with no pricing power of its own lives or dies by a commodity cycle it cannot control, that oil sands extraction carries above-average operating and environmental costs, and that a serious push on climate policy could permanently impair the value of its long-lived reserves.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Cenovus's former oil sands partner is now a rival: through its Surmont thermal project it produces Canadian heavy crude for the same U.S. Gulf Coast and Midwest refiners Cenovus supplies, while competing globally for the same investment capital.
The closest comparable to Cenovus: a Canadian integrated producer that turns its own Alberta oil sands bitumen into refined fuels and sells them at the pump, competing for the same heavy-crude barrels, the same refining margins and the same Canadian fuel customers.
Another Canadian integrated company whose Kearl and Cold Lake oil sands production feeds its own refineries and the Esso and Mobil station network, putting it head-to-head with Cenovus in both heavy-oil production and Canadian fuel retailing.
Canada's largest oil sands producer, competing directly with Cenovus for the same heavy and thermal barrels, the same pipeline capacity out of Alberta and the same buyers of Canadian heavy crude.
A pure-play Canadian heavy oil producer whose Cold Lake and Lloydminster thermal projects sit in the same basins as Cenovus's Christina Lake, Foster Creek and Lloydminster assets and sell the same blended heavy barrel.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$59.56B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
純利益
$6.66B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$5.48B
自己資本合計
$24.43B
負債合計
$11.63B
流動比率
1.63
利払い倍率
-
負債/EBITDA
0.81
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$35.12
現在株価
$31.36
安全マージン
+10.7%
適正価値レンジ
$31.11 - $39.13
使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
12.22
ROE
20.9%
P/B レシオ
2.36
P/FCF
10.54
粗利益率
29.9%
ROIC
28.1%
収益性レーダー
価値創造（経済的モート）
ROIC
28.1%
WACC
7.0%
ROIC − WACC
+21.1 pp
ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（15）
- Price CAGR 7.47%
- ROIC 28.1%
- P/FCF 10.54
- P/B Ratio 2.36
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- ROE 21.0%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 30.3%
- Analyst Consensus 86% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 18.8%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 3.14
- Net Margin Trend 7.9% vs 5.8%
不合格（3）
- Gross Margin 29.9%
- CapEx intensity
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
データなし（9）
- EPS data insufficient
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Operating Margin NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-スコア
重大な財務上の懸念
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
機関投資家の保有
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Jonathan M. McKenzie CA | President, CEO & Non-Independent Director | 57 |
| Mr. Kam S. Sandhar CA | Executive VP & CFO | - |
| Mr. P. Andrew Dahlin | Executive VP & COO | - |
| Mr. Jeffery G. Lawson LLB | Executive VP of Corporate Development & Chief Sustainability Officer | 56 |
| Mr. John F. Soini | Executive Vice-President of Upstream Thermal & Atlantic Offshore | - |
| Ms. Susan M. Anderson | Senior Vice-President of Legal, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | - |
| Mr. Geoffrey T. Murray | Executive Vice-President of Commercial | - |
| Logan Popko | Senior Vice-President of Corporate & Operations Services, | - |
| Mr. Eric Zimpfer | Head of Downstream | - |
| Ms. Candace Newman | Senior Vice-President of Corporate Services | - |
監査リスク
2
取締役会リスク
7
報酬リスク
1
株主権利リスク
1
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
Latest News
Recent headlines for CVE, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 5/6/2026NEUTRALCenovus Energy Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcript
Cenovus Energy Inc. has released the complete transcript for its Q1 2026 Earnings Call. While the transcript provides detailed insights into the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and outlook for the upcoming quarters, it does not contain specific forward-looking financial figures or immediate performance indicators that would suggest a distinct positive or negative market reaction. Investors should review the transcript for a comprehensive understanding of the company's operational status and future plans.
- 5/6/2026NEGATIVECanada’s Carbon Tax Hinders Pipeline Plans, Cenovus CEO Says
Cenovus Energy CEO Alex Pourbaix stated that Alberta's proposed west coast oil pipeline project is being hindered by Canada's current climate policies. He emphasized the need for a policy shift towards promoting oil production from new projects to facilitate such infrastructure development. This suggests that stringent climate regulations are creating significant headwinds for major energy projects, potentially impacting future production and revenue for companies like Cenovus. Investors should monitor policy changes and their direct effect on project approvals and operational expansion.
via Markets Gazette