Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)
適正価値ファンダメンタル
72
株価
$222.91
時価総額
$11.45B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Erie Indemnity does not sell insurance policies itself. It manages the day-to-day operations — underwriting, claims handling, marketing, IT — for Erie Insurance Exchange, a separate policyholder-owned insurer that actually writes the auto, home and business coverage and carries the underwriting risk. Erie Indemnity is paid a fee for running the Exchange, not for the insurance itself.
収益の仕組み
The great majority of revenue is a management fee calculated as a percentage of the premiums the Exchange writes, capped at 25% and set each year by Erie Indemnity's own board. Because the fee is a share of premiums rather than of the Exchange's underwriting profit, Erie Indemnity's revenue does not depend on whether the Exchange's policies turn out to be profitable — only on how much premium the Exchange writes and on the fee rate the board chooses. A smaller stream reimburses the company for administrative services it also performs for the Exchange.
競争優位性（moat）
スイッチングコスト · 広いErie Indemnity's relationship with the Exchange is set by a long-standing subscriber's agreement, not a contract that gets rebid: the Exchange has no practical way to replace its manager, and Erie Indemnity's own board sets the fee it earns. The advantage is structural rather than competitive — it does not depend on out-competing a rival for the business.
需要を左右する要因
ディフェンシブAuto, home and business insurance are recurring necessities, so the premium base the management fee is calculated on tends to grow steadily rather than swing with the economic cycle. The main variable is not consumer demand but the fee rate the board sets each year and how much premium growth the Exchange achieves.
主なリスク
- Dependence on one client — Management fees from the Exchange are the company's principal source of revenue. A reduction in the fee rate, or a significant drop in the premiums the Exchange writes, would directly hurt revenue and profitability.
- Fee rate set at the board's discretion — The management fee rate, while capped at 25%, is set each year by Erie Indemnity's board and can be changed. A lower rate in a future year would reduce revenue even if the Exchange's premium volume keeps growing.
- No control over underwriting outcomes — Erie Indemnity manages underwriting and claims for the Exchange but does not own the underwriting risk itself; a period of poor claims experience at the Exchange can still pressure the relationship and future fee-setting decisions even though it does not directly hit Erie Indemnity's own balance sheet.
強気材料
Buyers argue that a fee tied to premium volume rather than underwriting profit gives Erie Indemnity a more stable, capital-light revenue stream than a traditional insurer, that the structural relationship with the Exchange has no practical competitive threat, and that steady growth in the Exchange's premiums supports steady growth in fee revenue.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that revenue depends entirely on a single counterparty and on a fee rate the company's own board could choose to lower, that Erie Indemnity has essentially no other business to fall back on, and that its fortunes are tied to how well the Exchange manages a book of insurance risk it does not directly control.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Cincinnati Financial sells personal auto, homeowners and small-commercial cover through the same independent agencies and across much of the same Midwest and Mid-Atlantic territory Erie depends on.
Allstate writes personal auto and homeowners nationwide, including Erie's core Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and Maryland markets.
Progressive competes for the same personal auto customers both through independent agents and by selling direct to consumers, the channel Erie's filings single out as a competitive pressure.
Travelers distributes personal home and auto as well as commercial multi-peril through independent agencies, overlapping with Erie on both sides of its book.
Auto-Owners is the other large agency-distributed regional mutual competing for the same auto and home policyholders inside the very agencies that also place Erie's business.
State Farm is the largest US personal auto and homeowners writer and the main captive-agent alternative for households in every state Erie operates in.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$4.12B
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
純利益
$577M
直近12か月（2026/6/30まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$571M
自己資本合計
$2.28B
負債合計
$1.07B
流動比率
1.25
利払い倍率
-
負債/EBITDA
0.00
一株当たり利益（EPS）
EPSデータがありません
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$226.21
現在株価
$222.91
安全マージン
+1.5%
適正価値レンジ
$147.04 - $305.39
使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
17.83
ROE
24.5%
P/B レシオ
4.10
P/FCF
18.30
粗利益率
-
ROIC
22.5%
収益性レーダー
価値創造（経済的モート）
ROIC
22.5%
WACC
8.0%
ROIC − WACC
+14.5 pp
ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（15）
- Price CAGR 7.22%
- ROIC 22.5%
- P/FCF 18.30
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 17.9%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 24.5%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 9.9%
- Analyst Consensus 75% Buy
- PEG Ratio 1.09
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.21
不合格（6）
- P/B Ratio 4.10
- CapEx intensity
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- Earnings Surprise avg -7.8%
- Net Margin Trend 14.0% vs 15.7%
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9
データなし（6）
- EPS data insufficient
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- Price below Graham Number
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-スコア
重大な財務上の懸念
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
機関投資家の保有
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Timothy Gerard NeCastro C.I.C., C.P.A. | President & CEO | 65 |
| Ms. Julie Marie Pelkowski C.P.A. | Executive VP & CFO | 55 |
| Mr. Parthasarathy Srinivasa | Executive VP & Chief Information Officer | 53 |
| Mr. Brian William Bolash Esq. | Executive VP, Corporate Secretary & General Counsel | 59 |
| Mr. Douglas Edward Smith C.P.C.U., FCAS, MAAA | Executive Vice President of Sales & Products | 51 |
| Mr. Bill Matrogran | Vice President of Construction Management & Operations | - |
| Mr. Ronald Steven Habursky C.F.A. | Senior VP & Chief Investment Officer | - |
| Mr. Scott W. Beilharz | Vice President of Capital Management & Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Charles Michael Fletcher C.I.C. | Senior Vice President of Sales & Marketing | - |
| Mr. Sean David Dugan AU, C.I.C., C.P.C.U. | Executive VP of Human Resources & Corporate Services | 56 |
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
業績推移
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for ERIE, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 2/25/2026NEUTRALErie Indemnity (ERIE) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
Erie Indemnity has announced the release of its Q4 2025 earnings transcript. While this is a routine event for publicly traded companies, the current lack of specific content means investors are still awaiting crucial information. The analysis of these details is vital for assessing the insurance company's financial performance and anticipating any potential impact on its stock value. Market participants will closely monitor the full release to identify growth trends, profit margins, and future outlooks that could influence investment decisions, keeping the stock in a holding pattern.
via Markets Gazette