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Genmab A/S (GMAB)

割安
HealthcareBiotechnologyDenmark

ファンダメンタル

84

株価

$34.77

時価総額

$21.42B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Genmab, a Danish biotech, discovers antibody drugs and then largely lets bigger pharmaceutical companies manufacture and sell them, collecting a royalty on those sales instead. Its most important invention, daratumumab, is a multiple-myeloma antibody that Johnson & Johnson sells worldwide as DARZALEX; Genmab gets a cut of every dose sold. It also sells two of its own antibody drugs directly, EPKINLY/TEPKINLY for lymphoma, and keeps a pipeline of earlier-stage antibodies aimed at cancer and other diseases.

収益の仕組み

Most revenue is royalty income: a contractual percentage of what Johnson & Johnson and Novartis book selling DARZALEX and Kesimpta, which Genmab receives without bearing the cost of manufacturing, marketing or a sales force for those drugs. A smaller and faster-growing slice is net product sales from EPKINLY/TEPKINLY, which Genmab commercializes itself in some territories. The royalty model keeps margins very high but ties most of Genmab's fortunes to a single antibody it does not control commercially.

セグメント別売上高

Royalty revenue83.4%

Contractual royalties on DARZALEX sales by Johnson & Johnson and Kesimpta sales by Novartis, the core of Genmab's income.

Net product sales10.2%

Direct sales of EPKINLY/TEPKINLY, the lymphoma antibody Genmab commercializes itself in the territories it retains.

Milestone, collaboration and other revenue6.4%

One-time and reimbursement payments from partners tied to development progress, a small and less predictable part of total revenue.

競争優位性(moat)

特許・ライセンス · 狭い

Genmab's royalty stream is protected by patents on daratumumab and by an exclusive license that bars Genmab itself from developing a competing antibody against the same CD38 target. That protection is time-limited: the relevant patents begin expiring in the late 2020s and early 2030s across the US, Europe and Japan, after which royalty rates and revenue are expected to decline.

需要を左右する要因

ディフェンシブ

Cancer treatment spending is not discretionary: patients and physicians do not defer chemotherapy or a myeloma drug because of the economy, and the drugs are largely covered by insurance or national health systems. Genmab's own revenue growth depends more on how many patients Johnson & Johnson's sales force reaches with DARZALEX and on Genmab's own launch execution for EPKINLY than on macroeconomic conditions.

主なリスク

  • Dependence on a single partnered drug — About two-thirds of revenue comes from DARZALEX royalties, a drug Genmab does not manufacture or sell itself. Genmab's fortunes hinge on decisions and execution by Johnson & Johnson, a company it does not control.
  • Patent expiration reduces future royalties — Core daratumumab patents begin expiring around 2029 in the US and later in Europe and Japan; once they lapse, generic or biosimilar competition is expected to erode DARZALEX sales and Genmab's royalty income with them.
  • Disputes with licensing partners — Genmab has previously entered binding arbitration with Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) over terms of the daratumumab license agreement, showing that even its most important partnership is not free of contractual disagreement.
  • Manufacturing reliance on third parties — Genmab relies on a limited number of third-party contract manufacturers, some based in China, to produce the antibody drugs it sells directly, exposing it to supply disruption or geopolitical trade risk.

顧客集中度

主要顧客が売上高の66%を占める

DARZALEX royalties from Johnson & Johnson alone accounted for about 66% of Genmab's 2025 revenue. A change in DARZALEX sales, pricing or J&J's marketing effort moves the majority of Genmab's income.

強気材料

Buyers argue that royalty income on a market-leading, still-growing drug like DARZALEX carries almost no commercial cost or execution risk for Genmab, that EPKINLY's rapid growth shows the company can also succeed as a direct seller, and that years remain before the daratumumab patent cliff meaningfully dents revenue.

弱気材料

Sellers worry that a company earning two-thirds of its revenue from one partner's drug has limited control over its own destiny, that the patent cliff later this decade will eventually shrink the royalty stream that funds everything else, and that Genmab's own commercial drugs are not yet large enough to replace that income if the transition goes slowly.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 18.8Score: 71Market cap: $75.15B

Regeneron's odronextamab (Ordspono) is a CD20xCD3 bispecific approved for the same relapsed B-cell lymphomas as EPKINLY, and its myeloma bispecific targets the same haematology prescribers.

P/E: 13.7Score: 72Market cap: $130.49B

Bristol Myers Squibb's CAR-T therapies Breyanzi in lymphoma and Abecma in myeloma are the alternative treatment chosen instead of Genmab's antibodies for the same relapsed patients at the same line of therapy.

Sanofi S.A.SAN

Sanofi's Sarclisa (isatuximab) is the only other approved anti-CD38 antibody for multiple myeloma and fights for the same patients and prescriptions as DARZALEX, the drug that generates the majority of Genmab's royalty revenue.

Roche Holding AGROG

Roche sells Lunsumio (mosunetuzumab) and Columvi (glofitamab), the two CD20xCD3 bispecific antibodies that compete head-to-head with Genmab's EPKINLY in relapsed follicular lymphoma and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$4.13B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$788M

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$1.13B

自己資本合計

$5.85B

負債合計

$7.03B

流動比率

2.02

利払い倍率

20.49

負債/EBITDA

3.95

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース割安

適正価値

$133.66

現在株価

$34.77

安全マージン

+74.0%

適正価値レンジ

$86.88 - $180.44

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$39.14
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):$393.06
利益倍率(P/E):$28.17
グレアムの成長公式:$24.55
収益力価値(EPV):$159.12
正当化されたP/B:$171.35
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
中間サイクル利益:算出に必要なデータが不足しています
売上高倍率:$263.74
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (22B / 3H / 2S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+36.61%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

22.47

ROE

16.5%

P/B レシオ

0.37

P/FCF

1.90

粗利益率

93.6%

ROIC

8.6%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

8.6%

WACC

8.3%

ROIC − WACC

+0.3 pp

ROICはおおむね資本コストと同水準です。企業はかろうじて資本コストを賄えている状態です。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(21)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 8.44%
  • Price CAGR 7.68%
  • ROIC 8.6%
  • Gross Margin 93.6%
  • P/FCF 1.90
  • P/B Ratio 0.37
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 33.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • ROE 13.6%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 19.2%
  • Analyst Consensus 81% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.23
  • Share Dilution -6.5%

不合格(4)

  • Earnings Surprise avg -1.8%
  • PEG Ratio 3.88
  • Net Margin Trend 25.9% vs 36.3%
  • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

データなし(3)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles

Piotroski F-スコア

4/9

まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要

score
criteria

利益の質

1.23

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-6.5%

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Dr. Jan G.J. van de Winkel Ph.D.Co-Founder, President & CEO64
Mr. Anthony Pagano CPAExecutive VP & CFO47
Mr. Rayne WallerExecutive VP & Chief Technical Operations Officer57
Mr. Gregory David Emil MuellerExecutive VP, General Counsel & Chief Legal Officer54
Mr. Christopher CozicExecutive VP & Chief People Officer47
Dr. Martine J. van Vugt Ph.D.Executive VP & Chief Strategy Officer54
Mr. Martin SchultzSenior Director, Head of Development Business Partnership & Strategy and Director50
Dr. Judith V. Klimovsky M.D.Executive VP & Chief Development Officer67
Dr. Tahamtan Ahmadi M.D., Ph.D.Executive VP, Chief Medical Officer & Head of Experimental Medicines52
Dr. Mijke Zachariasse Ph.D.VP, Head of Antibody Research Materials & Director52

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

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