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Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE)

割高
TechnologySoftware - ApplicationUnited States

ファンダメンタル

72

株価

$155.25

時価総額

$12.38B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Guidewire builds the software that property and casualty insurers use to run their core business: issuing policies, processing claims and billing customers. Insurers rent this software instead of maintaining their own aging systems built decades ago. Guidewire hosts it on its own cloud platform, handles the updates, and sells consulting and implementation services to help each insurer configure the system to its own products and rules.

収益の仕組み

Most revenue is subscription and support fees paid over the life of a multi-year cloud contract, which recur every year the insurer keeps using the system. A smaller, declining share is term licenses for insurers still running the older on-premise version. Services revenue comes from the lengthy, hands-on projects needed to configure and migrate an insurer's policies onto the platform, which can take a year or more per customer.

セグメント別売上高

Subscription and Support60.8%

Recurring cloud-hosting and support fees paid by insurers running Guidewire's PolicyCenter, ClaimCenter and BillingCenter systems.

License20.9%

Term licenses sold mainly to insurers still running the older, self-hosted version of the software rather than the cloud platform.

Services18.2%

Consulting and implementation work to configure and migrate an insurer's policies, claims and billing processes onto the platform.

競争優位性(moat)

スイッチングコスト · 狭い

Once an insurer has spent a year or more configuring its policies, rating rules and claims workflows inside Guidewire's system, ripping it out means redoing that work on a competing platform while keeping the business running. That friction, more than the software itself, is what keeps existing customers renewing rather than switching to a rival core-systems vendor.

需要を左右する要因

中程度の景気循環性

Insurers buy Guidewire's systems as multi-year technology investments funded from their own IT budgets, which they can defer or accelerate depending on their profitability and how urgently they need to replace aging systems. Demand is not driven by end-consumer spending, so it is less exposed to a typical recession, but a large contract's timing can still slip if an insurer's own results are under pressure.

主なリスク

  • Reliance on a small number of large customers — The company discloses that a relatively small number of large insurance customers generate a meaningful share of revenue, giving those customers substantial negotiating leverage on price and terms.
  • Cloud market may not evolve as expected — Guidewire's strategy depends on insurers continuing to adopt cloud-based core systems; if that shift slows due to cost, security or reliability concerns, renewal rates and new sales could suffer.
  • Long and unpredictable sales and implementation cycles — Selling to large insurers and then implementing the software involves lengthy, variable cycles that can take many months or years, making individual deals and their timing hard to predict.
  • Competition from other core-systems and cloud vendors — The market for insurance core systems is competitive and changing quickly as customer preferences shift toward cloud deployment, and rivals or new entrants could erode Guidewire's position.

顧客集中度

主要顧客が売上高の22%を占める

In fiscal 2024 Guidewire's ten largest customers together accounted for about 22% of total revenue, giving those large insurers meaningful leverage to negotiate price and contract terms at renewal time.

強気材料

Buyers argue that the shift of large insurers onto Guidewire's cloud platform is still in its early stages, that the switching costs built into a fully configured core system make renewals highly likely, and that subscription revenue growing faster than the rest of the business signals durable, compounding demand.

弱気材料

Sellers worry that a small number of very large customers hold real negotiating power over price, that long implementation projects make growth lumpy and hard to predict, and that newer, AI-native software vendors could eventually challenge Guidewire's position in a market it does not yet fully dominate.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Duck Creek Technologies, Inc.Not tracked

Named first among Guidewire's competitors in its 10-K, Duck Creek sells the same cloud policy, billing and claims core suite to the same North American property and casualty insurers.

Sapiens International Corporation N.V.Not tracked

Sapiens competes for the same core-system replacement contracts, with particular strength among European and Asia-Pacific insurers that also want life and annuity lines on one vendor; it was taken private by Advent International and delisted from Nasdaq in December 2025.

MajescoNot tracked

Majesco offers cloud policy, billing and claims platforms aimed at the small and mid-sized carriers Guidewire pursues below its Tier-1 accounts.

Insurity LLCNot tracked

Insurity sells competing core and analytics software to North American property and casualty carriers and managing general agents, overlapping directly with Guidewire's product footprint.

EIS Group, Inc.Not tracked

EIS pitches an API-first insurance core platform to the same insurers weighing a move off legacy systems, competing deal by deal on the same policy and claims workloads.

Origami Risk LLCNot tracked

Named by Guidewire in its 10-K, Origami Risk sells cloud policy, billing and claims administration to insurers, pools and self-insured programs, competing for the same claims and underwriting budgets.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$1.48B

直近12か月(2026/7/31まで)

純利益

$139M

直近12か月(2026/7/31まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$378M

自己資本合計

$1.19B

負債合計

$1.38B

流動比率

1.79

利払い倍率

11.25

負債/EBITDA

4.02

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース割高

適正価値

$110.10

現在株価

$155.25

安全マージン

-41.0%

適正価値レンジ

$71.57 - $148.64

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$213.29
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):$84.17
利益倍率(P/E):$58.39
グレアムの成長公式:$26.37
収益力価値(EPV):$14.01
正当化されたP/B:$14.45
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):$32.63
中間サイクル利益:$17.06
売上高倍率:$89.88
アナリスト・コンセンサス:強い買い (19B / 3H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+2.84%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

87.47

ROE

11.7%

P/B レシオ

9.79

P/FCF

30.96

粗利益率

64.2%

ROIC

6.2%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

6.2%

WACC

9.6%

ROIC − WACC

-3.4 pp

ROICが資本コストを下回っています。投資した1ドルごとに企業は価値を破壊しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(21)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 11.16%
  • Price CAGR 11.98%
  • ROIC 6.2%
  • Gross Margin 64.2%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 10.2%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 10.0%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 14.7%
  • Analyst Consensus 86% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 16.2%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.80
  • Share Dilution -0.8%
  • Net Margin Trend 9.4% vs 5.8%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

不合格(5)

  • P/FCF 30.96
  • P/B Ratio 9.79
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)

データなし(2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-スコア

7/9

財務健全性が高い

score
criteria

利益の質

2.80

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-0.8%

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Michael George RosenbaumCEO & Director53
Mr. John MullenPresident52
Mr. Jeffrey Elliott CooperChief Financial Officer49
Mr. David F. PetersonSenior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & Chief Accounting Officer64
Mr. James Winston King J.D.Chief Administrative Officer, General Counsel & Secretary53
Mr. Chet MandairChief Information Officer-
Mr. Garo ToomajanianInvestor Relations-
Mr. Brian DesmondChief Marketing Officer-
Ms. Brigette McInnis-DayChief People Officer-
Mr. Steven SherrySenior Vice President of Strategic Accounts68

監査リスク

1

取締役会リスク

3

報酬リスク

4

株主権利リスク

2

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-09-11

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-06-05

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-09-30

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for GWRE, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/4/2026NEGATIVE
    Guidewire Software Posts Better-Than-Expected Q3 Report, But Stock Drops

    Guidewire Software reported Q3 results that surpassed analyst expectations, yet the company's stock experienced a decline. While specific figures were not detailed in the provided snippet, the market's reaction suggests that forward-looking guidance or other qualitative factors may have disappointed investors. This divergence between reported earnings and stock performance highlights the importance of future outlook and market sentiment in stock valuation, potentially signaling underlying concerns about future growth or competitive pressures despite current operational successes.

  • 3/6/2026POSITIVE
    These Analysts Revise Their Forecasts On Guidewire Software Following Q2 Results

    Guidewire Software (GWRE) announced robust Q2 financial results, surpassing both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations. The company further bolstered investor sentiment by elevating its fiscal year 2026 financial projections. This positive performance spurred a notable 4.7% surge in its stock price. While analyst sentiment shows some divergence, with price target adjustments in both directions, the company's strong operational execution and optimistic forward guidance suggest underlying strength. Investors should monitor the sustainability of this growth trajectory and the market's reaction to the mixed analyst outlook.

  • 3/6/2026NEUTRAL
    Guidewire (GWRE) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

    The Q2 2026 earnings call transcript for Guidewire Software Inc. (GWRE) has been released. While the specific content is not available, the release of such transcripts is standard practice for publicly traded companies. Investors typically analyze these documents for details on financial performance, future outlook, business strategies, and management's responses to analyst questions. The availability of the transcript allows for in-depth analysis, but without specific content details, the stock's impact remains neutral pending further information.

via Markets Gazette