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H World Group Limited (HTHT)

適正価値
Consumer CyclicalLodgingChina

ファンダメンタル

71

株価

$33.70

時価総額

$103.71B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

H World operates and franchises hotels under brands spanning budget to upscale, mostly in China (HanTing, Ibis, Orange, Joya) and, since acquiring Deutsche Hospitality, in Europe under Steigenberger and related names. Rather than owning most of its properties, the company signs manachise and franchise agreements: hotel owners fund the building, and H World supplies the brand, reservation system, training and standards in exchange for fees. It runs one of China's largest hotel networks by room count.

収益の仕組み

Most rooms — 93% as of early 2026 — operate under the manachised and franchised model, where H World earns a fee based on a percentage of the franchisee's hotel revenue plus system and reservation charges, rather than paying for the building or the staff. That asset-light structure means franchise fee income grew faster than the company's overall revenue and now supplies most of its gross operating profit. A small remaining share of hotels is leased and directly operated, carrying real estate costs the franchised hotels do not.

セグメント別売上高

Legacy-Huazhu81%

The original China hotel business — HanTing, Ibis, Orange and other brands — operated mostly through manachise and franchise agreements.

Legacy-DH19%

Deutsche Hospitality's European hotels under Steigenberger and related brands, acquired to extend the group beyond China.

競争優位性(moat)

ブランド · 狭い

A large membership loyalty program and a portfolio of recognized brands make H World hotels a default choice for repeat domestic travelers, and its scale gives it purchasing and system advantages a small independent hotel cannot match. Chinese hotel groups like Jinjiang and BTG offer similar loyalty programs and comparable scale, so the advantage is real but not unique.

需要を左右する要因

景気循環型

Hotel demand tracks business and leisure travel, both of which contract sharply when the economy weakens or when travel restrictions return, as seen during the pandemic. The manachise model shifts some of that risk onto hotel owners rather than H World directly, but franchise fee income still falls when the hotels themselves see fewer bookings.

主なリスク

  • VIE structure and Chinese regulatory risk — H World's structure relies on contractual arrangements rather than direct ownership of some China operations; a change in how Chinese authorities treat this structure could affect its validity or the company's control.
  • Cross-border data regulation — Hotel reservations involve cross-border data transfers subject to Chinese cybersecurity and data security approval requirements that could tighten or change with little notice.
  • US listing and audit access risk — Tensions over US regulators' access to audit work on China-based companies, and broader US-China friction, could affect the company's ability to remain listed on a US exchange.
  • Reliance on franchisees to protect the brand — With 93% of rooms now manachised or franchised, service quality and brand standards depend on independent hotel owners H World does not directly control.

強気材料

Buyers argue that the asset-light manachise model lets H World grow its hotel network and franchise fee income without funding real estate itself, and that a leading loyalty program and multi-brand portfolio in China's large domestic travel market support pricing power over time.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that regulatory shifts around the VIE structure, cross-border data rules or US listing access could disrupt the business with little warning, and that ceding day-to-day control to thousands of franchisees makes consistent brand quality harder to guarantee as the network grows.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 15.5Score: 73Market cap: $3.64B

The largest upper-midscale chain in China, it competes directly with H World's Crystal Orange, Manxin and Orange brands for business travellers in tier-one and tier-two cities.

P/E: 36.8Score: 80Market cap: $91.66B

The biggest international operator in China, it competes with H World's upscale brands for the same corporate accounts and hotel developers, and its loyalty programme pulls at the same repeat travellers.

Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co., Ltd. (上海锦江国际酒店股份有限公司)600754.SS

China's largest hotel group by room count, competing with H World for the same domestic travellers and the same franchisee owners across the economy and midscale brands, and also in Europe through its Louvre Hotels arm.

BTG Hotels (Group) Co., Ltd. (首旅酒店集团股份有限公司)600258.SS

Owner of the Home Inns and Jianguo brands, it is the other large domestic chain disputing the same budget and midscale segment in the same Chinese cities where H World runs HanTing and JI Hotel.

GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. (格林酒店集团)GHG

A franchise-driven Chinese chain concentrated in lower-tier cities, it courts the same price-sensitive guests and the same small hotel owners that H World signs up for HanTing and Ni Hao.

Accor S.A.AC.PA

Accor competes with H World on two fronts: in Europe its Novotel and Mercure hotels face H World's Steigenberger and IntercityHotel properties, and in China its midscale brands target the same guests.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$26.60B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$5.04B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$7.37B

自己資本合計

$16.90B

負債合計

$34.23B

流動比率

1.21

利払い倍率

-

負債/EBITDA

3.85

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース適正価値

適正価値

$34.67

現在株価

$33.70

安全マージン

+2.8%

適正価値レンジ

$22.54 - $46.81

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$47.65
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):$46.33
利益倍率(P/E):$16.35
グレアムの成長公式:$17.91
収益力価値(EPV):$19.52
正当化されたP/B:$27.56
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):$23.90
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
中間サイクル利益:算出に必要なデータが不足しています
売上高倍率:$14.02
アナリスト・コンセンサス:強い買い (22B / 1H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:-5.53%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

29.89

ROE

38.1%

P/B レシオ

6.14

P/FCF

14.07

粗利益率

41.1%

ROIC

12.8%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

12.8%

WACC

7.1%

ROIC − WACC

+5.7 pp

ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(13)

  • ROIC 12.8%
  • Gross Margin 41.1%
  • P/FCF 14.07
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • ROE 40.5%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 19.9%
  • Analyst Consensus 96% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.73
  • Net Margin Trend 20.1% vs 12.8%

不合格(5)

  • Price CAGR -1.00%
  • P/B Ratio 6.14
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -3.7%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

データなし(9)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-スコア

2/9

重大な財務上の懸念

score
criteria

利益の質

1.73

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Qi JiFounder & Executive Chairman58
Mr. Hui JinChief Executive Officer47
Ms. Xinxin LiuPresident46
Mr. Junrui YuChief Financial Officer44
Mr. Dong LiChief Accounting Officer & Deputy CFO-
Ms. Ivy LuoHead of Investor Relations-
Mr. Yao ChenCompany Secretary & Director of Legal Affairs-
Ms. Fei YeDeputy CFO & VP of Strategic Investment and Capital Market-
Ms. Jihong HeChief Strategy Officer53
Yu IdaSenior Manager of Investor Relations-

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

Latest News

Recent headlines for HTHT, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 5/15/2026NEUTRAL
    H World Group Reports Q1 2026 Results: Full Earnings Call Transcript

    H World Group Limited has released its Q1 2026 earnings call transcript. While the transcript provides detailed insights into the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook, it does not contain specific financial figures or forward-looking statements that would indicate a significant immediate impact on the stock price. Investors should review the transcript for qualitative information regarding operational efficiency, market positioning, and management's commentary on industry trends.

via Markets Gazette