lululemon athletica inc. (LULU)
割安ファンダメンタル
83
株価
$98.14
時価総額
$11.25B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Lululemon designs and sells premium athletic apparel and accessories — leggings, yoga wear, outerwear — built around a technical, performance-oriented positioning that supports higher prices than mainstream sportswear brands. Unlike most apparel companies, it sells mostly through its own stores and website rather than through department stores or third-party retailers, which lets it control pricing and the in-store experience directly.
収益の仕組み
Nearly all revenue comes from selling apparel and accessories directly to consumers, split between company-operated stores and e-commerce, with only a small wholesale and licensing contribution. Because it controls its own retail channel, lululemon has historically relied on scarcity and full-price selling rather than heavy discounting, though markdown activity has increased recently as growth in its home North American market has slowed.
競争優位性（moat）
ブランド · 狭いLululemon built a loyal community around its brand and technical product quality that has supported premium pricing for years, reinforced by a direct retail model that keeps the shopping experience consistent. That advantage has weakened lately: revenue in its core Americas market has been flat to declining even as newer competitors like Alo Yoga and Vuori chip away at its positioning.
需要を左右する要因
景気循環型Premium apparel is discretionary spending that consumers cut back on before necessities when budgets tighten, and lululemon's pricing sits well above mainstream athletic wear, making it more exposed to a pullback than value-oriented competitors. Growth has become increasingly dependent on international expansion, especially China, to offset a maturing North American market.
主なリスク
- Slowing growth in the core Americas market — Net revenue in the Americas has recently declined even as international regions grew, raising the question of whether the home market is approaching saturation or losing share to newer competitors.
- Reliance on continued brand desirability — Premium pricing only holds as long as the brand stays culturally relevant; if consumer tastes shift toward newer athleisure labels, lululemon would likely have to discount more heavily, compressing margins.
- Growing reliance on China for growth — China Mainland has become one of the fastest-growing regions for the company, which increases exposure to Chinese consumer sentiment, currency movements and geopolitical or regulatory friction between China and the United States.
- International sourcing and tariff exposure — Apparel is manufactured through contract factories across several countries; changes in tariffs or trade policy directly raise input costs that the company must either absorb or pass on to price-sensitive customers.
強気材料
Buyers argue that international expansion, led by China's strong double-digit growth, can more than offset a maturing North American business, and that lululemon's direct retail model and brand strength still support pricing that mass-market competitors cannot replicate.
弱気材料
Sellers fear that a declining Americas business signals the brand has lost some of its premium cachet to newer athleisure labels, and that increased markdown activity shows lululemon is already having to compete more on price than its positioning was built to require.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Nike is the largest seller of performance athletic apparel worldwide and competes with lululemon for the same women's training, running and yoga wardrobe, both in its own stores and direct-to-consumer channels.
adidas competes for the same training, running and studio apparel customer, and is lululemon's most direct rival in the European and Chinese markets it is expanding into.
Alo Yoga sells premium yoga and studio-to-street apparel at lululemon price points and in the same city shopping districts, and roughly two thirds of its shoppers also buy from lululemon.
Vuori targets the same premium activewear customer with comparable prices and mall and street-level stores, and about half of its shoppers also shop at lululemon.
Through its Athleta banner, Gap sells performance and lifestyle apparel for women and girls in North American stores and online, the core segment lululemon built its business on.
Under Armour competes for the same technical training apparel and footwear purchases in North America and Europe, though at generally lower price points than lululemon.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$11.09B
直近12か月（2026/8/2まで）
純利益
$1.42B
直近12か月（2026/8/2まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$922M
自己資本合計
$4.96B
負債合計
$3.49B
流動比率
2.19
利払い倍率
-
負債/EBITDA
0.79
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$291.89
現在株価
$98.14
安全マージン
+66.4%
適正価値レンジ
$189.73 - $394.05
使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
7.90
ROE
31.8%
P/B レシオ
2.12
P/FCF
7.50
粗利益率
56.1%
ROIC
23.4%
収益性レーダー
価値創造（経済的モート）
ROIC
23.4%
WACC
7.8%
ROIC − WACC
+15.6 pp
ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（21）
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 20.59%
- ROIC 23.4%
- Gross Margin 56.1%
- P/FCF 7.50
- P/B Ratio 2.12
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 17.8%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- ROE 29.7%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 20.3%
- Earnings Surprise avg 6.6%
- PEG Ratio 0.34
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.40
- Share Dilution -3.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
不合格（5）
- Price CAGR 4.64%
- CapEx intensity
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Analyst Consensus 5% Buy
- Net Margin Trend 12.8% vs 16.4%
データなし（2）
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
Piotroski F-スコア
まちまちのシグナル：一部の領域に注意が必要
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
機関投資家の保有
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Ms. Meghan C. Frank | Interim Co-CEO & CFO | 48 |
| Mr. Andre Maestrini | Interim Co-CEO, President & Chief Commercial Officer | 61 |
| Mr. Edward Dagnese | Chief Supply Chain Officer | 59 |
| Ms. Nicole Neuburger | Chief Brand & Product Activation Officer | 43 |
| Mr. Howard Brett Tubin | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Shannon Higginson J.D. | Chief Legal & Compliance Officer | - |
| Ms. Susan Gelinas | Chief People & Culture Officer | - |
| Jennifer Battersby | Senior Vice President of Product Engine | - |
| Ms. Stacia Jones | VP and Global Head of Inclusion, Diversity, Equity & Action (IDEA) | - |
| Ms. Elizabeth Binder | Chief Merchandising Officer | - |
監査リスク
7
取締役会リスク
8
報酬リスク
10
株主権利リスク
9
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
業績推移
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for LULU, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 20d agoNEGATIVELululemon’s new CEO inherits a mess that looks like the one she left at Nike
Lululemon's newly appointed CEO inherits a challenging turnaround situation, with the company struggling to regain consumer interest in its athletic apparel. The article suggests the new leadership faces significant hurdles, drawing parallels to previous difficulties encountered at Nike. This implies a need for substantial strategic shifts and product innovation to revitalize brand appeal and sales momentum. Investors will be closely watching for concrete plans to address declining demand and competitive pressures in the athleisure market.
- 21d agoNEGATIVELululemon’s Newest Bear Sees More Pain for Stock After 81% Rout
BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage on Lululemon Athletica Inc. with an 'underperform' rating, citing concerns that the athletic wear company is losing market share to competitors and experiencing accelerating sales declines. This pessimistic outlook follows an 81% rout in the stock price, suggesting that a turnaround will be challenging and protracted. Investors should note that the initiation of coverage with a bearish stance by a significant financial institution often precedes further downward pressure on the stock, as it may influence institutional and retail investor sentiment.
- 24d agoPOSITIVEBurry chiama Lululemon il 'trickster' del suo portafoglio: compra il crollo
Michael Burry, known for his contrarian investment style, has revealed a significant stake in Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU), calling it the 'trickster' in his portfolio. Despite LULU shares plummeting over 50% year-to-date due to disappointing product launches, declining North American sales, and a revised earnings forecast pushing the stock below $100, Burry is actively buying. He believes the market is overreacting and pricing current issues as permanent, rather than anticipating a potential recovery. Burry's strategy focuses on acquiring the stock at a depressed valuation, betting on a turnaround rather than immediate earnings growth.
- 27d agoNEGATIVELululemon Drops to Eight-Year Low With New CEO Inheriting a Mess
Lululemon Athletica Inc. has revised its full-year financial outlook downwards for the second consecutive quarter, signaling significant challenges for incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill. The company now anticipates revenue between $10.35 billion and $10.5 billion for the fiscal year ending early 2027, a reduction from its prior forecast. This marks the first reported decline in comparable sales since the pandemic era. The lowered outlook suggests potential headwinds in consumer demand or competitive pressures impacting the athletic apparel giant.
- 28d agoNEGATIVELululemon bets on ‘away from body’ pants as customers sour on form-fitting leggings
Lululemon's stock is under pressure as the company shifts its product strategy towards 'away from body' pants, signaling a potential departure from its core form-fitting leggings. This pivot comes amid customer dissatisfaction with its current fashion assortment and a disappointing outlook provided by the company. Analysts are scrutinizing this strategic change, which could impact sales and brand perception. Investors are watching closely to see if this new direction can reignite growth or alienate its loyal customer base.
via Markets Gazette