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Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA)

適正価値
EnergyOil & Gas MidstreamUnited States

ファンダメンタル

69

株価

$23.64

時価総額

$17.39B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Plains All American gathers, transports, stores and markets crude oil and natural gas liquids across the United States and Canada, mostly out of the Permian Basin in West Texas. It owns pipelines, storage terminals, rail and trucking assets that move oil from wellheads to refineries and export docks. It is structured as a master limited partnership, so unitholders receive its earnings mostly as large periodic cash distributions rather than through share buybacks or dividend growth in the ordinary sense.

収益の仕組み

Two very different revenue streams sit inside the same segments. Pipeline transportation earns a contracted fee per barrel moved, largely independent of the oil price. Alongside it, Plains buys crude oil from producers and resells it to refiners at close to market price — a business that books enormous revenue because it passes through the full commodity price, but keeps only a thin margin. That mix is why segment revenue figures look dominated by trading rather than by the pipeline economics that actually drive profit.

競争優位性(moat)

規模の経済 · 狭い

Building a new pipeline network across the Permian Basin requires billions of dollars, years of permitting and secured rights of way, so an established gathering system is hard to replicate quickly. But several large rivals have built competing pipelines out of the same basin, so the advantage protects Plains' existing footprint more than it keeps competitors from entering new corridors.

需要を左右する要因

景気循環型

Pipeline volumes follow how much oil producers are pumping, which follows the price of oil — when producers cut drilling, less crude needs moving. Long-term contracts and minimum-volume commitments cushion the tariff business from quarter-to-quarter swings, but the marketing side is directly exposed to oil price moves, so overall results still rise and fall with the commodity cycle.

主なリスク

  • Revenue concentrated in one customer — ExxonMobil accounted for 30% of 2024 revenue and the share has grown each of the prior two years; a change in that single relationship would move results materially.
  • Exposed to crude oil prices and drilling activity — Pipeline volumes and the marketing business both depend on how much crude producers extract and ship, which falls when oil prices or drilling economics weaken.
  • Concentrated in the Permian Basin — A large share of assets and growth sits in one producing region; a slowdown, infrastructure bottleneck or regulatory setback there affects the company more than a diversified peer.
  • Regulatory and permitting opposition — New pipeline capacity requires government permits and rights of way that face growing environmental and community opposition, which can delay or block projects the company is counting on.

顧客集中度

主要顧客が売上高の30%を占める

In its 2024 fiscal year, ExxonMobil and its subsidiaries alone accounted for 30% of revenue, up from 26% in 2023 and 20% in 2022 — a concentration that has been rising, not falling.

強気材料

Buyers argue that long-term contracts and minimum-volume commitments make the tariff business more stable than the headline commodity exposure suggests, and that Permian production growth keeps filling a pipeline network that would cost billions to replicate.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that a slowdown in Permian drilling would leave pipeline capacity underused, that a large share of revenue riding on one customer's decisions is a structural weakness, and that the thin margins on the commodity marketing side leave little room for error.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 14.7Score: 66Market cap: $55.86B

After absorbing Magellan Midstream, ONEOK competes for the same crude transport and Cushing-area storage business, even where the two are partners on the BridgeTex pipeline.

P/E: 19.3Score: 64Market cap: $68.21B

Kinder Morgan's crude and condensate pipelines and Houston-area terminals compete for the same Permian and Eagle Ford shippers moving barrels to the Gulf Coast.

Enterprise Products Partners L.P.EPD

Enterprise runs competing Permian Basin crude gathering and long-haul systems to the Gulf Coast, chasing the same producer barrels and the same shipper contracts as Plains' Basin and Cactus pipelines.

Energy Transfer LPET

Energy Transfer's Permian Express system and crude gathering assets carry Permian and Eagle Ford barrels to the same Texas Gulf Coast outlets Plains serves.

MPLX LPMPLX

MPLX offers crude gathering, pipeline transport and terminalling in the Permian, Bakken and Mid-Continent, competing for the same producer volumes and tariff revenue.

Enbridge Inc.ENB

Enbridge gathers and transports western Canadian crude on the routes where Plains' Canadian pipeline and terminal network competes for the same barrels.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$52.31B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$2.77B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$2.29B

自己資本合計

$9.84B

負債合計

-

流動比率

1.12

利払い倍率

2.59

負債/EBITDA

3.62

一株当たり利益(EPS)

EPSデータがありません

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

景気循環株適正価値

適正価値

$27.39

現在株価

$23.64

安全マージン

+13.7%

適正価値レンジ

$22.45 - $32.33

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$26.00
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):この種の企業には適用されません
利益倍率(P/E):$17.44
グレアムの成長公式:この種の企業には適用されません
収益力価値(EPV):$22.97
正当化されたP/B:この種の企業には適用されません
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):この種の企業には適用されません
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):この種の企業には適用されません
中間サイクル利益:$32.43
売上高倍率:この種の企業には適用されません
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (12B / 10H / 2S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+12.95%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

6.24

ROE

27.5%

P/B レシオ

-

P/FCF

7.05

粗利益率

8.7%

ROIC

5.5%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

5.5%

WACC

7.0%

ROIC − WACC

-1.5 pp

ROICが資本コストを下回っています。投資した1ドルごとに企業は価値を破壊しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(15)

  • ROIC 5.6%
  • P/FCF 7.05
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 27.5%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 13.7%
  • Analyst Consensus 50% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 3.6%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.08
  • Net Margin Trend 5.3% vs 2.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

不合格(5)

  • Price CAGR -2.75%
  • Gross Margin 8.7%
  • Operating Margin 3.1%
  • CapEx intensity
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)

データなし(7)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • P/B Ratio NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-スコア

5/9

まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要

score
criteria

利益の質

1.08

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Wilfred C.W. ChiangPresident, CEO & Chairman of Plains All American GP LLC64
Mr. Al P. SwansonExecutive VP & CFO of Plains All American GP LLC61
Mr. Christopher R. ChandlerExecutive VP & COO of Plains All American GP LLC53
Mr. Richard Kelly McGeeExecutive VP, General Counsel & Secretary of Plains All American GP LLC64
Mr. Gregory L. ArmstrongSenior Advisor to the CEO & Director of Plains All American GP LLC67
Mr. Harry N. PefanisSenior Advisor to CEO & Director of Plains All American GP LLC68
Mr. Jeremy L. GoebelExecutive VP & Chief Commercial Officer of Plains All American GP LLC47
Mr. Russ MontgomeryVP of Accounting & Chief Accounting Officer of Plains All American GP LLC49
Mr. Blake Michael FernandezVice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. Scott SillSenior VP of Operations - Plains Midstream Canada Ulc - Plains All American Gp Llc-General Partner62

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-02-27

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-08-10

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-09-29

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for PAA, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 5/8/2026POSITIVE
    Plains All American Banks On Oil Strength, Raises Profit Outlook

    Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) has raised its profit outlook, signaling strong confidence in its business performance and the prevailing oil market conditions. While Q1 2026 results showed a revenue beat at $12.47 billion, the EPS figure fell short of expectations. However, the company's decision to increase its profit forecast suggests that management anticipates robust operational execution and favorable commodity prices to more than offset any short-term earnings discrepancies. This forward-looking guidance is a key indicator for investors, pointing towards potential future value creation and stability.

  • 5/8/2026NEUTRAL
    Plains All American Earnings Are Imminent; These Most Accurate Analysts Revise Forecasts Ahead Of Earnings Call

    Plains All American Pipeline is set to report its Q1 earnings on May 8th. Analysts project earnings per share (EPS) of $0.42 on revenue of $12.02 billion. Recent analyst ratings show a generally positive sentiment, with Raymond James maintaining an 'Outperform' rating in February 2022 and Bernstein upgrading the stock to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' in January 2022. While these ratings suggest a favorable outlook, the upcoming earnings report will be crucial for confirming investor expectations and potentially driving future stock performance. The market will be closely watching the company's financial results and forward guidance.

via Markets Gazette