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PACCAR Inc. (PCAR)

適正価値
IndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachineryUnited States

ファンダメンタル

64

株価

$109.45

時価総額

$58.25B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

PACCAR designs and manufactures heavy- and medium-duty trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF brand names, sold through a network of independent dealers across North America, Europe and other markets. Beyond building trucks, it also sells replacement parts to keep existing fleets running and lends money to dealers and truck buyers through its own finance arm, so a customer can buy a truck, service it and finance it all through PACCAR.

収益の仕組み

Most revenue comes from selling new trucks outright to fleets and owner-operators, a business with thin margins that swings with how many trucks the industry orders each year. Parts sales are steadier and more profitable, since a truck already on the road needs maintenance regardless of the economic cycle, and the financial services arm earns interest income on loans and leases, adding a third, more stable stream on top of manufacturing.

セグメント別売上高

Truck68.1%

Manufacture and sale of Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF heavy- and medium-duty trucks, the core and most cyclical part of the business.

Parts24.2%

Replacement parts sold to keep the large existing fleet of PACCAR trucks running, a steadier and higher-margin business than new truck sales.

Financial Services7.8%

Loans and leases provided to dealers and truck buyers across North America, Europe, Australia and South America to finance PACCAR vehicles.

競争優位性(moat)

規模の経済 · 狭い

Building heavy trucks at scale requires an established dealer network, decades of engineering and emissions-compliance investment, and manufacturing capacity that a new entrant cannot assemble quickly, keeping the field limited to a handful of global players. That barrier protects PACCAR's position but does not remove genuine competition: Daimler Truck, Traton's Volvo and Scania brands, and Navistar all fight for the same fleet customers.

需要を左右する要因

景気循環型

Truck orders follow the freight cycle closely: when shipping volumes and freight rates are strong, fleets replace and expand their trucks, and when freight demand softens, orders can fall sharply within a year, as PACCAR's own truck segment revenue decline in 2025 showed. Parts and financial services smooth this out somewhat, but the core manufacturing business remains genuinely cyclical.

主なリスク

  • Truck order cyclicality — Truck segment revenue fell 14% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025 as freight market conditions weakened, illustrating how quickly the core business can contract in a downturn.
  • Competition from other global truck makers — Daimler Truck, Traton's Volvo, Scania and Navistar brands compete directly for the same fleet and owner-operator customers across PACCAR's core markets.
  • Emissions and regulatory compliance costs — Tightening emissions standards in North America and Europe require continual investment in new engine and powertrain technology, adding cost and execution risk to every truck generation.
  • Tariffs and global supply chain exposure — PACCAR sources components and sells trucks across multiple countries, so changes in tariffs or trade policy can raise costs or disrupt production and sales in a given region.
  • Credit risk in the finance arm — PACCAR Financial Services holds a large portfolio of loans and leases to truck buyers; a downturn that hurts trucking businesses broadly would also raise defaults on that portfolio.

強気材料

Buyers argue that PACCAR Parts keeps delivering record, high-margin revenue that cushions the cyclical truck business, that decades of engineering and dealer relationships make the company one of only a handful of credible global heavy-truck makers, and that Financial Services adds a steady profit stream through the cycle.

弱気材料

Sellers worry that the core truck business is genuinely cyclical and already showing a double-digit revenue decline as freight markets soften, that emissions regulation keeps forcing costly technology investment, and that competition from Daimler Truck and Traton's brands limits pricing power in a downturn.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 12.5Score: 71Market cap: $31.82B

Its Freightliner and Western Star brands are the largest sellers of Class 8 trucks in the United States and Canada, the same fleet customers Kenworth and Peterbilt sell to, and its Mercedes-Benz Trucks unit is DAF's biggest rival in Europe.

AB VolvoNot tracked

Volvo Trucks and Mack together hold about 18% of the North American Class 8 market and Volvo Trucks is among the top European heavy-duty brands, competing with PACCAR on long-haul and vocational trucks plus the parts and service business that follows them.

TRATON SE8TRA

Through International Motors (formerly Navistar) in North America and MAN and Scania in Europe, TRATON sells heavy and medium trucks to the same haulage fleets on both continents where PACCAR operates.

Iveco Group N.V.Not tracked

Iveco is one of the six principal competitors DAF faces in the European commercial vehicle market, disputing the same heavy- and medium-duty fleet orders across the European Union.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$27.82B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$2.50B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$3.67B

自己資本合計

$19.26B

負債合計

$25.07B

流動比率

0.71

利払い倍率

-

負債/EBITDA

4.53

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース適正価値

適正価値

$128.75

現在株価

$109.45

安全マージン

+15.0%

適正価値レンジ

$86.39 - $171.11

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$144.80
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):$178.15
利益倍率(P/E):$78.67
グレアムの成長公式:$140.87
収益力価値(EPV):$54.50
正当化されたP/B:$48.62
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):$47.43
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):$84.32
中間サイクル利益:算出に必要なデータが不足しています
売上高倍率:$149.93
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (11B / 14H / 1S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+3.53%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

23.07

ROE

12.3%

P/B レシオ

2.84

P/FCF

15.64

粗利益率

20.0%

ROIC

-

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

-

WACC

7.8%

ROIC − WACC

-

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(16)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 10.16%
  • P/FCF 15.64
  • P/B Ratio 2.84
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 12.7%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 8.7%
  • PEG Ratio 1.86
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.73
  • Share Dilution -0.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

不合格(7)

  • EPS CAGR 1.77%
  • Gross Margin 20.0%
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Analyst Consensus 42% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg -1.5%
  • Net Margin Trend 9.0% vs 9.9%

データなし(5)

  • ROIC NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-スコア

5/9

まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要

score
criteria

利益の質

1.73

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

0.0%

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. R. Preston FeightCEO & Director57
Mr. Kevin D. BaneyPresident54
Mr. Brice J. PoplawskiSenior VP & CFO60
Mr. Mark C. PigottExecutive Chairman71
Mr. John N. RichExecutive VP & CTO55
Ms. A. Lily LeyVP & Chief Information Officer59
Mr. Ken HastingsSenior Director of Investor Relations-
Mr. Michael K. WaltonVP & General Counsel59
Paulo Henrique BolgarVP & Chief Human Resources Officer56
Laura J. BlochSenior Vice President47

監査リスク

2

取締役会リスク

9

報酬リスク

4

株主権利リスク

5

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-02-18

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-07-29

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-07-28

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for PCAR, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 16d agoNEUTRAL
    Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index: PACCAR (PCAR)

    This Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index feature delves into PACCAR's diverse operations, encompassing its truck manufacturing, parts sales, and financing segments. Key factors influencing its future outlook include the current freight cycle dynamics, record-breaking parts revenue, upcoming 2027 emissions regulations, and advancements in new powertrain technologies. Investors should monitor these elements for potential impacts on PACCAR's performance within the index.

via Markets Gazette