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Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB)

割安
IndustrialsAerospace & DefenseUnited States

ファンダメンタル

40

株価

$70.84

時価総額

$47.07B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Rocket Lab builds and launches rockets, and increasingly builds the satellites that fly on them. Its Electron rocket carries small satellites into orbit for government agencies and commercial operators who cannot fill a larger vehicle alone, and it is developing a bigger rocket, Neutron, aimed at the larger payloads that today mostly go to SpaceX. Alongside launch, its Space Systems division designs and manufactures satellite components and full spacecraft, a business it has grown mainly through acquisitions.

収益の仕組み

Launch Services revenue is booked when Electron missions fly, priced per launch and per payload mass, so it depends on how many rockets get built and successfully flown in a given period. Space Systems revenue instead comes from selling hardware and engineering services under contracts that can run for months before a single item ships, so it recognizes revenue progressively as work is completed. Neutron has not yet flown commercially, so today's revenue is still almost entirely Electron launches and Space Systems contracts.

セグメント別売上高

Space Systems66.9%

Design and manufacture of satellite components and complete spacecraft, built into a larger business mainly through acquisitions.

Launch Services33.1%

Electron rocket launches for government and commercial small-satellite customers, priced per mission and payload mass carried.

競争優位性(moat)

特許・ライセンス · 狭い

Rocket Lab is one of very few companies anywhere that has repeatedly and reliably launched orbital rockets, a track record and set of government certifications that take years to earn and that most new entrants do not have. That edge is real in the small-launch niche, but SpaceX dominates the broader launch market by cost and cadence, and Neutron still has to prove itself before Rocket Lab can compete for larger payloads.

需要を左右する要因

中程度の景気循環性

Government contracts, a large share of both segments, tend to be multi-year and relatively insulated from short-term economic swings, but they depend on national space and defense budgets that can shift with policy priorities. Commercial satellite demand is more cyclical, tied to how much capital satellite operators are able to raise and deploy at any given time.

主なリスク

  • Concentration in government funding — A large share of revenue across both segments ultimately depends on US government space and defense budgets, and a shift in agency priorities or a funding delay can slip contracts and revenue.
  • Neutron development and execution risk — The larger Neutron rocket has not yet flown commercially and its timeline has already slipped; a further delay or a launch failure would set back Rocket Lab's ability to compete for bigger payloads.
  • Launch failures and mission risk — A single launch failure can destroy a customer's payload, trigger contract penalties, and ground the launch schedule for months while the cause is investigated and fixed.
  • Integration risk from rapid acquisitions — Space Systems has grown largely by acquiring other companies; folding their operations, contracts and engineering teams into Rocket Lab carries execution risk beyond organic growth.

顧客集中度

As of the end of 2024, Lockheed Martin and Dynetics each accounted for 15% of accounts receivable, and Rocket Lab's largest counterparty overall is the US government, whose funding decisions affect a large share of both segments.

強気材料

Buyers argue that Rocket Lab's proven launch reliability and growing Space Systems business give it a rare, credible position as a full-stack space company beyond SpaceX, that Neutron opens a much larger addressable market once it flies, and that a fast-growing backlog shows real demand ahead of that capacity.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that Neutron's delays push out the payoff for a company still spending heavily to develop it, that SpaceX's scale and pricing dominate the broader launch market Rocket Lab is trying to enter, and that heavy reliance on government budgets and a handful of large counterparties leaves results exposed to decisions Rocket Lab does not control.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$769M

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$-165M

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$-322M

自己資本合計

$1.72B

負債合計

$603M

流動比率

5.48

利払い倍率

8.64

負債/EBITDA

-

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース割安

適正価値

$109.37

現在株価

$70.84

安全マージン

+35.2%

適正価値レンジ

$103.90 - $114.84

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$109.37
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
利益倍率(P/E):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
グレアムの成長公式:算出に必要なデータが不足しています
収益力価値(EPV):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
正当化されたP/B:算出に必要なデータが不足しています
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
中間サイクル利益:算出に必要なデータが不足しています
売上高倍率:$3.47
アナリスト・コンセンサス:強い買い (21B / 5H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:-4.58%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

-

ROE

-11.5%

P/B レシオ

11.94

P/FCF

-

粗利益率

37.3%

ROIC

-4.8%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

-4.8%

WACC

18.0%

ROIC − WACC

-22.8 pp

ROICが資本コストを下回っています。投資した1ドルごとに企業は価値を破壊しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(11)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 38.17%
  • Gross Margin 37.3%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 76.5%
  • Analyst Consensus 81% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 21.4%
  • Net Margin Trend -21.5% vs -45.9%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

不合格(9)

  • ROIC -4.8%
  • P/B Ratio 11.94
  • Operating Margin -29.1%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • ROE -7.6%
  • Share Dilution 7.0%

データなし(7)

  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)

Piotroski F-スコア

5/9

まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要

score
criteria

利益の質

-

低品質:会計処理を調査してください

株式希薄化

7.0%

新株を発行しており、所有権を希薄化している

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Sir Peter BeckFounder, Chairman, President & CEO48
Mr. Adam C. SpiceCFO & Treasurer56
Mr. Frank KleinChief Operations Officer52
Mr. Arjun L. Kampani J.D.Senior VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary53
Mr. Agostino Ricupati CPAVP, Corporate Controller & Chief Accounting Officer58
Ms. Morgan Bailey ConnaughtonVice President of Marketing & Communications-
Ms. Connie LundgrenVice President of People & Culture-
Mr. Shaun O'DonnellChief Engineer of Special Projects47
Mr. Ehson MoslehSpace Systems Chief Engineer-
Mr. Marvin Bradford Clevenger Ph.D.President of Rocket Lab USA Inc.-

監査リスク

7

取締役会リスク

9

報酬リスク

9

株主権利リスク

8

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-02-26

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-08-10

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-09-15

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for RKLB, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 56m agoPOSITIVE
    Rocket Lab in rally dopo maxi-accordo con Synspective

    Rocket Lab USA Inc. experienced a significant rally, trading up 2.90% following the announcement of a multi-year agreement with Japan's Synspective. The deal secures 20 launches for Synspective's satellite constellation. This substantial contract underscores Rocket Lab's strong position in the launch services market and provides significant revenue visibility for the coming years. Investors are likely to view this as a positive development, indicating continued demand for the company's launch capabilities and potential for future growth.

  • 9d agoPOSITIVE
    Le azioni Rocket Lab hanno creato un pattern rialzista: è il momento di comprare?

    Rocket Lab USA, Inc. shares are showing a strong bullish pattern, having bounced from a recent low of $60 to trade just above it. The stock has formed a double-bottom pattern at the $60 mark, with a neckline resistance at $86.45. This technical setup, combined with investor buying on dips, suggests potential for a short-term continuation of the upward trend. The formation indicates a potential reversal from recent lows, signaling renewed investor interest and a possible upward trajectory for the stock.

  • 22d agoNEUTRAL
    Azioni Rocket Lab giù del 56% dal massimo annuale: opportunità d'acquisto?

    Rocket Lab USA, Inc. shares have seen a significant decline, falling 56% from their annual high of $150 to the current $65. Despite this price drop, the company has achieved several key milestones, including new contracts with Space Force, Viasat, and MDA, and the release of its Inverted Metamorphic (IMM) Apex solar cell. Analysts suggest the current pullback might present a buying opportunity, potentially forming a double-bottom pattern. The underlying demand for Rocket Lab's space services remains strong, indicating potential for future recovery and growth.

  • 9/2/2026POSITIVE
    Cathie Wood acquista $31.6M di Rocket Lab: crede che la svendita sia esagerata?

    ARK Investment Management, led by Cathie Wood, has significantly increased its stake in Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ: RKLB), acquiring approximately $31.6 million worth of shares on Tuesday, following a $44 million purchase over two days. This substantial buying activity from a prominent growth-focused fund manager comes despite recent stock price pressure and a narrowing launch window for Neutron, alongside a competitor securing a NASA contract. ARK's conviction suggests they believe the market's reaction to these events is an overreaction, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors who share this long-term growth outlook for the space launch and satellite technology company.

  • 8/18/2026POSITIVE
    Le azioni Rocket Lab volano: un pattern raro indica rialzi, ma c’è un rischio

    Rocket Lab USA, Inc. shares have surged from a low of $58.25 to $82, buoyed by strong earnings and an expanding backlog. The company's stock experienced a significant uplift following a major agreement with Viasat, a key player in satellite communications. Rocket Lab will provide its high-performance Lightning spacecraft platform for Viasat's payload. This development, coupled with a rare bullish double-bottom pattern formation, suggests further short-term upside potential for RKLB investors. The deal underscores Rocket Lab's growing influence in the space sector.

  • 8/10/2026NEGATIVE
    Rocket Lab reveals some big plans, but its stock is dropping on mixed earnings

    Rocket Lab USA, Inc. reported mixed financial results, leading to a stock price decline despite ambitious expansion plans. The company is focusing on extending its European presence and growing its order backlog, signaling potential future revenue streams. However, the immediate market reaction suggests that current earnings or forward guidance did not meet investor expectations, overshadowing the long-term strategic initiatives. Investors will be closely monitoring the execution of these expansion plans and their impact on profitability in upcoming quarters.

  • 8/10/2026POSITIVE
    RocketLab Rises on Space Interest; Moderna Moves on Flu Shot | Stock Movers

    RocketLab USA Inc. saw its shares climb, continuing a positive trend from the previous Friday. This upward movement follows recent earnings reports from SpaceX, indicating a broader positive sentiment within the space industry. Investors are likely reacting to the competitive landscape and potential growth opportunities highlighted by these industry players. The renewed interest in space exploration and commercialization, coupled with SpaceX's performance, appears to be boosting investor confidence in RocketLab's prospects.

  • 7/8/2026POSITIVE
    Rocket Lab’s stock could surge 250% as the company takes a page out of SpaceX’s book, analyst says

    Morgan Stanley has upgraded its outlook on Rocket Lab USA, Inc., citing a significantly improved bull case driven by business diversification. The firm suggests the stock could experience a substantial surge of up to 250%. This optimistic projection is attributed to Rocket Lab adopting strategies similar to SpaceX, indicating a potential for accelerated growth and market expansion. Investors are watching closely as the company's strategic pivot aims to unlock new revenue streams and enhance its competitive position in the aerospace sector.

  • 6/29/2026POSITIVE
    Rocket Lab to Buy Iridium in Challenge to SpaceX

    Rocket Lab is set to acquire satellite communications firm Iridium Communications Inc. for $54 per share in a cash-and-stock deal, aiming to bolster its position in the orbital economy and challenge market leader SpaceX. The acquisition, valued at approximately $2.9 billion, will integrate Iridium's satellite constellation and services with Rocket Lab's launch capabilities. This strategic move is expected to enhance Rocket Lab's revenue streams and market competitiveness, potentially leading to increased investor interest and a re-evaluation of its growth prospects.

via Markets Gazette