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SAP SE (SAPGF)

適正価値
TechnologySoftware - ApplicationGermany

ファンダメンタル

64

株価

$186.74

時価総額

$212.58B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

SAP makes the software many large companies run their core operations on — accounting, supply chain, manufacturing and human resources — bundled into a system called ERP (enterprise resource planning). Once a company builds its finance and operations processes around SAP's system, that software becomes the record of how the business runs, which is why customers rarely switch providers. SAP is shifting its customers from software installed on their own servers to cloud subscriptions it hosts and updates itself.

収益の仕組み

Cloud subscriptions are billed recurring, usually annual, fees tied to usage or number of users, and now make up the majority of what SAP calls cloud and software revenue; older on-premise licenses are sold once and then generate smaller annual maintenance fees, a mix that is shrinking as customers migrate. Services revenue, a smaller and less profitable slice, comes from consultants helping customers implement and migrate these systems, typically billed by the project or by time.

セグメント別売上高

Cloud and Software88.4%

Cloud subscription revenue, now SAP's largest line, plus remaining on-premise software licenses and their maintenance fees.

Services11.6%

Consulting, implementation and training services that help customers deploy and migrate SAP software, billed separately from the software itself.

競争優位性(moat)

スイッチングコスト · 広い

SAP's software becomes deeply embedded in how a large company records its finances and runs its operations, with years of customization, staff training and connections to other internal systems built on top of it. Independent studies have found that switching ERP providers typically costs several times the original software price and takes over a year, which is why SAP keeps the large majority of its enterprise customers even when rivals offer comparable features.

需要を左右する要因

中程度の景気循環性

Recurring cloud subscriptions make revenue more predictable than a typical software license business, since customers rarely cancel core ERP systems even when budgets tighten. Still, corporate IT spending does slow in downturns, and the pace at which customers commit to new cloud migrations can stretch out when their own businesses are under pressure.

主なリスク

  • Intense competition in enterprise software — The company faces sustained competition from large rivals such as Oracle and Salesforce, who are also embedding AI features into cloud applications, which pressures pricing and can slow customer wins.
  • Cloud migration execution risk — Moving large customers from on-premise systems to the cloud involves remediating custom code, cleaning data and securing internal support within the customer's organization, and on-premise license revenue is declining meaningfully as this transition proceeds.
  • Data, antitrust and regulatory exposure — The company is subject to data-access and antitrust-related claims, including allegations of lock-in effects, as well as dependence on third-party cloud infrastructure and web services it does not fully control.

強気材料

Buyers see a company that has successfully shifted the majority of its revenue to recurring cloud subscriptions, still holds the deepest customer lock-in in enterprise software, and can raise prices on a captive base of hundreds of thousands of customers as it layers AI features onto the same ERP backbone.

弱気材料

Sellers worry that the on-premise license decline is eroding a historically high-margin revenue stream faster than cloud subscriptions can fully replace it, that cloud backlog growth is expected to moderate as the business scales, and that well-funded rivals embedding their own AI agents could chip away at renewal pricing over time.

2025会計年度のセグメントデータ情報源: SAP Announces Q4 and FY 2025 ResultsSAP SE — Annual Report on Form 20-F 2025

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$38.19B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$7.80B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$9.09B

自己資本合計

$44.74B

負債合計

$9.94B

流動比率

1.15

利払い倍率

-

負債/EBITDA

0.85

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

一般的なケース適正価値

適正価値

$156.84

現在株価

$186.74

安全マージン

-19.1%

適正価値レンジ

$113.36 - $200.33

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$209.81
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):$127.52
利益倍率(P/E):$154.18
グレアムの成長公式:$131.71
収益力価値(EPV):$66.07
正当化されたP/B:$79.14
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):$37.19
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
中間サイクル利益:算出に必要なデータが不足しています
売上高倍率:$168.76
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (30B / 7H / 2S)
直近の決算サプライズ:-11.11%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

27.57

ROE

18.3%

P/B レシオ

4.75

P/FCF

23.38

粗利益率

73.7%

ROIC

15.2%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

15.2%

WACC

10.1%

ROIC − WACC

+5.1 pp

ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(14)

  • Price CAGR 8.22%
  • ROIC 15.2%
  • Gross Margin 73.7%
  • P/FCF 23.38
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • ROE 17.6%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.1%
  • Analyst Consensus 77% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.26
  • Net Margin Trend 20.4% vs 9.1%

不合格(5)

  • P/B Ratio 4.75
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -0.8%
  • PEG Ratio 4.01
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

データなし(8)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-スコア

2/9

重大な財務上の懸念

score
criteria

利益の質

1.26

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

この企業について機関投資家の報告はありません。

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Christian KleinCEO & Member of Executive Board45
Mr. Lars LamadeHead of Global Sponsorships & Deputy Chairperson of the Supervisory Board54
Mr. Dominik AsamCFO & Member of Executive Board56
Mr. Thomas SaueressigMember of Executive Board40
Mr. Sebastian SteinhaeuserChief Strategy Officer & COO and Member of Executive Board39
Ms. Gina Vargiu-BreuerChief People Officer, Labor Director & Member of Executive Board49
Mr. Muhammad AlamLead Product Engineering & Member of Executive Board47
Mr. Andreas HahnChairperson of Works Council Europe & Works Council Europe Rep Member of Supervisory Board54
Jakub CernyDemand Manager & Works Council Europe Representative Member of Supervisory Board43
Mr. Pascal DematSolution Advisor HCM & Works Council Europe Representative Member of Supervisory Board58

監査リスク

10

取締役会リスク

2

報酬リスク

1

株主権利リスク

1

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

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