Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)
Valor JustoFundamental
68
Preço
$115.24
Capitalização de Mercado
$21.30B
Parte 1 · Quanto vale a empresa
Visão Geral
Dollar Tree runs roughly 9,000 discount variety stores in the United States and Canada where most items are sold at a fixed low price point, offering a mix of household goods, food, seasonal items and party supplies aimed at value-conscious, budget-focused shoppers looking for everyday essentials at the lowest possible price. In 2025 the company sold its separate Family Dollar chain, leaving standalone Dollar Tree stores as its entire operating business going forward.
Como gera receita
Revenue is simple retail: stores sell merchandise bought in bulk from suppliers, marked up to the store's price points, with growth coming from opening new stores, selling more per existing store and, in recent years, from adding price points above the original one-dollar level. Roughly 40% of what it sells is imported, with China as the largest single source, so the cost side depends heavily on global shipping and tariff conditions.
Vantagem competitiva
Vantagem de custo · EstreitaBuying in bulk across roughly 9,000 stores lets Dollar Tree negotiate lower per-unit costs from suppliers than a small independent retailer could, and its distribution network is built to keep costs low enough to sustain fixed, deeply discounted price points. That advantage is narrow because Walmart, other dollar-store chains and online marketplaces compete on price in the same low-cost segment.
O que impulsiona a procura
DefensivoDollar Tree sells low-priced everyday and household items that shoppers keep buying even when budgets tighten, and value-seeking behaviour in a downturn can bring in shoppers trading down from pricier retailers. Demand is not fully immune to the economy, since discretionary categories like seasonal and party goods can soften, but the core business holds up better than most discretionary retail.
Principais riscos
- Tariffs on imported merchandise — About 40% of goods sold are imported, mostly from China, and new or higher tariffs directly raise the cost of merchandise on fixed or narrow price points that are hard to raise quickly.
- Intense price competition — Walmart, other discount and dollar-store chains, and online marketplaces all compete directly on low prices, limiting how much Dollar Tree can raise prices to offset rising costs.
- Standalone execution after the Family Dollar sale — Having divested Family Dollar in 2025, the company now depends entirely on the Dollar Tree banner's performance, removing the diversification a second chain previously provided.
Os argumentos a favor
Buyers argue that value-seeking shoppers keep returning to fixed low price points regardless of the economic cycle, that bulk purchasing scale across thousands of stores keeps costs down relative to smaller competitors, and that shedding Family Dollar lets management focus fully on the more productive Dollar Tree banner.
Os argumentos contra
Sellers fear that tariffs on the roughly 40% of merchandise sourced abroad squeeze margins the company cannot easily pass on to price-sensitive shoppers, that competition from Walmart and other discounters caps pricing power, and that the business now depends entirely on a single banner with no other chain to offset a weak stretch.
Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 18 de setembro de 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
The closest same-format rival, with roughly 20,000 small-box discount stores selling consumables and household basics to the same value-seeking shopper, often within a few miles of a Dollar Tree.
Competes for the same low-price discretionary basket — seasonal goods, toys, party and home items — and with its Five Beyond range it moves into the higher price points Dollar Tree is adding with its multi-price format.
The price benchmark of American discount retail: its supercenters and Neighborhood Markets sit close to most Dollar Tree stores and capture the same trip for household staples and low-cost general merchandise.
The largest U.S. closeout retailer, it draws the same bargain-hunting customer with opportunistic overstock buys and is expanding aggressively into the small-town markets Dollar Tree serves.
Its own-brand value lines and seasonal, party and home aisles compete for the same discretionary spending, particularly with the suburban shoppers Dollar Tree reaches through its multi-price stores.
Sold by Dollar Tree in July 2025 to Brigade Capital and Macellum Capital, it is now an independent chain of roughly 8,000 discount stores chasing the same low-income neighborhood customer.
Balanço & Liquidez
Receita
$20.05B
Últimos 12 meses (até 01/08/2026)
Resultado Líquido
$1.61B
Últimos 12 meses (até 01/08/2026)
Fluxo de Caixa Livre
$1.06B
Capital Próprio Total
$3.75B
Passivo Total
$9.71B
Rácio de Liquidez
1.13
Cobertura de Juros
-
Dívida/EBITDA
3.33
Resultados Por Ação
Receita & Resultado Líquido
Fluxo de Caixa Livre
Decomposição dos Resultados
Demonstração histórica
Margens ao longo do tempo
A dívida ao longo do tempo
Quanto pesa a dívida
Grelha do crescimento
Crescimento — Receitas
Estimativa de Valor Justo
Valor Justo
$133.88
Preço Atual
$115.24
Margem de Segurança
+13.9%
Intervalo de Valor Justo
$110.10 - $157.67
Dispersão entre os métodos de avaliação utilizados, não um intervalo de confiança calibrado estatisticamente.
Métodos de Estimativa
Métricas de Avaliação
Rácio P/E
13.97
ROE
34.2%
Rácio P/B
6.25
P/FCF
10.82
Margem Bruta
38.7%
ROIC
16.2%
Radar de Rentabilidade
Criação de Valor (Vantagem Competitiva)
ROIC
16.2%
WACC
6.1%
ROIC − WACC
+10.1 pp
O ROIC supera o custo do capital — a empresa está a criar valor para os acionistas.
Critérios de Análise Fundamental
Aprovado (18)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 7.97%
- ROIC 16.2%
- Gross Margin 38.7%
- P/FCF 10.82
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 11.0%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 45.6%
- Earnings Surprise avg 37.6%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.93
- Share Dilution -4.5%
- Net Margin Trend 8.0% vs -15.8%
- Piotroski F-Score 9/9
Reprovado (8)
- Price CAGR 3.90%
- P/B Ratio 6.25
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Revenue Growth 5Y -5.3%
- Analyst Consensus 43% Buy
- PEG Ratio 7.01
Indisponível (2)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
Piotroski F-Score
Saúde financeira sólida
Qualidade dos Resultados
Alta qualidade: resultados respaldados por caixa
Diluição de Ações
A recomprar ações. Favorável ao acionista
Participações institucionais
Governação
Equipa Executiva
| Nome | Cargo | Idade |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Michael C. Creedon Jr. | CEO & Director | 49 |
| Mr. Stewart F. Glendinning J.D. | Chief Financial Officer | 60 |
| Mr. Robert Aflatooni | Chief Information Officer | 54 |
| Mr. Steve Schumacher | Chief People Officer | 53 |
| Mr. Aditya Maheshwari | Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 50 |
| Mr. Daniel Delrosario | Senior VP of Investor Relations & Treasurer | - |
| Mr. John S. Mitchell Jr., J.D. | Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 55 |
| Mr. Thoufiq Kutty J.D. | SVP and Chief Ethics & Compliance Officer | - |
| Mr. Pedro Voyer | Chief Development Officer | - |
| Ms. Jennifer L. Silberman | Chief Sustainability & Corporate Affairs Officer | - |
Risco de Auditoria
5
Risco do Conselho
3
Risco de Remuneração
7
Risco dos Direitos dos Acionistas
2
Parte 2 · O preço e o momento de entrar
Esta parte não serve para saber se a empresa vale: serve para escolher quando comprá-la, depois que os fundamentos te convenceram. Dentro: análise técnica, potencial, quedas históricas, exposição gama.
Documentos
- Ver documento
Relatório anual (10-K)
Uma visão anual do negócio, dos resultados financeiros e dos riscos da empresa.
Arquivado em 2026-03-16
- Ver documento
Relatório trimestral (10-Q)
Uma atualização sobre o desempenho financeiro dos últimos três meses.
Arquivado em 2026-08-27
- Ver documento
Relatório de fato relevante (8-K)
Um aviso sobre um fato relevante, como uma mudança na liderança ou um grande anúncio.
Arquivado em 2026-09-25
via SEC EDGAR
Histórico de Resultados
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for DLTR, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 5/28/2026POSITIVEDollar Tree’s sales top forecasts as fewer people are shopping — but they’re spending more
Dollar Tree Inc. reported strong first-quarter results, with sales exceeding analyst expectations. Despite a decrease in customer traffic, the average spending per shopper increased, leading to a 4.9% rise in total revenue to $7.07 billion, surpassing the $6.99 billion consensus. The company also raised its full-year profit outlook, projecting earnings per share between $7.75 and $8.00, up from the previous $7.65 to $7.95 range. This performance indicates effective pricing strategies and operational efficiency, potentially signaling a positive trend for the discount retail sector.
- 4/7/2026NEGATIVEWhy Are Dollar Tree Shares Trading Down On Tuesday?
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) shares experienced a decline on Tuesday, influenced by a broader market downturn. This sell-off was primarily attributed to a significant drop in durable goods orders, signaling potential weakness in manufacturing and consumer spending. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions, marked by strikes on Iran and a subsequent rise in oil prices, added to market uncertainty and investor caution. The combination of economic headwinds and rising commodity costs creates a challenging environment for retail companies like Dollar Tree, impacting consumer discretionary spending.
- 3/17/2026POSITIVEDollar Tree Q4 Beats Expectations, Analysts Split On Stock Outlook
Dollar Tree Inc. announced its fourth-quarter financial results, surpassing analyst expectations with improved gross margins and earnings per share. The company's performance indicates a strong operational quarter, potentially driven by effective cost management and increased consumer demand for its value-oriented offerings. Despite the positive financial outcome, analyst sentiment remains divided, with varying ratings suggesting uncertainty about the stock's future trajectory. Investors will closely monitor management's guidance for the upcoming fiscal year to gauge sustained growth potential.
- 3/16/2026NEUTRALDollar Tree Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Dollar Tree released its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call transcript on March 16, 2026. While the transcript provides detailed insights into the company's performance and outlook, the news itself is informational. Investors will need to analyze the transcript for specific financial figures, management commentary on sales trends, cost management, and future guidance to determine any potential impact on the stock. Without specific figures or forward-looking statements highlighted in the summary, the direct market impact remains neutral.
- 3/16/2026POSITIVEHigher prices help Dollar Tree grow sales faster than its top rival
Dollar Tree Inc. reported strong sales growth, outpacing its main competitor due to favorable pricing strategies. This performance comes despite a recent three-day losing streak for the stock, which saw an 8% decline. The company's ability to leverage higher prices to boost sales volume suggests resilience and effective inventory management. For investors, this indicates potential for a rebound and sustained market share gains, especially if broader economic conditions remain challenging for consumers.
- 2/27/2026NEUTRALDollar Tree opens stores in surprising locations
Dollar Tree Inc. is undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from its long-standing $1 price point per item. This strategic shift, coupled with the opening of stores in unexpected locations, indicates an adaptation to evolving market dynamics and inflationary pressures. For investors, this transition represents an effort to improve margins and brand relevance, but also raises questions about consumer value perception and the impact on customer loyalty, which was strongly tied to the unique price point. Success will hinge on the execution of this new strategy and the ability to maintain brand appeal.
via Markets Gazette