Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW)
Valor JustoFundamental
64
Preço
$41.69
Capitalização de Mercado
$6.10B
Parte 1 · Quanto vale a empresa
Visão Geral
Lamb Weston freezes potatoes into french fries and other potato products sold to restaurants, foodservice distributors and grocery stores around the world. It grows relationships with potato farmers under multi-year contracts, runs processing plants across North America, Europe, Argentina and Asia, and ships finished frozen products through a cold chain to customers who then fry or bake them for consumers. It is one of a handful of companies with the scale to supply large restaurant chains globally.
Como gera receita
Revenue comes from selling frozen potato products by the pound to restaurant chains, foodservice distributors and retailers, priced to cover the cost of raw potatoes, processing and freight, plus a margin. The single largest customer relationship is McDonald's, at roughly 15% of net sales, and the top ten customers together account for about half of revenue, so results move closely with how those large accounts are ordering. About a third of sales are outside North America.
Receita por segmento
Sales to restaurant chains, foodservice distributors and retailers across the United States, Canada and Mexico — about two-thirds of revenue.
All sales outside North America, spanning Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East, served from plants on several continents.
O que impulsiona a procura
Moderadamente cíclicoDemand tracks restaurant traffic and away-from-home eating more than the broader economy — soft restaurant traffic in Europe and an oversupply of potatoes weighed on results in fiscal 2026 even without a recession. Potato crop yields, which swing with weather each season, add a further layer of volatility on the supply side that is unrelated to economic cycles.
Principais riscos
- Input cost and tariff volatility — A large share of costs comes from commodities such as raw potatoes, edible oil and energy, and the company says new and retaliatory tariffs announced through 2025 and 2026 have added further volatility it may not be able to pass through in prices.
- Customer concentration and bargaining power — Large, sophisticated customers such as major restaurant chains and retailers can resist price increases and demand promotional support, and the loss of a significant customer like McDonald's would materially hurt results.
- Potato crop and weather risk — Extreme heat, excess rain or pests can cut potato yields and quality, while unusually favorable growing conditions can create an oversupply — as happened in fiscal 2026 in Europe — forcing the company to write off excess raw potatoes.
- Dependence on third parties in the supply chain — The company relies on co-packers, warehousing partners and transportation providers it does not control, and disruption at any of them — from labor issues to shipping bottlenecks — can cause manufacturing delays and lost revenue.
Concentração de clientes
Os principais clientes representam 50% da receita
The ten largest customers accounted for about 50% of net sales in fiscal 2026, and McDonald's alone represented approximately 15% — the only customer above the 10% disclosure threshold.
Os argumentos a favor
Buyers argue that Lamb Weston's global processing scale and entrenched position with the largest restaurant chains, led by a decades-long relationship with McDonald's, give it pricing power and a cost structure smaller rivals cannot easily replicate as global french fry demand keeps expanding.
Os argumentos contra
Sellers fear that dependence on a handful of giant customers cuts both ways — McDonald's alone is worth about 15% of sales — and that soft restaurant traffic, potato oversupply and new tariffs can all pressure margins at the same time, as they did in fiscal 2026.
Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 19 de setembro de 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Owner of the Ore-Ida brand, it competes with Lamb Weston's branded and private-label frozen potatoes for freezer space in American supermarkets.
The world's largest frozen potato processor and Lamb Weston's closest rival, selling french fries and potato specialties to the same quick-service restaurant chains, foodservice distributors and retailers in North America, Europe and Asia.
Privately held US potato processor and the third force in North American frozen fries, bidding for the same restaurant-chain and foodservice contracts as Lamb Weston.
Irving-family owned processor and the fourth-largest frozen potato supplier in North America, competing for the same foodservice and retail fry volumes, especially in Canada and the northern United States.
Dutch potato processor owned by the Royal Cosun cooperative, the main obstacle to Lamb Weston's European business and a competitor for the same foodservice customers on the continent.
Belgian family-owned maker of frozen potato products for private label and foodservice, competing with Lamb Weston's European plants on fries, wedges and specialty cuts.
Balanço & Liquidez
Receita
$6.61B
Últimos 12 meses (até 31/05/2026)
Resultado Líquido
$290M
Últimos 12 meses (até 31/05/2026)
Fluxo de Caixa Livre
$540M
Capital Próprio Total
$1.82B
Passivo Total
$5.56B
Rácio de Liquidez
1.42
Cobertura de Juros
-
Dívida/EBITDA
4.09
Resultados Por Ação
Receita & Resultado Líquido
Fluxo de Caixa Livre
Decomposição dos Resultados
Demonstração histórica
Margens ao longo do tempo
A dívida ao longo do tempo
Quanto pesa a dívida
Grelha do crescimento
Crescimento — Receitas
Estimativa de Valor Justo
Valor Justo
$48.73
Preço Atual
$41.69
Margem de Segurança
+14.5%
Intervalo de Valor Justo
$31.68 - $65.79
Dispersão entre os métodos de avaliação utilizados, não um intervalo de confiança calibrado estatisticamente.
Métodos de Estimativa
Métricas de Avaliação
Rácio P/E
20.04
ROE
15.9%
Rácio P/B
3.14
P/FCF
10.61
Margem Bruta
20.6%
ROIC
7.8%
Radar de Rentabilidade
Criação de Valor (Vantagem Competitiva)
ROIC
7.8%
WACC
4.8%
ROIC − WACC
+3.0 pp
O ROIC supera o custo do capital — a empresa está a criar valor para os acionistas.
Critérios de Análise Fundamental
Aprovado (15)
- EPS shows upward trend
- ROIC 7.8%
- P/FCF 10.61
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 8.9%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 16.1%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 12.5%
- Earnings Surprise avg 20.5%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 3.25
- Share Dilution -2.4%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Reprovado (10)
- EPS CAGR 1.17%
- Price CAGR 1.75%
- Gross Margin 20.6%
- P/B Ratio 3.14
- CapEx intensity
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Analyst Consensus 48% Buy
- Net Margin Trend 4.4% vs 5.5%
Indisponível (3)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Saúde financeira sólida
Qualidade dos Resultados
Alta qualidade: resultados respaldados por caixa
Diluição de Ações
A recomprar ações. Favorável ao acionista
Participações institucionais
Governação
Equipa Executiva
| Nome | Cargo | Idade |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Jan Eli B. Craps | Executive Chair | 48 |
| Mr. Michael Jared Smith | President, CEO & Director | 48 |
| Mr. James Derek Gray | Chief Financial Officer | 58 |
| Mr. Marc J.P.H. Schroeder | President of International | 54 |
| Ms. Sylvia J. Wilks | Chief Supply Chain Officer | 61 |
| Mr. Benjamin Heselton | Chief Information Officer | 53 |
| Ms. Debbie Hancock | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Eryk J. Spytek J.D. | General Counsel & Chief Compliance Officer | 57 |
| Mr. Steven J. Younes J.D. | Chief Human Resources Officer | 59 |
| Mr. Michael Christopher Crowley | President of North America | 52 |
Risco de Auditoria
1
Risco do Conselho
3
Risco de Remuneração
2
Risco dos Direitos dos Acionistas
1
Parte 2 · O preço e o momento de entrar
Esta parte não serve para saber se a empresa vale: serve para escolher quando comprá-la, depois que os fundamentos te convenceram. Dentro: análise técnica, potencial, quedas históricas, exposição gama.
Documentos
- Ver documento
Relatório anual (10-K)
Uma visão anual do negócio, dos resultados financeiros e dos riscos da empresa.
Arquivado em 2026-07-24
- Ver documento
Relatório trimestral (10-Q)
Uma atualização sobre o desempenho financeiro dos últimos três meses.
Arquivado em 2026-04-01
- Ver documento
Relatório de fato relevante (8-K)
Um aviso sobre um fato relevante, como uma mudança na liderança ou um grande anúncio.
Arquivado em 2026-09-16
via SEC EDGAR
Histórico de Resultados
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for LW, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 4/30/2026POSITIVEActivist Starboard Pushes for Lamb Weston to Hold Investor Day
Activist investor Starboard Value LP is reportedly pushing Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. to schedule an investor day. The goal is for the french-fry maker to articulate a clear strategy for earnings growth. This move by Starboard, known for its aggressive engagement tactics, suggests a belief that Lamb Weston's current valuation does not reflect its potential. Investors will be looking for concrete plans and financial targets that could unlock shareholder value, potentially leading to a re-rating of the stock if management can effectively present a compelling turnaround or growth narrative.
- 4/1/2026NEUTRALLamb Weston Earnings Are Imminent; These Most Accurate Analysts Revise Forecasts Ahead Of Earnings Call
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is scheduled to report its third-quarter earnings on April 1st. Analysts project earnings per share of $0.61, with a consensus revenue estimate of $1.49 billion. Recent analyst actions include Jefferies maintaining a Buy rating in October 2021, Stifel upgrading to Buy from Hold in May 2021, and Goldman Sachs downgrading to Neutral from Buy in April 2021. The upcoming earnings report will provide crucial insights into the company's performance and future outlook, influencing investor sentiment.
- 3/2/2026NEGATIVE$64 Million Exit: Lamb Weston Stock Down 9% As Investor Dumps 1 Million Shares
Lamb Weston, a leader in value-added frozen potato products, experienced a sharp 9% decline in its stock value. The downturn was triggered by an investor offloading 1 million shares, a transaction valued at $64 million. This significant divestment raises questions about investor confidence and potential future selling pressure. Market participants should assess whether this is an isolated strategic move or a signal of broader concerns that could impact the stock's performance in the near term. The event highlights the market's sensitivity to large share transactions.
via Markets Gazette