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NVR Inc (NVR)

Valor Justo
Consumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionUnited States

Fundamental

72

Preço

$6154.39

Capitalização de Mercado

$16.70B

Parte 1 · Quanto vale a empresa

Visão Geral

NVR, Inc. is a Virginia-based homebuilder that designs, builds and sells single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings under three brands — Ryan Homes (first-time and first move-up buyers), NVHomes and Heartland Homes (move-up and luxury buyers). In fiscal 2025 it operated in 37 metropolitan areas across 16 states and Washington, D.C., and settled 21,915 homes. Almost everything it builds is constructed on a pre-sold basis: NVR signs a contract with a named buyer before it starts the house, which is why the order backlog (8,448 units, roughly $4.0 billion at 31 December 2025) is the company's forward book of business. Alongside the four homebuilding segments it runs NVR Mortgage Finance, which originates mortgages and provides title services exclusively to its own homebuyers. What most distinguishes NVR from other large builders is that it does not, as a rule, own or develop land: it buys finished lots from third-party developers under fixed-price lot purchase agreements backed by forfeitable deposits, controlling 180,100 lots at year end while keeping the land itself off its balance sheet.

Como gera receita

Nearly all revenue is the sale price of a finished home, recognised when the house is settled — transferred to the buyer at closing. The pipeline runs: a buyer signs a purchase contract, the home enters backlog, NVR builds it (usually within a few months) and books the revenue at settlement, so reported revenue is essentially last year's and last quarter's orders converting. Lots come from fixed-price lot purchase agreements with deposits of up to 10% of the purchase price, which NVR forfeits if it walks away; this converts the land bet into an option premium rather than an owned asset. The mortgage banking and title segment earns origination fees, gains on the sale of loans and title fees; it closed about 16,400 loans for $6.0 billion of principal in 2025 and sells essentially all of them into the secondary market on a servicing-released basis, typically within 30 days of closing, so it earns a one-off spread rather than a recurring servicing stream. The company has never paid a cash dividend and returns cash entirely through share repurchases.

Receita por segmento

Mid Atlantic homebuilding42.3%

Homes sold in Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware and Washington, D.C. — NVR's home region and its largest market, selling across the full range from Ryan Homes entry-level product to NVHomes luxury.

South East homebuilding25.6%

Homes sold in North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, Georgia and Kentucky — the fast-growing Sun Belt markets and the segment whose revenue fell most in 2025.

Mid East homebuilding18.2%

Homes sold in New York, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Indiana and Illinois, mostly mid-priced product for first-time and move-up buyers.

North East homebuilding11.6%

Homes sold in New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania — the smallest homebuilding segment, and the only one whose revenue grew in 2025.

Mortgage banking and title services2.2%

NVR Mortgage Finance originates mortgages and provides title and settlement services to people buying an NVR home, then sells the loans into the secondary market. It lends only to the group's own homebuyers.

Vantagem competitiva

Vantagem de custo · Estreita

NVR's advantage is structural rather than brand-based. By buying finished lots under option-style purchase agreements instead of owning and developing land, it ties up far less capital per home and can turn inventory faster than builders that carry years of land on the balance sheet; management states in the filing that the approach is meant to avoid the financial requirements and risks of direct land ownership and to let the company operate with less capital. Building only against signed contracts compounds this: NVR rarely carries finished speculative homes it has to discount. The limits are real, though. The model does not stop competitors from copying it, and a homebuyer choosing between a Ryan Home and a rival's house a mile away faces no switching cost and little brand loyalty; NVR also depends on third-party developers to deliver lots, and in a market where developers are scarce that dependence can cut the other way. It is a durable operating advantage in capital efficiency, not a barrier that keeps competitors out of its markets.

O que impulsiona a procura

Cíclico

Buying a house is the most postponable large purchase a household makes, and it is almost always financed, so demand swings with mortgage rates, employment and consumer confidence rather than with any need that recurs each year. The filing's own risk factors put economic conditions, interest rates and mortgage availability at the top of the list, and 2025 showed the mechanism at work: new orders fell 10% to 20,410 units and backlog fell 15% to 8,448 units while the company kept building out the previous year's book. Longer-term demand rests on household formation and on the shortage of existing homes for sale, but those move slowly; what moves the year is the monthly payment. Cancellations are the visible pressure gauge — roughly 17% of gross sales cancelled in 2025.

Principais riscos

  • An economic downturn would hit both the homes and the mortgages — The filing lists a decline in national or regional economic conditions as its first risk. Housing demand tracks employment and consumer confidence closely, and because NVR also originates the mortgages on its own homes, a downturn hits the same customer twice.
  • Interest rates, inflation and mortgage availability — The company discloses risks from interest rate movements and inflation, and separately from limited availability of suitable mortgage financing. Higher rates raise the monthly payment a buyer must qualify for, which can price buyers out of the backlog before settlement.
  • Inventory and controlled lots can lose value — The filing discloses the risk that the market value of inventory or of the controlled lot position declines. At the end of 2025 NVR carried an impairment allowance of $111 million against roughly 18,200 lots where it judged recovery impaired — the deposit mechanism limits the loss but does not eliminate it.
  • Not enough lots, materials or labour — Item 1A discloses the risk of failing to secure adequate lot inventory and of shortages of building materials or labour. Because NVR does not develop its own land, it depends on third-party developers to deliver finished lots on schedule.
  • Construction quality, warranty and product liability claims — The company discloses the risk that subcontractors fail to build to its standards, and separate risks of product liability litigation and warranty claims. NVR builds through subcontractors, so defects surface as claims it must honour years later.
  • Loans sold may come back — The filing discloses risks from deficiencies in mortgage underwriting quality and from claims on mortgage loans sold to third parties: if loans default and investors determine they were not underwritten to their requirements, NVR can be required to repurchase them or indemnify the buyer. It also discloses the risk that secondary-market disruption prevents it selling loans at all.
  • Regulation of building and of mortgage lending — The filing discloses risks from government regulation and environmental matters affecting where and how it can build, and separately from increasing regulation of the mortgage industry.
  • Cybersecurity, key people and access to capital — Item 1A also discloses cybersecurity incidents and data breaches, the loss of key personnel, volatility in credit and capital markets, and the effects of the company's current indebtedness. Weather and other uncontrollable events, health epidemics and reputational damage to its brands are listed as well.

Concentração de clientes

NVR sells to individual families, one house at a time, across 37 metropolitan areas, and the filing discloses no concentration in a small number of customers — there is none to disclose. The concentration that does exist is internal and is stated plainly: the mortgage banking segment originates loans only for people buying NVR homes, so all of its business depends on the homebuilding segment. Geographically, the Mid Atlantic region alone accounted for 42.3% of consolidated revenue in fiscal 2025, which is a concentration of a different kind — in one housing market rather than in one buyer.

Os argumentos a favor

Buyers argue that the lot-option model is the point. Because NVR does not own or develop land — it controlled 180,100 lots at the end of 2025 while putting up deposits rather than buying acreage — it needs far less capital per home than rivals and can walk away from a bad market at the cost of a forfeited deposit instead of a written-down land bank. Building only against signed contracts means it rarely sits on unsold finished homes. That combination, they argue, is what lets the company generate high returns on equity through a cycle and funnel the cash into buybacks rather than land: it has never paid a dividend and repurchased shares under successive $750 million authorisations through 2025 and again in February 2026, shrinking the share count year after year. They also point to the structural case for new homes — household formation and a thin supply of existing houses for sale — and to a backlog of roughly $4.0 billion that converts to revenue over the following year.

Os argumentos contra

Sellers fear that the cycle is turning against the company and the numbers already show it. In fiscal 2025 new orders fell 10% to 20,410 units, settlements fell 4% to 21,915, backlog fell 15% in units and to roughly $4.0 billion in value, and homebuilding revenue slipped to $10.09 billion from $10.29 billion — with backlog down, 2026 revenue starts from a smaller base. They note that the asset-light model does not make NVR immune: it recorded a $111 million impairment allowance against about 18,200 lots at year end, and depends on third-party developers it does not control to deliver finished lots on time. They argue the model is also replicable — rivals have been shifting toward optioned lots — and that NVR sells a commodity product into local markets where a buyer comparing two houses faces no switching cost, so pricing is set by mortgage rates and by what the builder down the road is offering. The mortgage arm compounds rather than diversifies the exposure, since it lends only to NVR's own buyers, and it carries repurchase obligations on loans already sold if underwriting is found wanting.

Generated on 19 de setembro de 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 19 de setembro de 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 11.9Score: 83Market cap: $22.33B

With its Centex, Pulte and Del Webb brands it spans first-time to luxury buyers and is a leading builder in Washington, D.C., Baltimore and the wider Mid-Atlantic, NVR's core revenue base.

P/E: 12.8Score: 58Market cap: —

The second-largest US homebuilder competes for the same new-home buyers and the same land positions in most of the metro areas where NVR operates, and likewise bundles mortgage and title services with the sale.

P/E: 10.8Score: 79Market cap: $12.58B

The main rival to NVR's NVHomes and Heartland Homes brands, building move-up and luxury homes in the same Washington–Baltimore–Philadelphia corridor.

D.R. Horton, Inc.DHI

The largest US homebuilder by closings, it sells entry-level and first move-up single-family homes to the same buyers NVR's Ryan Homes brand targets, in overlapping eastern and southeastern metro markets.

M/I Homes, Inc.MHO

A mid-sized builder whose markets sit almost entirely inside NVR's footprint — Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Charlotte, Raleigh and Washington, D.C. — with a comparable first-time and move-up product mix.

Taylor Morrison Home CorporationTMHC

A national builder competing for the same move-up and active-adult buyers across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, including the Carolinas and Florida markets NVR has been expanding into.

Balanço & Liquidez

Receita

$9.53B

Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)

Resultado Líquido

$1.14B

Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

$1.10B

Capital Próprio Total

$3.86B

Passivo Total

$1.99B

Rácio de Liquidez

3.51

Cobertura de Juros

-

Dívida/EBITDA

0.71

Resultados Por Ação

Receita & Resultado Líquido

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

Decomposição dos Resultados

Demonstração histórica

Margens ao longo do tempo

A dívida ao longo do tempo

Quanto pesa a dívida

Grelha do crescimento

Crescimento — Receitas

Estimativa de Valor Justo

CíclicaJustamente Valorizada

Valor Justo

$5957.39

Preço Atual

$6154.39

Margem de Segurança

-3.3%

Intervalo de Valor Justo

$4889.35 - $7025.42

Dispersão entre os métodos de avaliação utilizados, não um intervalo de confiança calibrado estatisticamente.

Métodos de Estimativa

Preço-alvo dos analistas:$6717.80
Fluxo de caixa descontado (DCF):Não aplicável a este tipo de empresa
Multiplicador de lucros (P/E):$6696.94
Fórmula de crescimento de Graham:Não aplicável a este tipo de empresa
Valor da capacidade de gerar lucro (EPV):$4446.99
P/B justificado:Não aplicável a este tipo de empresa
Desconto de dividendos (Gordon):Não aplicável a este tipo de empresa
P/FFO, fundos de operações:Não aplicável a este tipo de empresa
Lucros de meio de ciclo:Dados insuficientes para o calcular
Multiplicador sobre as receitas:Não aplicável a este tipo de empresa
Consenso dos Analistas:Manter (2B / 5H / 7S)
Última Surpresa de Resultados:-7.61%

Métricas de Avaliação

Rácio P/E

15.99

ROE

34.7%

Rácio P/B

4.84

P/FCF

15.67

Margem Bruta

-

ROIC

-

Radar de Rentabilidade

Criação de Valor (Vantagem Competitiva)

ROIC

-

WACC

8.9%

ROIC − WACC

-

Critérios de Análise Fundamental

Aprovado (16)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 21.02%
  • Price CAGR 13.95%
  • P/FCF 15.67
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 31.0%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.7%
  • PEG Ratio 1.04
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.93
  • Share Dilution -7.5%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

Reprovado (6)

  • P/B Ratio 4.84
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Analyst Consensus 14% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg -1.1%
  • Net Margin Trend 12.0% vs 14.4%

Indisponível (6)

  • ROIC NaN%
  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-Score

5/9

Sinais mistos: algumas áreas requerem atenção

score
criteria

Qualidade dos Resultados

0.93

Moderada: alguma diferença entre lucros e caixa

Diluição de Ações

-7.5%

A recomprar ações. Favorável ao acionista

Participações institucionais

Governação

Equipa Executiva

NomeCargoIdade
Mr. Paul C. SavilleExecutive Chairman of the Board69
Mr. Eugene James BredowPresident & CEO55
Mr. Daniel David MalzahnSenior VP, CFO & Treasurer55
Mr. Matthew B. Kelpy CPAVP, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller52
Mr. James M. SackGeneral Counsel & Secretary-

Risco de Auditoria

10

Risco do Conselho

8

Risco de Remuneração

7

Risco dos Direitos dos Acionistas

6

Parte 2 · O preço e o momento de entrar

Esta parte não serve para saber se a empresa vale: serve para escolher quando comprá-la, depois que os fundamentos te convenceram. Dentro: análise técnica, potencial, quedas históricas, exposição gama.

Documentos

  • Relatório anual (10-K)

    Uma visão anual do negócio, dos resultados financeiros e dos riscos da empresa.

    Arquivado em 2026-02-11

    Ver documento
  • Relatório trimestral (10-Q)

    Uma atualização sobre o desempenho financeiro dos últimos três meses.

    Arquivado em 2026-08-05

    Ver documento
  • Relatório de fato relevante (8-K)

    Um aviso sobre um fato relevante, como uma mudança na liderança ou um grande anúncio.

    Arquivado em 2026-07-23

    Ver documento

via SEC EDGAR

Histórico de Resultados

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for NVR, sourced from Markets Gazette.

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