Voltar à classificação

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

Valor Justo
IndustrialsTruckingUnited States

Fundamental

70

Preço

$175.79

Capitalização de Mercado

$36.27B

Parte 1 · Quanto vale a empresa

Visão Geral

Old Dominion Freight Line moves freight that is too small to fill a full truck — a few pallets or boxes rather than an entire trailer — picking up shipments from many customers, sorting them at regional service centers, and combining them onto trucks headed the same direction. It operates this less-than-truckload, or LTL, network itself across the United States with its own drivers, terminals and trucks rather than through franchisees or outside carriers, and adds services like expedited and guaranteed delivery.

Como gera receita

Revenue is charged per shipment, based mainly on weight and distance, so it rises and falls with how much freight moves through the economy rather than with any subscription or long-term contract base. Because the network's fixed costs — terminals, trucks and staff — barely change with volume, profitability depends heavily on keeping trucks and terminals full: a small change in shipment density can swing operating margins by a large amount in either direction.

Vantagem competitiva

Vantagem de custo · Estreita

Decades of investment in a dense, non-union terminal network let Old Dominion run at some of the lowest costs and highest on-time delivery rates in the LTL industry, a combination that is hard for a new or smaller carrier to match quickly. That efficiency shows up in an industry-leading operating ratio, but the LTL market remains competitive on price, so the edge is durable rather than unassailable.

O que impulsiona a procura

Cíclico

LTL shipment volumes track industrial production, retail restocking and manufacturing activity closely, so freight demand slows sharply when the broader economy weakens — 2025 revenue fell as shipment volumes declined during a soft freight market. Pricing tends to be more resilient than volume, since carriers are reluctant to cut rates even when demand softens.

Principais riscos

  • Freight cycle and industrial activity — Shipment volumes fall when industrial production, retail restocking and manufacturing activity slow, as happened in 2025; revenue and profitability move directly with the broader freight cycle.
  • Fixed cost operating leverage — Terminals, trucks and drivers are largely fixed costs regardless of volume, so a drop in shipments cannot easily be matched by cost cuts, and operating margins compress quickly in a downturn.
  • Driver and labor availability — The business depends on recruiting and retaining enough qualified drivers and dock workers; a shortage or higher wage costs would raise expenses or limit how much freight the network can move.
  • Fuel price volatility — Diesel is a major operating cost; while fuel surcharges pass much of the cost through to customers, sharp price swings can still create timing mismatches that pressure margins.

Concentração de clientes

Os principais clientes representam 16% da receita

The customer base is highly diversified: the single largest customer represented about 4% of 2025 revenue, and the top 10 customers combined represented about 16%.

Os argumentos a favor

Buyers argue that Old Dominion's dense, non-union network gives it a durable cost and service advantage over LTL rivals, reflected in an industry-leading operating ratio, and that a highly diversified customer base with no meaningful concentration limits the damage any single account can do.

Os argumentos contra

Sellers fear that the business is fundamentally tied to the industrial and freight cycle, that 2025's volume decline shows how quickly a soft economy erodes results, and that heavy fixed costs in terminals and trucks turn even a modest downturn in shipments into a larger hit to margins.

Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 19 de setembro de 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 32.2Score: 68Market cap: $8.90B

A national LTL carrier expanding its terminal network across the United States, competing directly with Old Dominion for the same door-to-door freight on service quality and transit times.

P/E: 52.1Score: 64Market cap: $20.68B

Operates one of the largest North American LTL networks, chasing the same pallet-level freight and the same contract shippers as Old Dominion.

FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.FDXF

The largest less-than-truckload carrier in North America by revenue, it bids for the same national and inter-regional LTL shipments from industrial and retail shippers that Old Dominion serves.

Estes Express Lines, Inc.Not tracked

The largest privately held US LTL carrier, with a nationwide terminal footprint that overlaps almost entirely with Old Dominion's on the same lanes.

ArcBest CorporationARCB

Through ABF Freight it runs a national unionized LTL network selling the same regional and long-haul freight service to industrial customers.

TFI International Inc.TFII

Its TForce Freight unit is a top-ten US LTL carrier, competing for the same cross-border and domestic LTL volumes between the United States and Canada.

Balanço & Liquidez

Receita

$5.60B

Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)

Resultado Líquido

$1.09B

Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

$955M

Capital Próprio Total

$4.31B

Passivo Total

$1.16B

Rácio de Liquidez

1.89

Cobertura de Juros

-

Dívida/EBITDA

0.01

Resultados Por Ação

Receita & Resultado Líquido

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

Decomposição dos Resultados

Demonstração histórica

Margens ao longo do tempo

A dívida ao longo do tempo

Quanto pesa a dívida

Grelha do crescimento

Crescimento — Receitas

Estimativa de Valor Justo

Caso geralJustamente Valorizada

Valor Justo

$150.97

Preço Atual

$175.79

Margem de Segurança

-16.4%

Intervalo de Valor Justo

$98.13 - $203.81

Dispersão entre os métodos de avaliação utilizados, não um intervalo de confiança calibrado estatisticamente.

Métodos de Estimativa

Preço-alvo dos analistas:$228.78
Fluxo de caixa descontado (DCF):$91.09
Multiplicador de lucros (P/E):$143.54
Fórmula de crescimento de Graham:$141.86
Valor da capacidade de gerar lucro (EPV):$50.74
P/B justificado:$63.45
Desconto de dividendos (Gordon):$17.10
P/FFO, fundos de operações:$107.13
Lucros de meio de ciclo:$99.50
Multiplicador sobre as receitas:$76.34
Consenso dos Analistas:Comprar (14B / 15H / 2S)
Última Surpresa de Resultados:+9.03%

Métricas de Avaliação

Rácio P/E

33.43

ROE

23.7%

Rácio P/B

7.93

P/FCF

32.34

Margem Bruta

-

ROIC

22.0%

Radar de Rentabilidade

Criação de Valor (Vantagem Competitiva)

ROIC

22.0%

WACC

10.8%

ROIC − WACC

+11.2 pp

O ROIC supera o custo do capital — a empresa está a criar valor para os acionistas.

Critérios de Análise Fundamental

Aprovado (18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 8.39%
  • Price CAGR 20.05%
  • ROIC 22.0%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 25.8%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 24.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.5%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 4.9%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.28
  • Share Dilution -2.3%
  • Net Margin Trend 19.4% vs 19.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Reprovado (7)

  • P/FCF 32.34
  • P/B Ratio 7.93
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Analyst Consensus 45% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 2.99

Indisponível (3)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Sinais mistos: algumas áreas requerem atenção

score
criteria

Qualidade dos Resultados

1.28

Alta qualidade: resultados respaldados por caixa

Diluição de Ações

-2.3%

A recomprar ações. Favorável ao acionista

Participações institucionais

Governação

Equipa Executiva

NomeCargoIdade
Mr. David S. CongdonExecutive Chairman of the Board68
Mr. Kevin M. FreemanPresident, CEO & Director66
Mr. Adam N. Satterfield CPAExecutive VP, Assistant Secretary & CFO50
Mr. Gregory B. PlemmonsExecutive VP & COO59
Mr. Ross H. ParrSenior VP of Legal Affairs, General Counsel & Secretary53
Mr. Cecil E. Overbey Jr.Senior Vice President of Strategic Development63
Mr. Earl E. CongdonChairman Emeritus & Senior Advisor94
Mr. Clayton G. BrinkerVP of Accounting & Finance and Principal Accounting Officer39
Mr. Jack Lawrence AtkinsDirector of Investor Relations-
Sam FaucetteVice President of Safety & Compliance-

Risco de Auditoria

5

Risco do Conselho

9

Risco de Remuneração

2

Risco dos Direitos dos Acionistas

9

Parte 2 · O preço e o momento de entrar

Esta parte não serve para saber se a empresa vale: serve para escolher quando comprá-la, depois que os fundamentos te convenceram. Dentro: análise técnica, potencial, quedas históricas, exposição gama.

Documentos

  • Relatório anual (10-K)

    Uma visão anual do negócio, dos resultados financeiros e dos riscos da empresa.

    Arquivado em 2026-02-24

    Ver documento
  • Relatório trimestral (10-Q)

    Uma atualização sobre o desempenho financeiro dos últimos três meses.

    Arquivado em 2026-08-05

    Ver documento
  • Relatório de fato relevante (8-K)

    Um aviso sobre um fato relevante, como uma mudança na liderança ou um grande anúncio.

    Arquivado em 2026-09-22

    Ver documento

via SEC EDGAR

Histórico de Resultados

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for ODFL, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3d agoNEUTRAL
    Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index: Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)

    Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index features Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), a prominent less-than-truckload carrier. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth per hundredweight annually since fiscal year 2020. Furthermore, ODFL has strategically expanded its network capacity, positioning itself to accommodate future increases in freight volume. This analysis highlights ODFL's operational strength and potential for continued expansion within the freight industry, making it a notable component of the Nasdaq-100® index.

  • 6/20/2026NEGATIVE
    Here's Why Old Dominion Freight Line Stock Slumped This Week

    Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) stock experienced a significant downturn this week, despite a general recovery observed in the broader freight market. The market's anticipation of this recovery appears to have already been factored into sector stock valuations, leaving little room for further upside. Investors are likely reassessing the stock's premium in light of this 'priced-in' recovery, leading to the price slump. This suggests that while the industry fundamentals are improving, ODFL may have been overvalued based on future expectations.

via Markets Gazette