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Adobe Inc. (ADBE)

合理估值
TechnologySoftware - ApplicationUnited States

基本面

76

价格

$240.21

市值

$94.97B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Adobe makes the software that creative professionals, marketers and everyday users rely on to create, edit and manage digital content: Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro and Acrobat are used by designers, video editors and anyone who opens a PDF. A second, smaller business sells software that helps large companies run marketing campaigns and personalize websites. Nearly all of this reaches customers as a paid, ongoing subscription rather than a one-time software purchase.

盈利方式

Adobe charges recurring subscription fees for access to its creative and document tools, billed monthly or annually, so revenue builds up as the installed base of paying subscribers grows rather than depending on new-version sales. Its enterprise marketing software is sold through longer, higher-value contracts with large companies. Because the software is built once and resold to millions of users, additional subscribers cost little to serve, so the business carries high margins.

分部营收

Digital Media74.3%

Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro, Acrobat and the Creative Cloud and Document Cloud subscriptions built around them — Adobe's core business.

Digital Experience24.7%

Software that helps large companies manage marketing campaigns, personalize websites and analyze customer data, sold on multi-year enterprise contracts.

Publishing and Advertising1.1%

A small, shrinking mix of legacy publishing tools and remaining advertising services outside Adobe's two main businesses.

护城河

转换成本 · 宽阔

Creative professionals train for years on Photoshop and Premiere Pro, build workflows and file libraries around Adobe's formats, and work alongside colleagues who use the same tools. Switching an entire creative team, or an enterprise marketing stack, to a rival product means retraining people and rebuilding integrations most customers would rather avoid.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Subscription renewals make revenue fairly steady from quarter to quarter, but new subscriber growth follows the health of the creative, marketing and small-business economy, and enterprise contract renewals depend on corporate technology budgets that get squeezed in a downturn.

主要风险

  • Generative AI disruption — Rapid advances in generative AI let competitors and even free tools generate images, video and text that used to require Adobe's software, reducing the paid seats needed for the same creative work.
  • Faster-moving competitors — Faster-moving competitors built around AI and browser-based collaboration are winning share in design and video, particularly among smaller customers and price-sensitive segments.
  • Subscription churn — Adobe's business depends on customers renewing subscriptions rather than buying software once; price increases or a weaker economy can push customers to cancel or downgrade.
  • Cybersecurity and data breaches — A breach involving customer content, creative files or payment data stored in Adobe's cloud services could damage trust in a business built on recurring access.

客户集中度

Adobe states that no single customer accounted for 10% or more of revenue in any recent year; its subscriber base is broad enough that no one customer's decisions materially move results.

看多理由

Buyers argue that decades of entrenched workflows around Photoshop, Premiere and Acrobat, now paired with Adobe's own generative AI tools built into the same subscriptions, make switching costly enough that the company can keep raising prices and adding AI features without losing its base.

看空理由

Sellers fear that free or cheaper AI tools increasingly replace tasks that used to require a paid Adobe seat, that nimbler competitors are winning the youngest and most price-sensitive customers, and that a subscription business can lose ground quietly through cancellations before it shows up in growth numbers.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年8月23日 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 28.6Score: 72Market cap: $3.70T

Named by Adobe among its Digital Media competitors, Microsoft bundles document, design and video tools (Microsoft 365 with PDF editing, Designer, Clipchamp) into subscriptions bought by the same business professionals and consumers who buy Acrobat and Adobe Express.

P/E: 20.9Score: 73Market cap: $187.04B

Listed by Adobe as a Digital Experience competitor, Salesforce sells Marketing Cloud, Data Cloud and Commerce Cloud to the same enterprise marketing departments that Adobe Experience Cloud, Marketo Engage and Adobe Commerce are sold to.

P/E: 40.9Score: 73Market cap: $12.89B

DocuSign's e-signature and agreement-workflow subscriptions compete head-on with Adobe Acrobat Sign for the document business that generates Adobe's Acrobat revenue.

Canva Pty LtdNot tracked

Canva's browser-based design platform targets the same everyday creators, marketers and small businesses that Adobe serves with Express and the lighter end of Creative Cloud, and its template-driven approach competes for the same subscription spend.

Figma, Inc.FIG

Figma sells collaborative interface- and product-design tools to the same professional design teams Adobe courts with Photoshop, Illustrator and its discontinued XD, a rivalry Adobe itself acknowledged with an attempted $20 billion acquisition.

Corel Corporation (Alludo)Not tracked

Named by Adobe in its own competition disclosure, Corel offers CorelDRAW, Painter and Pinnacle Studio as lower-priced, often perpetual-licence alternatives to Illustrator, Photoshop and Premiere Pro for illustrators, photographers and video editors.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$25.97B

最近12个月(截至2026/8/28)

净利润

$7.28B

最近12个月(截至2026/8/28)

自由现金流

$9.85B

股东权益合计

$11.62B

负债合计

$17.87B

流动比率

0.77

利息覆盖率

35.66

债务/EBITDA

0.71

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$273.66

当前价格

$240.21

安全边际

+12.2%

公允价值区间

$178.89 - $368.44

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$278.15
现金流折现法(DCF):$376.29
市盈率法(P/E):$157.45
格雷厄姆成长公式:$417.98
盈利能力价值(EPV):$152.12
合理市净率(P/B):$173.96
股息折现模型(戈登模型):数据不足,无法计算
P/FFO(运营资金):$326.74
周期中段收益:$469.16
市销率法(P/S):$335.58
分析师共识:持有 (18B / 23H / 5S)
最近财报超预期:-1.26%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

13.40

ROE

61.3%

市净率(P/B)

7.94

P/FCF

8.82

毛利率

89.3%

ROIC

40.5%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

40.5%

WACC

11.6%

ROIC − WACC

+28.9 pp

ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(20)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 15.70%
  • Price CAGR 8.86%
  • ROIC 40.5%
  • Gross Margin 89.3%
  • P/FCF 8.82
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 35.7%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 62.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 13.1%
  • PEG Ratio 1.43
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.48
  • Share Dilution -5.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

未通过(7)

  • P/B Ratio 7.94
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Analyst Consensus 39% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 0.1%
  • Net Margin Trend 28.0% vs 30.0%

不可用(1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-评分

7/9

财务状况强健

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.48

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-5.1%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Shantanu NarayenChairman & CEO61
Ms. Adele Louise PentlandEVP of Legal & Government Relations, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary53
Mr. David WadhwaniPresident of Creativity & Productivity Business53
Dr. Anil S. ChakravarthyPresident of Customer Experience Orchestration Business57
Mr. Steven DayInterim CFO and Senior VP of Finance, Technology, Security & Operations57
Ms. Jillian ForuszSenior VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Corporate Controller50
Mr. Douglas G. Clark C.F.A.Vice President of Investor Relations-
Ms. Lara H. BalazsChief Marketing Officer & Executive Vice President of Global Marketing55
Ms. Gloria ChenChief People Officer & Executive VP of Employee Experience60
Mr. Shanmugh NatarajanMD of India & VP of Products-

审计风险

1

董事会风险

6

薪酬风险

10

股东权利风险

1

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-01-15

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-09-22

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-09-10

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for ADBE, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 20d agoNEGATIVE
    Analista: il calo post-utili di Adobe non è solo per i timori sull'IA

    Adobe shares experienced a significant decline, opening down on September 11th, a move senior analyst Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson deems justified despite his 'Buy' rating and $250 price target. While acknowledging concerns about AI disruption impacting Adobe's software business in 2026, Luria points out that AI fears are not the sole driver of the stock's underperformance. The stock is already down over 25% year-to-date. Investors are also grappling with recent executive leadership changes, which are further weighing on the stock's valuation and investor sentiment.

  • 21d agoNEGATIVE
    Adobe’s latest earnings leave Wall Street wanting more

    Adobe reported earnings that failed to meet Wall Street's elevated expectations, prompting an analyst to comment that simply meeting forecasts is insufficient in the current market climate. While specific figures were not detailed in the provided snippet, the sentiment suggests a performance shortfall relative to consensus estimates. This outcome could signal underlying challenges in Adobe's business operations or market positioning, potentially leading to a reassessment of its growth prospects by investors and a downward pressure on its stock price.

  • 22d agoNEUTRAL
    Le azioni Adobe sono calate dopo 15 degli ultimi 20 utili: l'AI può cambiarlo?

    Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) is set to report its third-quarter fiscal results, with analysts projecting revenues around $6.69 billion and adjusted earnings per share of approximately $6.08. Despite consistently beating Wall Street's expectations, Adobe's stock has a history of declining post-earnings, having fallen after 15 of the last 20 reports. The stock closed at $254.86 on Wednesday, down approximately 27% year-to-date. While Adobe continues to meet earnings targets, investor sentiment appears to hinge on future growth drivers, potentially related to AI integration, to reverse the negative trend.

  • 23d agoPOSITIVE
    These software stocks are in a prime spot to benefit from a rapidly shifting AI landscape

    Adobe Inc. has been identified as a top software company poised to capitalize on the evolving AI landscape, particularly due to its strong cash generation capabilities. This positions Adobe favorably against sector peers like Microsoft and Oracle, which were noted for lower cash generation in the same analysis. The company's robust financial health, underscored by its cash generation metrics, suggests a strong foundation for continued investment in AI research and development, potentially leading to innovative product offerings and sustained market leadership. Investors may view this as a positive indicator of future growth and profitability.

  • 27d agoNEGATIVE
    Azioni Adobe -7% dopo la nomina del nuovo CEO e il rimpasto ai vertici

    Adobe Inc. shares plummeted nearly 7% following the announcement of a significant leadership transition. Anil Chakravarthy is set to assume the roles of President and CEO on December 1, 2026, succeeding Shantanu Narayen, who will move to Executive Chairman. While Narayen expressed confidence in Chakravarthy's expertise and the company's future growth prospects, the market reacted negatively to the news. This leadership change occurs amidst intensified competition and evolving AI integration challenges within the software sector, raising investor concerns about the company's strategic direction and ability to navigate these pressures.

  • 28d agoNEGATIVE
    Adobe just announced its next CEO. Here’s why its stock is dropping.

    Adobe Inc. is experiencing a stock decline following the announcement of its new CEO, Anil Chakravarthy. While Chakravarthy is a company veteran, the simultaneous departure of another long-standing business head suggests potential for broader leadership changes within the organization. This uncertainty surrounding executive transitions, coupled with the departure of key personnel, has created investor apprehension, leading to a negative market reaction. Investors will be closely monitoring the strategic direction under new leadership and the impact on Adobe's future growth prospects.

  • 8/28/2026POSITIVE
    Analisi Adobe: si forma un golden cross in avvicinamento agli utili

    Adobe Inc. shares have experienced a significant rally, climbing 52% from their yearly low and reaching their highest point since February. This upward momentum is further supported by the formation of a golden cross on its daily chart, a bullish technical indicator suggesting a potential for continued gains. The stock has recovered from a June low of $190 to its current price of $289, driven by investor dip-buying and a broader rebound in software stocks. The positive sentiment is amplified by the strong performance of Salesforce following its earnings report, indicating a favorable environment for tech companies. Investors will be closely watching Adobe's upcoming earnings report for further confirmation of its growth trajectory.

  • 8/27/2026NEUTRAL
    Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index: Adobe (ADBE)

    Adobe Inc. (ADBE), a key component of the Nasdaq-100®, is highlighted for its subscription-based software offerings in creative and document management. The analysis focuses on the company's competitive strengths, its growth trajectory fueled by artificial intelligence, and its strategy of leveraging free AI tools to attract new users and secure future recurring revenue. This deep dive into ADBE's business model and AI integration provides investors with insights into its long-term value proposition within the tech sector.

via Markets Gazette