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adidas AG (ADDDF)

合理估值
Consumer CyclicalFootwear & AccessoriesGermany

基本面

68

价格

$144.00

市值

$24.90B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

adidas designs and markets sporting goods — footwear, apparel and accessories — sold under its own brand worldwide. It owns almost no factories: production is outsourced to independent manufacturing partners, mostly in Asia, while adidas keeps design, marketing and distribution in house. Products reach customers through wholesale retail partners and through adidas's own stores and e-commerce sites.

盈利方式

Revenue comes from selling physical goods, split between wholesale shipments to retail partners and direct sales through adidas-owned stores and online channels. Margins depend on the mix between the two channels and on how much price premium the brand can hold against rivals, which in turn rests on marketing spend, athlete and team sponsorships, and a steady stream of new product releases.

分部营收

Footwear57.4%

The largest category by far, spanning performance sport and lifestyle sneakers.

Apparel35.3%

Sportswear and casual clothing sold under the same brand, the fastest-growing of the three categories in 2025.

Accessories and gear7.3%

Bags, balls and other equipment; the smallest category.

护城河

品牌 · 狭窄

Decades of sponsorship deals with athletes, clubs and national federations built a globally recognised brand that commands shelf space and a price premium over generic sportswear. The advantage is real but contested day to day: Nike, Puma and newer specialists like On and Hoka compete hard for the same retail space and the same consumer attention.

需求驱动因素

周期性

Footwear and apparel are discretionary purchases that households cut back on when budgets tighten, and wholesale partners trim orders further in anticipation of weaker demand. Fashion cycles and how fresh the product range looks against competitors also move demand independently of the broader economy.

主要风险

  • Currency exposure — The company sources products in different currencies than it sells them in, so exchange-rate swings can materially affect reported results despite hedging of projected sourcing needs.
  • Consumer demand and product misses — Failing to anticipate shifting consumer preferences or to keep the product range innovative risks losing revenue and market share to competitors.
  • Competitive and retail pressure — Consolidation among competitors and retailers, plus the growth of private-label sportswear, add pricing pressure and squeeze margins.
  • Sourcing and business-partner dependence — Almost all production is outsourced to independent manufacturing partners; dependency on key suppliers, a partner's financial default or misconduct can disrupt sourcing and harm the brand's reputation.

看多理由

Buyers argue that record 2025 revenue and management's guidance for continued sales and profit growth show the brand turnaround is working, that apparel's double-digit growth signals the product range is regaining relevance, and that a globally recognised brand still commands pricing power most competitors cannot match.

看空理由

Sellers fear that almost all production outsourced in Asia leaves the company exposed to currency swings, tariffs and supplier disruption at once, that intensifying competition from both legacy rivals and newer specialist brands could erode the recent momentum, and that a brand-driven business can lose relevance as quickly as it regains it.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年8月23日 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 16.7Score: 63Market cap: $30.78B

The world's largest sporting goods company, competing head-to-head with adidas in performance footwear, apparel and athlete and team sponsorships in every market.

PUMA SEPUM.DE

The other Herzogenaurach brand, born from the same family, competing directly with adidas in football boots, running and sport-inspired lifestyle sneakers, above all in Europe.

New Balance Athletics, Inc.Not tracked

A privately held US brand that has become one of the three biggest sneaker sellers worldwide, taking the same lifestyle and running customers adidas serves with Originals and Adizero.

ANTA Sports Products Limited (安踏体育用品有限公司)2020.HK

The leading sportswear group in China by market share, competing with adidas for the Chinese consumer in running, basketball and training gear.

On Holding AGONON

A fast-growing Swiss brand taking share in premium running footwear and, increasingly, in everyday sportswear — the same shelves and the same runners adidas targets.

ASICS Corporation (株式会社アシックス)7936.T

A Japanese specialist in performance running and court shoes, competing with adidas for serious runners and for retail space in running specialty stores.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$26.04B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$1.38B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$952M

股东权益合计

$5.96B

负债合计

$5.98B

流动比率

1.39

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

2.24

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$189.28

当前价格

$144.00

安全边际

+23.9%

公允价值区间

$123.03 - $255.53

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$199.52
现金流折现法(DCF):$224.52
市盈率法(P/E):$102.09
格雷厄姆成长公式:$401.54
盈利能力价值(EPV):$91.92
合理市净率(P/B):$94.96
股息折现模型(戈登模型):$31.22
P/FFO(运营资金):数据不足,无法计算
周期中段收益:数据不足,无法计算
市销率法(P/S):$254.52
分析师共识:强力买入 (27B / 8H / 1S)
最近财报超预期:-15.52%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

18.24

ROE

24.3%

市净率(P/B)

4.18

P/FCF

26.15

毛利率

51.6%

ROIC

14.7%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

14.7%

WACC

8.6%

ROIC − WACC

+6.1 pp

ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(13)

  • ROIC 14.7%
  • Gross Margin 51.6%
  • P/FCF 26.15
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • ROE 23.6%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.1%
  • Analyst Consensus 75% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 0.65
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.72
  • Net Margin Trend 5.4% vs 3.2%

未通过(6)

  • Price CAGR -0.08%
  • P/B Ratio 4.18
  • CapEx intensity
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -1.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

不可用(8)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-评分

2/9

存在严重财务隐患

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.72

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

该公司暂无机构申报数据。

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Bjorn GuldenChairman of Global Brands, CEO & Chairman of Executive Board60
Mr. Harm OhlmeyerCFO & Member of Executive Board57
Ms. Michelle RobertsonGlobal Head of HR, People & Culture and Member of Executive Board50
Mr. Mathieu SidokpohouMember of Executive Board & Chief Commercial Officer50
Mr. Gunter WeiglSenior VP of Brand Partnerships & Employee Representative Member of Supervisory Board60
Ms. Linda EvenhuisEmp Rep Member of Supervisory Board, Sen Lead Prog & Facilitation - EMEA, GCA, APAC of Global HR52
Mr. Thomas SapperEmployee Representative Member of Supervisory Board & Senior Director of Tech Project Management59
Ms. Birgit KretschmerMember of Executive Board55
Mr. Sebastian SteffenSenior Vice President of Investor Relations & Corporate Communications-
Dr. Jan HeinemannGeneral Counsel-

审计风险

9

董事会风险

3

薪酬风险

4

股东权利风险

1

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

Latest News

Recent headlines for ADDDF, sourced from Markets Gazette.

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