Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE)
合理估值基本面
57
价格
$4.57
市值
$3.21B
第一部分 · 这家公司值多少
概览
Baytex is a Calgary-based oil and gas producer that pumps crude oil and natural gas out of the ground in Western Canada and sells it into commodity markets. After selling its U.S. Eagle Ford shale assets in December 2025, it is now a pure Canadian producer, with heavy oil fields in Peace River and Lloydminster and light oil in the growing Duvernay and Viking formations. It does not refine or retail fuel — it only extracts and sells raw hydrocarbons.
盈利方式
Baytex earns revenue by selling barrels of oil and cubic metres of natural gas at prices it does not control — set by global crude benchmarks and, for its heavy oil, by a discount to those benchmarks that reflects transport and blending costs. It books a sale the moment production is delivered to a pipeline or buyer; there are no long-term supply contracts locking in price. Profitability depends almost entirely on the gap between the market price received and the cost of extracting each barrel.
分部营收
Thick, discounted crude from Peace River and Lloydminster that requires blending with lighter diluent before it can move through pipelines.
Higher-value light crude, increasingly from the growing Duvernay formation, priced closer to benchmark levels than heavy oil.
Natural gas liquids such as propane and butane recovered alongside oil and gas production.
Natural gas produced alongside the oil, a small and stable share of total sales.
护城河
未发现护城河 · 无Baytex sells an undifferentiated commodity at prices set by global and regional benchmarks it cannot influence. Its heavy oil assets carry no pricing power — buyers pay a standard discount to WCS regardless of who produced the barrel — and any competitor with capital and drilling rights can access the same Alberta formations.
需求驱动因素
周期性Revenue rises and falls with global oil prices, which are set by OPEC+ supply decisions, global demand and pipeline capacity out of Western Canada. The 2025 divestiture of Eagle Ford removed exposure to U.S. shale economics but concentrated the company further on a single, cyclical commodity: Canadian heavy and light oil.
主要风险
- Commodity price volatility — Baytex states that its financial condition is highly sensitive to prevailing crude oil and natural gas prices, which are set by factors entirely outside its control, including OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical events.
- Need to keep replacing reserves — Oil and gas reserves deplete as they are produced, so long-term results depend on finding and developing new reserves at acceptable cost, with no assurance the company will succeed at economic prices.
- Pipeline capacity and heavy-oil discount — Insufficient pipeline capacity to move Canadian crude to market has repeatedly forced Canadian producers to accept steep discounts to benchmark prices, and the company does not control the regulatory processes governing new pipeline capacity.
- Climate regulation and emissions costs — Baytex is subject to evolving emissions, carbon and environmental regulation, with no assurance its capital budget will be sufficient to cover future obligations tied to greenhouse gas emissions.
- Indigenous land and rights claims — Opposition by Indigenous groups to the company's operations or development activities could delay projects, raise legal and advisory costs, and damage its ability to explore and develop new properties.
看多理由
Buyers argue that the Eagle Ford sale simplified the story into a focused, lower-decline Canadian heavy-oil and Duvernay producer with a much lighter debt load, freeing cash flow for buybacks and giving the market a cleaner read on the value of its Alberta acreage.
看空理由
Sellers fear that concentrating entirely on Canadian heavy oil leaves the company more exposed to WCS price swings and pipeline bottlenecks than before, with less geographic diversification to cushion a downturn in any single basin.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Tamarack is the largest pure-play producer in Alberta's Clearwater heavy oil fairway, drilling the same multi-lateral wells for the same heavy crude barrels that now form the core of Baytex's Canadian business.
Obsidian develops heavy oil in the Peace River and Bluesky-Clearwater area, acreage directly adjacent to Baytex's Peavine and Peace River properties, and sells the same blended heavy barrel to the same refiners.
Rubellite is a smaller Clearwater and Mannville Stack heavy oil specialist competing with Baytex for the same undrilled land, the same drilling crews and the same heavy oil buyers in Alberta.
Strathcona is a pure-play Canadian heavy oil producer built around Lloydminster and Cold Lake, the same Western Canadian heavy crude market where Baytex's Lloydminster assets sell their production.
Whitecap is one of the largest Western Canadian producers and the biggest Duvernay landholder, competing with Baytex both for Duvernay liquids-rich volumes and for the same Canadian energy investors and acquisition targets.
资产负债表与流动性
营收
$892M
最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)
净利润
$-717M
最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)
自由现金流
$-226M
股东权益合计
$1.52B
负债合计
$149M
流动比率
2.82
利息覆盖率
-
债务/EBITDA
0.21
每股收益
营收与净利润
自由现金流
收入构成
历史财务表
利润率变化
债务变化
债务负担有多重
增长一览表
增长 — 营业收入
公允价值估算
公允价值
$5.22
当前价格
$4.57
安全边际
+12.5%
公允价值区间
$4.96 - $5.48
所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。
估算方法
估值指标
市盈率(P/E)
32.28
ROE
-8.8%
市净率(P/B)
2.12
P/FCF
-
毛利率
59.0%
ROIC
32.4%
盈利能力雷达图
价值创造(经济护城河)
ROIC
32.4%
WACC
7.7%
ROIC − WACC
+24.7 pp
ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。
基本面分析标准
通过(8)
- ROIC 32.4%
- Gross Margin 59.0%
- P/B Ratio 2.12
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Revenue Growth 5Y 12.8%
- Analyst Consensus 57% Buy
未通过(7)
- Price CAGR -0.63%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- ROE 4.9%
- Earnings Surprise avg -1502.9%
- Net Margin Trend -18.2% vs 5.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
不可用(12)
- EPS data insufficient
- P/FCF NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Operating Margin NaN%
- CapEx intensity
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-评分
存在严重财务隐患
盈利质量
低质量:需深入审查会计处理
股权稀释
正在回购股份,对股东友好
机构持股
公司治理
管理团队
| 姓名 | 职位 | 年龄 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Chad E. Lundberg | President, CEO & Director | 43 |
| Mr. Chad L. Kalmakoff C.A. | Executive VP & CFO | 48 |
| Mr. Kendall D. Arthur | Chief Operating Officer | 44 |
| Mr. James R. Maclean | Senior VP of Commercial & General Counsel | 45 |
| Mr. Chris M.P. Lessoway | VP of Finance & Treasurer | 40 |
审计风险
7
董事会风险
10
薪酬风险
4
股东权利风险
1
第二部分 · 价格与买入时机
这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。
Latest News
Recent headlines for BTE, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 3/5/2026NEUTRALBaytex Energy (BTE) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
The Q4 2025 earnings transcript for Baytex Energy (BTE) has been released. While the detailed content is unavailable, the mere release of an earnings transcript is a standard event for publicly traded companies. This event, in itself, does not provide direct insight into the company's financial performance or future outlook. Therefore, without access to the actual earnings figures, guidance discussions, or analyst Q&A, it is impossible to determine a directional impact on the stock price. Investors will need to review the full document for implications.
via Markets Gazette