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Calix, Inc. (CALX)

合理估值
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureUnited States

基本面

66

价格

$34.62

市值

$2.09B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Calix sells the equipment, software and cloud platform that internet, phone and cable companies use to deliver broadband to homes and businesses. Roughly 1,600 mostly small and mid-sized providers use its systems to run their networks and its software to sell and support subscriber services such as security and Wi-Fi management. The U.S. and Canada, boosted by government broadband subsidy programs, account for the large majority of sales.

盈利方式

Revenue comes mostly from selling network appliances — the physical boxes that carry broadband into homes — recognized when shipped, plus a smaller but faster-growing stream of software and platform subscriptions billed over time. The appliance business still funds most of the company today, but management is steering providers toward the subscription software, which carries higher margins and recurs, rather than being a one-time equipment sale.

分部营收

Appliance82.6%

Physical broadband access equipment installed in the network and at the customer premises, sold upfront when shipped.

Software and Services17.4%

Cloud platform subscriptions, managed Wi-Fi and subscriber-facing apps billed over time — the smaller, faster-growing part of the business.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Purchases are tied to broadband providers' own capital spending plans, which follow both their subscriber growth ambitions and the availability of government funding programs for rural and underserved areas. A change in public subsidy timing can move orders forward or back independent of underlying demand for internet access.

主要风险

  • Reliance on third-party manufacturing — Calix depends on outside manufacturers and sole- or limited-source suppliers, many concentrated in Asia, to build its equipment. A disruption at one of these partners can delay shipments the company cannot quickly replace.
  • Competition on price and functionality — The company competes in a broadband equipment and software market where rivals with greater financial resources can undercut it on price, and it expects at least two fiber providers to be competing for subscribers in most markets.
  • Dependence on public broadband funding — A meaningful part of demand rides on public and private funding programs for broadband buildout in underserved areas; changes in the size, timing or rules of those programs can delay or reduce customer orders.

客户集中度

The company states that no single customer accounted for more than 10% of revenue in the periods it reports, spreading demand across roughly 1,600 broadband providers rather than a handful of large accounts.

看多理由

Buyers argue that broadband providers are steadily adopting Calix's cloud platform on top of its equipment, that no single customer concentration risk exists across roughly 1,600 accounts, and that government-funded rural buildout gives the appliance business years of visible demand.

看空理由

Sellers fear that the appliance business still drives most revenue and remains exposed to lumpy capital spending by small providers, that larger competitors can undercut Calix on price, and that a slowdown or redesign of public broadband subsidy programs would remove a meaningful source of near-term demand.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.ADTN

Adtran sells the same fiber access equipment, XGS-PON and GPON systems plus subscriber devices, to the same North American regional and rural broadband providers Calix depends on.

Nokia Corporation (Nokia Oyj)NOKIA

Nokia's fixed network division competes for the same fiber-to-the-home build-outs, offering PON line cards, optical network terminals and home Wi-Fi gateways to telecom operators worldwide.

Harmonic Inc.HLIT

Harmonic's broadband access platform targets the same cable operators and fiber providers, selling virtualized DOCSIS and PON access as the alternative to Calix's access edge systems.

CommScope Holding Company, Inc.COMM

CommScope supplies broadband operators with competing PON access nodes and residential gateways, bidding for the same network-upgrade budgets as Calix.

Plume Design, Inc.Not tracked

Plume competes directly with Calix Cloud and SmartLife by selling service providers the cloud software that manages home Wi-Fi and the subscriber experience.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$1.11B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/27)

净利润

$51M

最近12个月(截至2026/6/27)

自由现金流

$116M

股东权益合计

$859M

负债合计

$199M

流动比率

2.83

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

0.36

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$30.74

当前价格

$34.62

安全边际

-12.6%

公允价值区间

$19.98 - $41.49

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$62.33
现金流折现法(DCF):$21.05
市盈率法(P/E):$14.69
格雷厄姆成长公式:$5.68
盈利能力价值(EPV):$6.59
合理市净率(P/B):$5.95
股息折现模型(戈登模型):数据不足,无法计算
P/FFO(运营资金):$9.04
周期中段收益:数据不足,无法计算
市销率法(P/S):$86.58
分析师共识:强力买入 (12B / 2H / 0S)
最近财报超预期:+13.94%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

45.81

ROE

2.1%

市净率(P/B)

3.05

P/FCF

25.33

毛利率

56.6%

ROIC

6.5%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

6.5%

WACC

11.1%

ROIC − WACC

-4.6 pp

ROIC 低于资本成本:公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(17)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 16.20%
  • ROIC 6.5%
  • Gross Margin 56.6%
  • P/FCF 25.33
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 5.5%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 13.1%
  • Analyst Consensus 86% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 10.2%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.14
  • Net Margin Trend 4.6% vs -3.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

未通过(7)

  • P/B Ratio 3.05
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • ROE 6.5%
  • Share Dilution 4.1%

不可用(3)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-评分

6/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

2.14

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

4.1%

正在发行新股,稀释所有权

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Michael WeeningCEO, President & Director56
Mr. Cory J. Sindelar CPAChief Financial Officer56
Mr. John DurocherChief Operations Officer58
Mr. Shane Todd-Marshall EleniakChief Product Officer57
Ms. Nancy FazioliVice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. Douglas W. McNittExecutive VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary60
Mr. Juergen LindnerChief Marketing Officer-
Mr. Mark DresslerChief Revenue Officer-
Ms. Martha GalleyChief Sustainability Officer-
Ms. Parul KapoorChief Talent & Culture Officer-

审计风险

2

董事会风险

6

薪酬风险

5

股东权利风险

7

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-20

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-07-21

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-07-20

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for CALX, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 4/21/2026NEUTRAL
    Calix Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

    Calix Inc. held its Q1 2026 Earnings Call on April 21, 2026. While the transcript is available, no specific financial figures, forward-looking statements, or significant market-moving announcements were detailed in the provided summary. The call likely covered operational updates, segment performance, and strategic initiatives. Investors would typically look for revenue growth, profitability metrics, and guidance for future quarters. Without these details, the immediate market impact remains neutral, pending further analysis of the full transcript for any subtle shifts in performance or outlook.

  • 3/4/2026POSITIVE
    Fund Discloses New $6 Million Bet on Calix Amid 55% Stock Surge

    An investment fund has disclosed a new $6 million long bet on Calix Inc. (CALX), a move that comes as the company's stock has already surged 55%. Calix, which delivers cloud-based platforms and analytics to broadband service providers across U.S. and international markets, appears to be benefiting from renewed investor interest. This significant fund investment suggests strong conviction in the company's future growth potential, despite the recent rally. For investors, this could signal further capital appreciation opportunities.

via Markets Gazette