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Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)

合理估值
Consumer CyclicalTravel ServicesUnited States

基本面

64

价格

$24.54

市值

$29.84B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Carnival Corporation & plc operates cruise ships under brands including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line and Cunard, selling multi-day vacations that bundle lodging, meals, entertainment and transportation between ports into one trip. It is the largest cruise operator in the world by fleet size and passenger volume, owns most of the private islands and destination resorts its ships visit, and sells directly to consumers as well as through travel agents.

盈利方式

Revenue has two parts: passenger ticket revenue, booked and largely paid before the cruise sails, and onboard and other revenue from spending during the trip on drinks, excursions, casinos, wifi and spa services, which carries higher margin than the ticket itself. Because a ship's capacity is fixed and its costs are largely the same whether cabins are full or empty, occupancy and onboard spending per passenger matter more to profit than the headline ticket price.

分部营收

North America and Australia66.2%

Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line and other brands sailing itineraries sold mainly to North American and Australian guests.

Europe31.6%

Cunard, Costa, AIDA and P&O Cruises brands operating itineraries sold mainly to European guests.

需求驱动因素

周期性

Cruising is discretionary leisure spending, so bookings and onboard spending contract when consumer confidence or disposable income falls, and the business proved it can stop almost entirely in a crisis, as it did during the pandemic. Fuel prices, which the company cannot fully pass through to already-booked guests, add a second source of swings unrelated to demand itself.

主要风险

  • Fuel cost and availability — The company states that increases in fuel costs, changes in the types of fuel consumed, and disruptions in fuel supply may adversely impact scheduled itineraries and costs.
  • Environmental and emissions regulation — Greenhouse gas and other emissions rules can materially affect results; the EU Emissions Trading System alone cost the company $91 million in 2025 on the share of emissions currently within its scope, a share set to rise in future years.
  • Cybersecurity and data privacy — Cybersecurity incidents and data privacy breaches, along with disruptions to information technology operations, may adversely impact business operations and lead to fines, penalties and reputational damage.
  • Regulatory and compliance exposure — Changes in and non-compliance with laws on health, environment, safety, security, data protection, anti-corruption, sanctions and labor can be costly and lead to litigation, enforcement actions and fines across the many jurisdictions the fleet operates in.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 16.4Score: 72Market cap: $64.88B

Named by Carnival in its 10-K as a principal competitor, it sells the same contemporary and premium ocean cruises through Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity and Silversea, chasing the same Caribbean, Alaska and Mediterranean holidaymakers.

P/E: 8.9Score: 56Market cap: $6.57B

The third of the big listed operators Carnival names in its 10-K, it covers the same ladder of price points as Carnival — Norwegian in the mass market, Oceania and Regent Seven Seas against Holland America, Princess and Seabourn.

P/E: 26.7Score: 69Market cap: $25.29B

Its 20-F lists Holland America Line, Princess Cruises and Seabourn — all Carnival brands — among the operators it competes with for premium and luxury ocean passengers, and it also takes river-cruise customers who might otherwise sail with Carnival.

MSC Cruises S.A. (MSC Crociere)Not tracked

Privately held and also named in Carnival's 10-K, it is the fourth operator of the group that holds about 80% of industry capacity and competes head-on with Costa and AIDA for European passengers as well as in the Caribbean.

TUI AGNot tracked

Through TUI Cruises and Marella Cruises it sells packaged cruise holidays to German and British customers, the same buyers Carnival serves with AIDA Cruises and P&O Cruises UK.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$27.31B

最近12个月(截至2026/5/31)

净利润

$3.07B

最近12个月(截至2026/5/31)

自由现金流

$2.61B

股东权益合计

$12.27B

负债合计

$39.40B

流动比率

0.33

利息覆盖率

3.70

债务/EBITDA

3.60

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$26.12

当前价格

$24.54

安全边际

+6.0%

公允价值区间

$17.45 - $34.79

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$33.99
现金流折现法(DCF):$16.22
市盈率法(P/E):$20.40
格雷厄姆成长公式:$37.77
盈利能力价值(EPV):$13.63
合理市净率(P/B):$13.25
股息折现模型(戈登模型):数据不足,无法计算
P/FFO(运营资金):$64.83
周期中段收益:$43.78
市销率法(P/S):$33.73
分析师共识:强力买入 (27B / 6H / 0S)
最近财报超预期:+17.28%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

10.96

ROE

22.5%

市净率(P/B)

2.59

P/FCF

10.50

毛利率

-

ROIC

9.1%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

9.1%

WACC

11.5%

ROIC − WACC

-2.4 pp

ROIC 低于资本成本:公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(17)

  • ROIC 9.1%
  • P/FCF 10.50
  • P/B Ratio 2.59
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 16.3%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 24.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 36.6%
  • Analyst Consensus 82% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 17.2%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.21
  • Net Margin Trend 11.2% vs 9.7%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

未通过(8)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR -2.08%
  • Price CAGR -8.34%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Share Dilution 2.7%

不可用(3)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-评分

7/9

财务状况强健

score
criteria

盈利质量

2.21

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

2.7%

正在发行新股,稀释所有权

机构持股

该公司暂无机构申报数据。

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Michael Meir ArisonExecutive Chairman of the Board76
Mr. Joshua Ian WeinsteinCEO & Director51
Mr. David BernsteinCFO & Chief Accounting Officer67
Mr. Enrique Miguez J.D.General Counsel60
Ms. Bettina A. DeynesGlobal Chief Human Resources Officer52
Mr. Lars LjoenChief Maritime Officer55
Ms. Beth RobertsSenior Vice President of Investor Relations-
Ms. Jody VenturoniChief Communications Officer-
Hon. E. H. Horst RaheLife President of AIDA Cruises-
Mr. Adolfo M. PerezSenior Vice President of Trade Sales and Marketing for Carnival Cruise Line-

审计风险

7

董事会风险

9

薪酬风险

1

股东权利风险

9

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-01-27

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-09-29

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-09-29

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for CCL, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 2d agoPOSITIVE
    Sprint sul debito di Carnival: utili record possono battere tassi più alti?

    Carnival Corporation reported a record third-quarter net income of $1.9 billion on record revenue of $8.44 billion, significantly beating expectations. The cruise line is leveraging its strong operational performance to aggressively pay down its pandemic-era debt. This robust cash flow generation is critical for reducing high-interest debt before unfavorable refinancing conditions arise. Investors are watching closely as the company aims to improve its balance sheet, a key factor for future profitability and shareholder value, despite a recent stock price dip.

  • 2d agoPOSITIVE
    Carnival Raises Full-Year Outlook on Record Booking Demand

    Carnival Corporation & plc has elevated its full-year financial forecast, driven by unprecedented booking demand for upcoming voyages. The cruise giant reported that demand for future sailings reached an all-time high during the most recent quarter. This surge in bookings indicates strong consumer confidence and a robust appetite for leisure travel, suggesting that Carnival is well-positioned to exceed previous revenue and profit expectations. Investors will be watching for continued momentum in booking trends and the company's ability to translate this demand into enhanced profitability.

  • 6/18/2026POSITIVE
    Carnival Stock Rises As Oil Prices Fall After MoU

    Carnival Corporation (CCL) stock saw a notable increase on Thursday, driven by a significant drop in oil prices. This decline in fuel costs is attributed to a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the U.S. and Iran, potentially leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a major consumer of fuel, the cruise industry, and Carnival in particular, stands to benefit directly from lower operating expenses. This development is viewed positively by investors, suggesting improved profit margins and a more favorable cost environment for the company.

  • 6/16/2026NEUTRAL
    Carnival Earnings Are Imminent; These Most Accurate Analysts Revise Forecasts Ahead Of Earnings Call

    Carnival Corporation is set to announce its Q2 earnings on June 23rd. Current analyst consensus anticipates an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.34 and revenue projections of $6.69 billion. While recent analyst ratings from firms like Jefferies, Goldman Sachs, and Credit Suisse show a mixed sentiment with 'Hold', 'Neutral', and 'Outperform' ratings respectively, the upcoming earnings report will be crucial for investors. The market will be looking for any deviations from these forecasts, which could significantly impact the stock's trajectory.

  • 5/28/2026NEGATIVE
    Carnival Data Breach Exposes Names, Addresses And Government ID Numbers After Cybercriminals Trick Employee In Social Engineering Attack

    Carnival Corporation disclosed a significant data breach following a social engineering attack that compromised an employee account. The breach exposed sensitive personal information including names, addresses, and government identification numbers of individuals. This incident poses substantial risks of identity theft and fraud for those affected, and could lead to significant regulatory fines and reputational damage for Carnival. Investors will be closely monitoring the company's response, potential legal liabilities, and the financial impact of remediation efforts and any potential lawsuits stemming from the compromised data.

  • 4/8/2026POSITIVE
    Carnival’s stock soars as the Iran cease-fire provides relief from surging fuel costs

    Carnival's stock experienced a significant surge following the announcement of a cease-fire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. This development is expected to provide relief from escalating fuel costs, a major operational expense for cruise lines. Investors are optimistic that reduced fuel prices will improve Carnival's profit margins and enhance consumer spending confidence, potentially leading to increased bookings. The news suggests a more favorable operating environment, which could translate into stronger financial performance for the company in the near to medium term.

  • 3/27/2026NEGATIVE
    Carnival cuts profit outlook as a jump in fuel costs offsets record cruise demand

    Carnival Corporation & plc has lowered its profit outlook, citing a significant surge in fuel costs. The cruise operator reported that fuel expenses for the current quarter are expected to jump by over 40% compared to the previous quarter. While record cruise demand has been observed, the escalating operational costs are now offsetting this positive trend. This development is likely to impact investor sentiment and could lead to downward revisions in earnings estimates for the company.

  • 3/27/2026NEGATIVE
    Carnival Cuts Profit Outlook as Iran War Pushes up Fuel Cost

    Carnival Corp. has lowered its full-year profit forecast, citing a significant increase in operational expenses due to soaring crude oil prices. The company, a major player in the cruise industry, is directly impacted by rising fuel costs, which are a substantial component of its operating budget. This revision signals potential headwinds for the company's financial performance in the coming quarters. Investors will be closely watching management's strategies to mitigate these cost pressures and their effectiveness in the current volatile energy market.

via Markets Gazette