Dynatrace Inc (DT)
被高估基本面
62
价格
$58.92
市值
$16.72B
第一部分 · 这家公司值多少
概览
Dynatrace sells software that watches other software. Large companies run their applications across cloud services, containers and data centres, and when something slows down or breaks it is rarely obvious where. Dynatrace installs lightweight agents inside those environments, collects the resulting telemetry — traces, metrics, logs, user sessions, security signals — into a single data store it calls Grail, maps the dependencies between every component with a technology it calls Smartscape, and uses AI to point at the probable cause rather than leaving a human to read dashboards. Around that core the company also sells runtime application security, digital experience monitoring, business analytics and tooling for developers. As of 31 March 2026 the platform served roughly 4,100 customers in more than 110 countries, and the company reported total revenue of $2,018.4 million for fiscal 2026, the year ended 31 March 2026.
盈利方式
Almost all of the money is subscription money. The dominant contract form is the Dynatrace Platform Subscription: the customer commits to a minimum annual spend at the level of the whole platform, then draws that commitment down against actual usage at a published rate card, with any overage billed monthly at the same rates rather than at penalty prices. Committing to more buys a bigger discount, which pushes customers to consolidate more of their monitoring onto the platform. Customers can run the software as Dynatrace's SaaS or host it themselves under Dynatrace Managed, on the same subscription pricing. A small service line — implementation, consulting and training — sits alongside and exists largely to get subscriptions live. In fiscal 2026 subscription revenue was $1,929.7 million of $2,018.4 million total, and annual recurring revenue reached $2,053.6 million at year end.
分部营收
Recurring access to the Dynatrace platform — observability, application security and AI operations — sold to enterprise IT, development and security teams, whether hosted by Dynatrace or deployed by the customer. $1,929.7 million in fiscal 2026.
Implementation, consulting and training sold to the same enterprise customers, mostly to get new subscriptions deployed and expanded. $88.7 million in fiscal 2026.
护城河
转换成本 · 狭窄Dynatrace's agents sit inside production systems and the platform's dependency map and historical data are built up over time, so replacing it means re-instrumenting live infrastructure, retraining the teams who page on it, and losing the accumulated baseline — work most organisations avoid while everything is running. The platform-level commitment model reinforces this by rewarding customers who move more workloads onto it. The advantage is real but not wide: the company itself names Cisco (AppDynamics and Splunk), Datadog, Elastic, Grafana and New Relic as principal competitors, alongside open-source tooling and monitoring bundled into the cloud providers themselves, and it acknowledges that larger rivals have greater brand recognition, broader distribution and substantially greater financial and technical resources.
需求驱动因素
中度周期性Demand rides on how much software companies run in the cloud and how complex it becomes — a structural trend that does not stop in a downturn, since systems still have to stay up. Most of the revenue is contracted in advance under multi-year platform commitments, which cushions a bad year. What does move with the cycle is the expansion layer: when IT budgets tighten, customers renew at flat commitments instead of raising them, slow new workload onboarding, and take longer to sign, and the company itself points to long and seasonally uneven sales cycles as a source of quarterly variability. So the base holds up better than most software, the growth rate does not.
主要风险
- Growth may not continue at historical rates — The company states that its rapid historical revenue growth should not be taken as an indicator of future performance, and that the overall demand for observability software is itself uncertain.
- Intense competition and pricing pressure — Dynatrace competes with infrastructure monitoring, APM, log management, digital experience and security vendors, with open-source and commercial open-source projects, and with point solutions from the cloud providers. It flags the risk that customers do not accept its pricing model or that price competition erodes it, and that several competitors are far larger.
- Security incidents — The filing warns that security breaches, malware, hacking attacks and other compromises could harm the business — a pointed risk for a vendor whose agents run inside customers' production systems and whose platform holds their telemetry.
- Use of new and evolving AI technologies — The company discloses that its use of AI, both inside its products and in running the business, presents risks and challenges — the same technology it markets as a differentiator.
- Dependence on partners and channels — A material share of sales runs through partners, and the filing identifies the performance of those relationships as a risk. For fiscal 2026 and 2025 a single channel partner accounted for 10% of revenue.
- Long, unpredictable sales cycles — Enterprise deals take a long time to close and do so unevenly across the year, which the company cites as a source of variability in quarterly and annual results.
- Interoperability with customer infrastructure — The platform must keep working across the customer's IT estate as that estate changes; the filing treats loss of interoperability as a risk to adoption and retention.
客户集中度
The filing states that no end-customer represented more than 10% of revenue in fiscal 2026, 2025 or 2024; with roughly 4,100 customers the base is spread out. The concentration that does exist is in distribution rather than in end demand: one channel partner accounted for 10% of revenue in both fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2025. The filing does not disclose a combined share for the largest customers, so no figure is given here.
看多理由
Buyers argue that observability is becoming non-optional as companies push more workloads into cloud and AI systems that no human can trace by hand, and that Dynatrace is one of the few vendors selling a single platform instead of a shelf of tools. They point to fiscal 2026 revenue of $2,018.4 million, up 19%, ARR crossing $2 billion, and 96% of revenue arriving as subscriptions, alongside income from operations of $245.4 million and net income of $162.7 million — growth that is already funded by the business rather than by losses. They argue the platform commitment model works in the company's favour, because customers who consolidate more monitoring onto it get cheaper rates and become harder to dislodge, and that a base of roughly 4,100 enterprise customers in over 110 countries leaves room to keep widening the footprint inside accounts already won.
看空理由
Sellers fear that the market is crowded and that the crowd includes companies far larger: the filing names Cisco with AppDynamics and Splunk, Datadog, Elastic, Grafana and New Relic, and concedes those rivals can have greater brand recognition, broader distribution and substantially greater financial and technical resources — while open-source tooling and the monitoring bundled into the cloud providers themselves set a free-enough floor under prices. They note the company's own warning that its historical growth rate is not an indicator of the future and that overall demand for observability is uncertain, and that a consumption-based commitment model cuts both ways: usage that customers control can be throttled as easily as it can expand. They also point to the concentration sitting in distribution — one channel partner at 10% of revenue in each of the last two fiscal years — and to a sales cycle the company describes as long and unpredictable, which makes any single quarter a poor read on the business.
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Datadog is the closest full-platform rival to Dynatrace, selling the same unified observability suite — application performance monitoring, infrastructure metrics, logs and digital experience monitoring — to the same large cloud-native enterprise IT teams, and Dynatrace names it first among its principal competitors.
Through its AppDynamics and Splunk businesses Cisco sells enterprise application performance monitoring and log analytics into the same IT operations budgets Dynatrace targets, and Dynatrace lists it among its principal competitors.
New Relic competes for the same application performance monitoring contracts with a comparable all-in-one observability platform, and remains a named principal competitor even after being taken private in 2023.
Elastic's Observability and Security solutions, built on the Elasticsearch engine, win the same log management and monitoring workloads inside enterprise IT, often on price and on open-source flexibility.
Grafana Labs, still privately held, sells its open-source-based observability stack (Grafana, Loki, Mimir, Tempo) to the same engineering teams and is named a principal competitor in Dynatrace's most recent annual report.
资产负债表与流动性
营收
$2.10B
最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)
净利润
$151M
最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)
自由现金流
$530M
股东权益合计
$2.61B
负债合计
$1.80B
流动比率
1.21
利息覆盖率
318.16
债务/EBITDA
0.55
每股收益
营收与净利润
自由现金流
收入构成
历史财务表
利润率变化
债务变化
债务负担有多重
增长一览表
增长 — 营业收入
公允价值估算
公允价值
$48.98
当前价格
$58.92
安全边际
-20.3%
公允价值区间
$31.84 - $66.12
所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。
估算方法
估值指标
市盈率(P/E)
115.48
ROE
6.2%
市净率(P/B)
6.81
P/FCF
29.25
毛利率
81.4%
ROIC
7.5%
盈利能力雷达图
价值创造(经济护城河)
ROIC
7.5%
WACC
8.7%
ROIC − WACC
-1.2 pp
ROIC 低于资本成本:公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。
基本面分析标准
通过(19)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 10.55%
- ROIC 7.5%
- Gross Margin 81.4%
- P/FCF 29.25
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 12.1%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Revenue Growth 5Y 23.5%
- Analyst Consensus 76% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 3.8%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 3.95
- Share Dilution -1.0%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
未通过(7)
- P/B Ratio 6.81
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- ROE 5.7%
- PEG Ratio 7.26
- Net Margin Trend 7.2% vs 27.7%
不可用(1)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
Piotroski F-评分
信号混杂:部分领域需关注
盈利质量
高质量:盈利有现金流支撑
股权稀释
正在回购股份,对股东友好
机构持股
公司治理
管理团队
| 姓名 | 职位 | 年龄 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Rick M. McConnell | CEO & Director | 59 |
| Mr. Bernd Greifeneder | Founder, Executive VP & CTO | 53 |
| Mr. James Martin Benson | Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer | 59 |
| Mr. Dan Zugelder | Executive VP & Chief Revenue Officer | 57 |
| Mr. Steve McMahon | Executive VP & Chief Customer Officer | 52 |
| Mr. Daniel Yates | Senior VP, Corporate Controller & Chief Accounting Officer | 44 |
| Ms. Noelle Faris | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Nicole Fitzpatrick J.D. | Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Secretary | - |
| Mr. Michael J. Rogers | Chief People Officer | 43 |
| Mr. Steve Tack | Chief Product Officer | - |
审计风险
1
董事会风险
7
薪酬风险
4
股东权利风险
5
第二部分 · 价格与买入时机
这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。
损益历史
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for DT, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 4/28/2026NEUTRALDynatrace to Discuss Ideas With Starboard After Firm Takes Stake
Dynatrace Inc. has confirmed engagement with activist investor Starboard Value LP, following Starboard's recent acquisition of a stake in the software intelligence company. The firm intends to discuss strategic and operational ideas with Starboard, signaling a potential shift in corporate governance or strategy. While the announcement itself is neutral, the involvement of an activist investor often precedes significant changes that could impact shareholder value, either positively or negatively, depending on the proposed reforms and their execution.
- 4/28/2026POSITIVEDynatrace Surges 8% After Hours as Activist Investor Starboard Value Reportedly Takes Significant Stake
Dynatrace Inc. experienced an 8% surge in after-hours trading following reports that activist investor Starboard Value has acquired a significant stake in the company. This development signals potential strategic shifts, as Starboard is known for advocating for enhanced operational efficiency, share buybacks, and improved shareholder returns. The news comes amid existing growth concerns for Dynatrace, suggesting that Starboard's involvement could catalyze initiatives aimed at margin expansion and increased capital allocation to investors, potentially boosting the stock's valuation.
via Markets Gazette