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Daimler Truck Holding AG (DTGHF)

合理估值
IndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachineryGermany

基本面

69

价格

$41.51

市值

$31.82B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Daimler Truck builds and sells heavy trucks and buses under brands including Freightliner, Western Star and Mercedes-Benz. Spun off from Mercedes-Benz Group in 2021, it makes money selling the vehicles themselves and, through a captive finance arm, financing and leasing them to the fleets and operators that buy them. North America and Europe are its two largest markets.

盈利方式

Revenue is booked when a truck or bus is delivered to a dealer or fleet customer, so it tracks the industry-wide replacement cycle for commercial vehicles rather than steady consumption. A smaller, steadier stream comes from financial services — loans and leases on the vehicles Daimler Truck itself sold — and from parts and service, which holds up better than new-vehicle sales when the market slows.

分部营收

Mercedes-Benz Trucks39.9%

Heavy trucks sold mainly in Europe and Latin America under the Mercedes-Benz brand.

Trucks North America38.5%

Freightliner and Western Star trucks sold in the United States, Canada and Mexico — historically the group's largest and most cyclical market.

Daimler Buses12.1%

City, intercity and coach buses sold under the Mercedes-Benz and Setra brands, mostly in Europe and Latin America.

Trucks Asia9.7%

Trucks sold under the Fuso and BharatBenz brands across Japan, India and other Asian markets.

需求驱动因素

周期性

Truck orders follow freight volumes and haulage rates: when shippers have more goods to move and can charge more for it, fleets buy new trucks; when freight demand slumps, as it did through 2025, orders can fall for several quarters even after the freight market itself starts to recover, because fleets first work through excess capacity.

主要风险

  • Prolonged freight-market downturn — The company reported that the 2025 freight recession lasted longer than it had anticipated, with North American heavy-duty unit sales down sharply year over year, showing how quickly a soft freight market can cut into truck demand.
  • US tariff exposure — Daimler Truck recorded roughly €250 million of tariff-related costs in 2025, concentrated in North America, which by the company's own account cut its return on sales by more than a full percentage point.
  • Regional concentration and market cyclicality — North America and Europe together account for the large majority of unit sales, so a downturn in either region — as seen with the 6% decline in the European heavy-duty market in 2025 — has an outsized effect on group results.

看多理由

Buyers argue that Daimler Truck's roughly 40% share of the North American Class 8 market gives it pricing power once the freight cycle turns, and that its size lets it absorb a tough year like 2025 while smaller rivals struggle more.

看空理由

Sellers fear that the freight recession has already lasted longer than management expected, that US tariffs keep eating into North American margins, and that a business this dependent on two cyclical regions offers little shelter when both slow down at once.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 23.1Score: 67Market cap: $58.25B

Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF are the direct rivals of Freightliner and Western Star in the North American Class 8 market, Daimler Truck's most profitable segment, and of Mercedes-Benz Trucks in Europe.

TRATON SE8TRA

Through Scania, MAN and International, TRATON sells heavy and medium-duty trucks to the same European and North American fleet operators that buy Mercedes-Benz Trucks and Freightliner.

AB VolvoVOLV-B

Volvo Trucks, Mack, Renault Trucks and UD compete with Daimler Truck brand for brand in Europe, North America and Asia, down to the long-haul tractor and the aftersales service contract.

Isuzu Motors Limited (いすゞ自動車株式会社)7202

Isuzu fights for the same light and medium-duty distribution truck customers in Japan and across Asia where Daimler Truck sells under the FUSO brand.

Iveco Group N.V.IVG

Iveco competes with Mercedes-Benz Trucks across the full European range, from light commercial vehicles to heavy tractors and city buses, and is currently the subject of a takeover by Tata Motors.

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited (中国重汽(香港)有限公司)Not tracked

Sinotruk is a leading heavy-truck maker in China and a growing exporter to emerging markets, where it undercuts Daimler Truck on price for the same haulage customers.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$44.47B

截至最近已公布季度的最近12个月 — 根据每股指标估算

净利润

$2.55B

截至最近已公布季度的最近12个月 — 根据每股指标估算

自由现金流

$5.42B

股东权益合计

$22.57B

负债合计

$29.14B

流动比率

1.70

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

7.76

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$49.69

当前价格

$41.51

安全边际

+16.5%

公允价值区间

$32.30 - $67.08

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$51.26
现金流折现法(DCF):$148.54
市盈率法(P/E):$13.89
格雷厄姆成长公式:$23.61
盈利能力价值(EPV):$28.27
合理市净率(P/B):$39.73
股息折现模型(戈登模型):$31.35
P/FFO(运营资金):数据不足,无法计算
周期中段收益:数据不足,无法计算
市销率法(P/S):$166.35
分析师共识:买入 (16B / 5H / 2S)
最近财报超预期:+118.11%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

12.49

ROE

5.0%

市净率(P/B)

1.42

P/FCF

5.87

毛利率

17.9%

ROIC

4.8%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

4.8%

WACC

4.9%

ROIC − WACC

-0.0 pp

ROIC 与资本成本大致持平:公司仅仅覆盖了资本成本。

基本面分析标准

通过(13)

  • Price CAGR 6.30%
  • P/FCF 5.87
  • P/B Ratio 1.42
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 5.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • ROE 11.7%
  • Analyst Consensus 70% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 8.8%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.93

未通过(7)

  • ROIC 4.8%
  • Gross Margin 17.9%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 4.8%
  • Net Margin Trend 4.0% vs 5.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

不可用(7)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-评分

2/9

存在严重财务隐患

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.93

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

该公司暂无机构申报数据。

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Ms. Karin RadstromPresident, CEO & Member of the Board of Management46
Ms. Eva SchererCFO, Finance & Controlling and Member of the Management Board42
Mr. Jurgen HartwigHuman Resource Officer, Labor Director & Member of the Board of Management58
Mr. John O'LearyMember of the Board of Management65
Dr. Andreas GorbachMember of the Board of Management50
Mr. Achim PuchertMember of the Board of Management46
Mr. Raghavendra VaidyaChief Information Officer-
Mr. Marcus PoppeHead of Investor Relations-
Dr. Florian HoferChief Legal & Compliance Officer-
Mr. Thomas HovermannHead of Corporate Communications-

审计风险

4

董事会风险

5

薪酬风险

3

股东权利风险

1

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

Latest News

Recent headlines for DTGHF, sourced from Markets Gazette.

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