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PACCAR Inc. (PCAR)

合理估值
IndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachineryUnited States

基本面

64

价格

$109.81

市值

$58.25B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

PACCAR designs and manufactures heavy- and medium-duty trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF brand names, sold through a network of independent dealers across North America, Europe and other markets. Beyond building trucks, it also sells replacement parts to keep existing fleets running and lends money to dealers and truck buyers through its own finance arm, so a customer can buy a truck, service it and finance it all through PACCAR.

盈利方式

Most revenue comes from selling new trucks outright to fleets and owner-operators, a business with thin margins that swings with how many trucks the industry orders each year. Parts sales are steadier and more profitable, since a truck already on the road needs maintenance regardless of the economic cycle, and the financial services arm earns interest income on loans and leases, adding a third, more stable stream on top of manufacturing.

分部营收

Truck68.1%

Manufacture and sale of Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF heavy- and medium-duty trucks, the core and most cyclical part of the business.

Parts24.2%

Replacement parts sold to keep the large existing fleet of PACCAR trucks running, a steadier and higher-margin business than new truck sales.

Financial Services7.8%

Loans and leases provided to dealers and truck buyers across North America, Europe, Australia and South America to finance PACCAR vehicles.

护城河

规模效应 · 狭窄

Building heavy trucks at scale requires an established dealer network, decades of engineering and emissions-compliance investment, and manufacturing capacity that a new entrant cannot assemble quickly, keeping the field limited to a handful of global players. That barrier protects PACCAR's position but does not remove genuine competition: Daimler Truck, Traton's Volvo and Scania brands, and Navistar all fight for the same fleet customers.

需求驱动因素

周期性

Truck orders follow the freight cycle closely: when shipping volumes and freight rates are strong, fleets replace and expand their trucks, and when freight demand softens, orders can fall sharply within a year, as PACCAR's own truck segment revenue decline in 2025 showed. Parts and financial services smooth this out somewhat, but the core manufacturing business remains genuinely cyclical.

主要风险

  • Truck order cyclicality — Truck segment revenue fell 14% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025 as freight market conditions weakened, illustrating how quickly the core business can contract in a downturn.
  • Competition from other global truck makers — Daimler Truck, Traton's Volvo, Scania and Navistar brands compete directly for the same fleet and owner-operator customers across PACCAR's core markets.
  • Emissions and regulatory compliance costs — Tightening emissions standards in North America and Europe require continual investment in new engine and powertrain technology, adding cost and execution risk to every truck generation.
  • Tariffs and global supply chain exposure — PACCAR sources components and sells trucks across multiple countries, so changes in tariffs or trade policy can raise costs or disrupt production and sales in a given region.
  • Credit risk in the finance arm — PACCAR Financial Services holds a large portfolio of loans and leases to truck buyers; a downturn that hurts trucking businesses broadly would also raise defaults on that portfolio.

看多理由

Buyers argue that PACCAR Parts keeps delivering record, high-margin revenue that cushions the cyclical truck business, that decades of engineering and dealer relationships make the company one of only a handful of credible global heavy-truck makers, and that Financial Services adds a steady profit stream through the cycle.

看空理由

Sellers worry that the core truck business is genuinely cyclical and already showing a double-digit revenue decline as freight markets soften, that emissions regulation keeps forcing costly technology investment, and that competition from Daimler Truck and Traton's brands limits pricing power in a downturn.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 12.5Score: 77Market cap: $31.82B

Its Freightliner and Western Star brands are the largest sellers of Class 8 trucks in the United States and Canada, the same fleet customers Kenworth and Peterbilt sell to, and its Mercedes-Benz Trucks unit is DAF's biggest rival in Europe.

AB VolvoNot tracked

Volvo Trucks and Mack together hold about 18% of the North American Class 8 market and Volvo Trucks is among the top European heavy-duty brands, competing with PACCAR on long-haul and vocational trucks plus the parts and service business that follows them.

TRATON SE8TRA

Through International Motors (formerly Navistar) in North America and MAN and Scania in Europe, TRATON sells heavy and medium trucks to the same haulage fleets on both continents where PACCAR operates.

Iveco Group N.V.Not tracked

Iveco is one of the six principal competitors DAF faces in the European commercial vehicle market, disputing the same heavy- and medium-duty fleet orders across the European Union.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$27.82B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$2.50B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$3.67B

股东权益合计

$19.26B

负债合计

$25.07B

流动比率

0.71

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

4.53

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$128.75

当前价格

$109.81

安全边际

+14.7%

公允价值区间

$86.39 - $171.11

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$144.80
现金流折现法(DCF):$178.15
市盈率法(P/E):$78.67
格雷厄姆成长公式:$140.87
盈利能力价值(EPV):$54.50
合理市净率(P/B):$48.62
股息折现模型(戈登模型):$47.43
P/FFO(运营资金):$84.32
周期中段收益:数据不足,无法计算
市销率法(P/S):$149.93
分析师共识:买入 (11B / 14H / 1S)
最近财报超预期:+3.53%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

23.07

ROE

12.3%

市净率(P/B)

2.84

P/FCF

15.64

毛利率

20.0%

ROIC

-

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

-

WACC

7.8%

ROIC − WACC

-

基本面分析标准

通过(16)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 10.16%
  • P/FCF 15.64
  • P/B Ratio 2.84
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 12.7%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 8.7%
  • PEG Ratio 1.86
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.73
  • Share Dilution -0.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

未通过(7)

  • EPS CAGR 1.77%
  • Gross Margin 20.0%
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Analyst Consensus 42% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg -1.5%
  • Net Margin Trend 9.0% vs 9.9%

不可用(5)

  • ROIC NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-评分

5/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.73

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

0.0%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. R. Preston FeightCEO & Director57
Mr. Kevin D. BaneyPresident54
Mr. Brice J. PoplawskiSenior VP & CFO60
Mr. Mark C. PigottExecutive Chairman71
Mr. John N. RichExecutive VP & CTO55
Ms. A. Lily LeyVP & Chief Information Officer59
Mr. Ken HastingsSenior Director of Investor Relations-
Mr. Michael K. WaltonVP & General Counsel59
Paulo Henrique BolgarVP & Chief Human Resources Officer56
Laura J. BlochSenior Vice President47

审计风险

2

董事会风险

9

薪酬风险

4

股东权利风险

5

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-18

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-07-29

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-07-28

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for PCAR, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 16d agoNEUTRAL
    Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index: PACCAR (PCAR)

    This Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index feature delves into PACCAR's diverse operations, encompassing its truck manufacturing, parts sales, and financing segments. Key factors influencing its future outlook include the current freight cycle dynamics, record-breaking parts revenue, upcoming 2027 emissions regulations, and advancements in new powertrain technologies. Investors should monitor these elements for potential impacts on PACCAR's performance within the index.

via Markets Gazette