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F5, Inc. (FFIV)

合理估值
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureUnited States

基本面

71

价格

$447.26

市值

$25.29B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

F5 makes the software and hardware that sit between a company's applications and the internet, deciding how traffic is routed, balanced across servers and inspected for attacks. Its core product, BIG-IP, began as a physical box installed in corporate data centres and has been rebuilt into software that also runs in public clouds. Customers are mostly large enterprises, banks, telecoms and government agencies that cannot afford their applications going down.

盈利方式

Revenue splits across three lines: software (increasingly sold as term-based subscriptions rather than one-time licenses), systems (the physical BIG-IP appliances), and global services (support contracts and professional services tied to the installed base). Because the installed base is large and support renewals are recurring, roughly half of revenue comes from services rather than new sales, giving the business a steady, annuity-like component alongside lumpier hardware and software orders.

分部营收

Global Services51.1%

Support contracts and professional services tied to F5's installed base of software and hardware already deployed at customers.

Software26%

BIG-IP and related application security and delivery software, sold mostly as term subscriptions across data centre and cloud deployments.

Systems22.9%

The physical BIG-IP appliances that customers install in their own data centres, the company's original product line.

护城河

转换成本 · 狭窄

BIG-IP is wired into the core of a customer's network, handling traffic for critical applications; ripping it out means re-architecting how traffic reaches those applications, which enterprises avoid unless forced. That stickiness is being tested by cloud-native alternatives built into AWS, Azure and by rivals like Cloudflare and Akamai, which is why the advantage looks narrow rather than dominant today.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Demand tracks enterprise IT infrastructure budgets, which enterprises can delay but rarely cut to zero because the applications F5 protects keep running regardless of the economic cycle. Large deals bunch around refresh cycles and cloud migration projects, so quarterly revenue can be lumpy even though the underlying need for application delivery and security is fairly stable.

主要风险

  • Nation-state breach of internal systems — F5 disclosed in October 2025 that a sophisticated nation-state actor had persistent, long-term access to its internal systems and exfiltrated files including BIG-IP source code, a serious blow to trust for a company whose entire business is securing other people's networks.
  • Distributor concentration — Two distributors accounted for a third of fiscal 2025 revenue; losing or straining either relationship would disrupt a large share of order flow with little notice.
  • Single contract manufacturer — F5 relies on Flex Ltd. to manufacture its hardware appliances; a disruption at that single supplier would directly limit how many systems F5 can ship.
  • Competition from cloud-native and cloud-scale rivals — Akamai, Cloudflare, Cisco and the built-in traffic management tools of the major cloud providers all compete for the same application delivery and security spend, pressuring pricing and share.
  • Execution risk in the shift to subscriptions and SaaS — F5 is moving customers from perpetual hardware and licenses toward recurring software and cloud offerings; a slower-than-planned transition would show up as weaker growth even as the underlying business stays healthy.

客户集中度

主要客户占营收的33.3%

Two distribution partners together generated 33.3% of fiscal 2025 revenue. This is channel concentration rather than end-customer concentration, but it still means F5's near-term order flow depends heavily on the health of a couple of distributors.

看多理由

Buyers argue that F5's systems revenue swung back to strong growth in fiscal 2025, that its installed base keeps renewing high-margin services almost regardless of the broader IT cycle, and that the shift toward software subscriptions should raise the quality and predictability of earnings over time.

看空理由

Sellers worry that the October 2025 breach will slow sales cycles as customers reassess their trust in F5's security, that two distributors control an outsized share of revenue, and that cloud-native alternatives keep chipping away at the case for a dedicated on-premises appliance.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 38.4Score: 66Market cap: $15.87B

Akamai's edge platform sells web application firewall, bot defense and API security to the same web-facing application owners targeted by F5 Distributed Cloud Services.

P/E: —Score: 47Market cap: —

Cloudflare delivers load balancing, WAF and DDoS mitigation as a subscription service, pulling the same application-protection spend F5 wants to move to its cloud offering.

P/E: 63.2Score: 75Market cap: $131.09B

Fortinet bundles FortiWeb and FortiADC application security and delivery into the security platform it already sells to the same enterprise security buyers F5 calls on.

NetScaler (Citrix Systems, part of Cloud Software Group, Inc.)Not tracked

NetScaler sells the application delivery controllers and load balancers that compete head-to-head with F5's BIG-IP for the same enterprise and government data-center refresh budgets.

A10 Networks, Inc.ATEN

A10 offers high-throughput hardware and virtual application delivery controllers with DDoS protection, sold to the same service providers and large enterprises F5 serves.

Radware Ltd.RDWR

Radware competes directly on application delivery, web application firewall and DDoS protection for enterprises and carriers, the core of F5's product line.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$3.31B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$727M

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$906M

股东权益合计

$3.59B

负债合计

$2.73B

流动比率

1.66

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

0.29

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$402.37

当前价格

$447.26

安全边际

-11.2%

公允价值区间

$287.86 - $516.88

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$436.10
现金流折现法(DCF):$507.74
市盈率法(P/E):$314.91
格雷厄姆成长公式:$506.52
盈利能力价值(EPV):$109.62
合理市净率(P/B):$139.75
股息折现模型(戈登模型):数据不足,无法计算
P/FFO(运营资金):$221.74
周期中段收益:$363.94
市销率法(P/S):$293.51
分析师共识:买入 (11B / 8H / 1S)
最近财报超预期:+15.93%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

35.47

ROE

19.3%

市净率(P/B)

6.54

P/FCF

26.00

毛利率

81.9%

ROIC

12.7%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

12.7%

WACC

10.1%

ROIC − WACC

+2.5 pp

ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(21)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 16.42%
  • Price CAGR 12.16%
  • ROIC 12.7%
  • Gross Margin 81.9%
  • P/FCF 26.00
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 24.5%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 19.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 5.6%
  • Analyst Consensus 55% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 13.6%
  • PEG Ratio 1.89
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.44
  • Share Dilution -1.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

未通过(5)

  • P/B Ratio 6.54
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Net Margin Trend 22.0% vs 22.1%

不可用(2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-评分

8/9

财务状况强健

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.44

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-1.1%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Francois Locoh-DonouPresident, CEO & Chairman54
Mr. Edward Cooper WernerExecutive VP & Chief Financial Officer50
Dr. Thomas Dean Fountain Ph.D.Executive VP & COO48
Mr. John MaddisonExecutive VP & Chief Marketing Officer61
Mr. Chad Michael Whalen Esq.Executive VP & Chief Revenue Officer53
Mr. Michael F. MontoyaExecutive VP & Chief Technology Operations Officer54
Ms. Suzanne DuLongVice President of Investor Relations-
Ms. Angelique M. OkekeExecutive VP, General Counsel & Secretary49
Mr. Rob GrueningDirector of Corporate Communications-
Ms. Cathy PetermanExecutive VP & Chief People Officer-

审计风险

4

董事会风险

5

薪酬风险

7

股东权利风险

4

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2025-11-25

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-08-06

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-07-27

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

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