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KIMBERLY-CLARK CORP (KMB)

合理估值
Consumer DefensiveHousehold & Personal ProductsUnited States

基本面

59

价格

$94.91

市值

$32.27B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Kimberly-Clark makes disposable personal-care and tissue products — diapers (Huggies), feminine and adult care, paper towels and toilet paper (Kleenex, Scott) — sold mainly through supermarkets, mass retailers and pharmacies. Its North America business is the larger and more profitable half; a separate International Personal Care unit sells largely the same categories outside the US and Canada. It is also folding in Kenvue (Tylenol, Band-Aid, Listerine) through a pending acquisition, and moving its non-US tissue business into a joint venture with Brazil's Suzano.

盈利方式

Kimberly-Clark sells everyday disposable products that customers repurchase every few weeks, so revenue depends on volume and price/mix rather than one-time big-ticket sales. It negotiates directly with a small number of very large retailers — Walmart alone is about 16% of net sales — who control shelf space and can push back hard on price increases, especially when store-brand alternatives sit right next to Kimberly-Clark's products. Profitability rises and falls largely with the cost of pulp, resin and other raw materials relative to what retailers accept in price increases.

分部营收

North America65.85%

Personal care and tissue brands sold in the US and Canada, Kimberly-Clark's largest and most profitable market.

International Personal Care34.15%

Diapers, feminine and adult care products sold outside North America, largely in emerging markets.

护城河

品牌 · 狭窄

Huggies, Kleenex and Scott are recognized household names that let Kimberly-Clark charge more than unbranded alternatives and secure shelf space with retailers. But private-label products sit right next to them at lower prices in every category it competes in, and large retailers hold real bargaining power over listing and price, so the brand premium is real but limited rather than dominant.

需求驱动因素

防御型

Diapers, tissue and paper towels are bought regardless of the economic cycle, since consumers rarely cut back on basic hygiene products even in a downturn, which keeps volumes fairly stable. The bigger swing factor is the input-cost cycle — pulp, resin and energy prices — and retailers' willingness to accept the price increases needed to offset it, not end-consumer demand itself.

主要风险

  • Retailer bargaining power — A handful of very large retailers, led by Walmart, control the shelf space Kimberly-Clark depends on and can resist price increases or favor private-label alternatives.
  • Raw material cost volatility — Prices for pulp, resin, energy and other key inputs can rise sharply, and Kimberly-Clark may not be able to fully offset them through pricing without hurting volume.
  • Kenvue acquisition integration — The pending Kenvue acquisition will substantially increase debt and carries execution risk; the deal could also be delayed, face regulatory obstacles, or fail to deliver the expected synergies.
  • Private-label competition — Store-brand competitors, some with significantly lower development and manufacturing costs, offer comparable products at lower prices in nearly every category Kimberly-Clark serves.

客户集中度

主要客户占营收的16%

Walmart alone accounted for approximately 16% of net sales from continuing operations in 2025, concentrated mostly in the North America segment; losing shelf space or favorable terms with a retailer this size would be difficult to replace elsewhere.

看多理由

Buyers argue that Kleenex, Huggies and Scott are habitual purchases that hold their shelf position through economic cycles, that adding Kenvue's health-care brands diversifies the business beyond paper and diaper categories, and that shedding the lower-margin international tissue business into the Suzano joint venture should lift overall margins.

看空理由

Sellers worry that the Kenvue deal loads the balance sheet with new debt right as Kimberly-Clark still has to prove the acquisition's synergies, that a handful of retailers led by Walmart can squeeze pricing whenever input costs rise, and that private-label alternatives keep gaining share in categories where the brand premium is hardest to defend.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 21.7Score: 56Market cap: $346.41B

P&G goes head to head with Kimberly-Clark on supermarket shelves worldwide in disposable diapers (Pampers vs Huggies), feminine care (Always vs Kotex) and paper towels and toilet tissue (Bounty and Charmin vs Scott and Cottonelle).

Essity ABNot tracked

The Swedish hygiene group names Kimberly-Clark as a direct competitor in both personal care and tissue, and the two fight for the same customers in adult incontinence (TENA vs Depend) and in away-from-home washroom supplies sold to offices and hospitals (Tork vs Kimberly-Clark Professional).

Unicharm Corporation (ユニ・チャーム株式会社)Not tracked

Unicharm is the leading maker of baby diapers, feminine care and adult incontinence products across Japan, China and Southeast Asia, the same categories and the same fast-growing Asian consumers Kimberly-Clark targets with Huggies and Kotex.

Georgia-Pacific LLCNot tracked

Privately held by Koch Industries, Georgia-Pacific sells Angel Soft, Quilted Northern and Brawny in US supermarkets and Dixie and enMotion washroom systems to businesses, competing directly with Scott, Cottonelle and Kimberly-Clark Professional.

Ontex Group NVNot tracked

Ontex is one of the largest makers of private-label diapers, feminine pads and incontinence products for European and American retailers, the store-brand pressure Kimberly-Clark's 10-K singles out as a threat to its branded volumes.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$16.58B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$1.96B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$1.64B

股东权益合计

$1.50B

负债合计

$15.47B

流动比率

0.91

利息覆盖率

9.18

债务/EBITDA

2.06

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$102.73

当前价格

$94.91

安全边际

+7.6%

公允价值区间

$66.78 - $138.69

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$116.33
现金流折现法(DCF):$151.08
市盈率法(P/E):$67.30
格雷厄姆成长公式:$37.85
盈利能力价值(EPV):$74.48
合理市净率(P/B):$134.15
股息折现模型(戈登模型):$130.06
P/FFO(运营资金):$135.96
周期中段收益:$117.59
市销率法(P/S):$57.85
分析师共识:买入 (10B / 10H / 1S)
最近财报超预期:+4.20%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

16.04

ROE

134.6%

市净率(P/B)

17.93

P/FCF

17.24

毛利率

36.8%

ROIC

18.6%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

18.6%

WACC

7.2%

ROIC − WACC

+11.4 pp

ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(15)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • ROIC 18.6%
  • Gross Margin 36.8%
  • P/FCF 17.24
  • Operating Margin 14.3%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 122.6%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 2.9%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.70
  • Share Dilution -1.2%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

未通过(11)

  • EPS CAGR 2.23%
  • Price CAGR -1.54%
  • P/B Ratio 17.93
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • Revenue Growth 5Y -3.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 48% Buy
  • Net Margin Trend 11.8% vs 14.8%

不可用(2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-评分

5/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.70

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-1.2%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Michael D. HsuChairman & CEO61
Mr. Russell C. TorresPresident & COO53
Mr. Nelson UrdanetaSenior VP, CFO & Interim Principal Accounting Officer,53
Mr. Jeffrey P. Melucci J.D.Chief Strategy, Business Development & Administrative Officer54
Mr. Francesco TintoChief Information & Global Business Services Officer-
Mr. Christopher M. Jakubik C.F.A.Investor Relations Contact-
Ms. Suzana BladesSenior VP & General Counsel-
Ms. Preeti BinoyHead Corporate Communications & Government Affairs - India-
Ms. Stacey J. Valy PanayiotouChief Human Resources Officer52
Mr. Ehab Abou-OafChief Executive Officer of Arbex58

审计风险

3

董事会风险

5

薪酬风险

6

股东权利风险

4

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-12

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-08-04

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-10-01

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for KMB, sourced from Markets Gazette.

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