Li Auto Inc. (LI)
被低估基本面
29
价格
$11.28
市值
$11.51B
第一部分 · 这家公司值多少
概览
Li Auto designs, manufactures and sells premium electric family SUVs in China, mostly under its own brand through company-owned stores rather than independent dealers. Most of its models are extended-range electric vehicles: a small petrol engine charges the battery instead of powering the wheels directly, which removes the range anxiety of a pure battery car without the emissions of a conventional one. The company is now also expanding into fully battery-electric models.
盈利方式
Almost all revenue comes from selling vehicles outright to the end customer, recognized when the car is delivered to its owner; a small remainder comes from after-sales service, charging infrastructure, accessories and a paid membership programme. Because Li Auto owns its retail stores instead of using independent franchised dealers, it captures the full retail margin on every car sold, but also carries the fixed cost of that store network directly on its own books rather than passing it to a dealer.
分部营收
Revenue from delivering new vehicles to customers. Fell 23% in 2025 as intense price competition and the phase-out of purchase subsidies weighed on volumes and pricing.
After-sales service, charging stalls, accessories, the paid membership programme, and commissions — a small and steadier complement to vehicle sales.
护城河
未发现护城河 · 无Li Auto has a recognized brand among Chinese families and a distinctive extended-range design, but neither has stopped 2025 revenue from falling 23% and net income from collapsing under price competition. Chinese electric-vehicle makers compete mainly on price, technology refresh cycles and manufacturing cost, none of which is a durable advantage that protects margins once a rival matches the offer.
需求驱动因素
周期性Vehicle demand depends on consumer confidence, the availability of government purchase incentives, and how aggressively rivals are cutting prices at any given moment. In early 2026 the Chinese new-energy-vehicle market itself contracted year-on-year as subsidies were phased out and supply outran demand, illustrating how quickly the environment can turn against every player at once.
主要风险
- Intense price competition — The company faces aggressive rivals including BYD, Tesla and new entrants backed by Huawei and Xiaomi. Chinese regulators themselves describe the resulting price war as 'involutionary' competition that erodes margins industry-wide.
- Dependence on government subsidies — Reduction or elimination of purchase subsidies and tax incentives for new-energy vehicles has already contributed to weaker demand and could keep doing so, since the company does not control this lever.
- Regulatory limits on price competition — Authorities have tightened restrictions on cutthroat pricing tactics and supplier payment terms, which could limit the company's own ability to compete on price precisely when it might need to.
- Industry overcapacity and consolidation — The Chinese electric-vehicle industry is widely expected to consolidate around a handful of profitable manufacturers within a few years, implying that many current players, including possibly Li Auto, may not survive as independent companies.
看多理由
Buyers argue that Li Auto's direct-to-consumer retail model and extended-range technology have built real brand loyalty among Chinese families, that the expansion into pure battery-electric models diversifies away from a single powertrain approach, and that a shakeout in the industry could ultimately favour the stronger, better-capitalized survivors.
看空理由
Sellers fear that 2025's 23% revenue decline and collapse in profit show the price war is already doing real damage, that subsidy withdrawal removes a tailwind the whole industry relied on, and that larger, better-funded rivals can sustain a price war longer than Li Auto can.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
BYD is the largest new-energy vehicle maker in China and pushes its premium Denza and Yangwang brands, including the Denza N9, directly against Li Auto's multi-seat SUVs.
Xiaomi's car unit sells electric SUVs to the same connected-car buyers in China and, as Li Auto's own annual report notes, smartphone entrants like it have intensified competition in the premium NEV segment.
Tesla's China-built Model Y and Model X hold a leading position in the Chinese new-energy segment above RMB 200,000, the price band in which Li Auto sells nearly all of its vehicles.
Its Huawei-partnered AITO brand sells the M7 and M9 large extended-range and electric family SUVs, the models that compete head-on with Li Auto's L7, L9 and i9 for affluent Chinese households buying a six- or seven-seat premium SUV.
NIO sells premium battery-electric SUVs such as the ES8 to the same upper-income Chinese buyers Li Auto targets, at overlapping prices above RMB 400,000.
XPeng competes for the same Chinese buyers of technology-led electric SUVs and has moved into the large flagship SUV and extended-range segments where Li Auto's volumes are concentrated.
资产负债表与流动性
营收
$104.79B
最近12个月（截至2026/6/30）
净利润
$-4.61B
最近12个月（截至2026/6/30）
自由现金流
$-9.75B
股东权益合计
$7.97B
负债合计
$14.69B
流动比率
1.81
利息覆盖率
-
债务/EBITDA
-
每股收益
营收与净利润
自由现金流
收入构成
历史财务表
利润率变化
债务变化
债务负担有多重
增长一览表
增长 — 营业收入
公允价值估算
公允价值
$15.63
当前价格
$11.28
安全边际
+27.9%
公允价值区间
$14.85 - $16.41
所用估值方法之间的离散区间，并非经过统计校准的置信区间。
估算方法
估值指标
市盈率（P/E）
-
ROE
-6.6%
市净率（P/B）
1.19
P/FCF
-
毛利率
13.6%
ROIC
-31.1%
盈利能力雷达图
价值创造（经济护城河）
ROIC
-31.1%
WACC
9.9%
ROIC − WACC
-41.0 pp
ROIC 低于资本成本：公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。
基本面分析标准
通过（4）
- P/B Ratio 1.19
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Current Ratio
- Revenue Growth 5Y 64.0%
未通过（11）
- Price CAGR -13.96%
- ROIC -31.1%
- Gross Margin 13.6%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- ROE -6.6%
- Analyst Consensus 47% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg -98.1%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) -8.85
- Net Margin Trend 1.0% vs 5.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 0/9
不可用（12）
- EPS data insufficient
- P/FCF NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Operating Margin NaN%
- CapEx intensity
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-评分
存在严重财务隐患
盈利质量
低质量：需深入审查会计处理
股权稀释
正在回购股份，对股东友好
机构持股
公司治理
管理团队
| 姓名 | 职位 | 年龄 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Xiang Li | Founder, Executive Chairman & CEO | 44 |
| Mr. Donghui Ma | President & Executive Director | 50 |
| Mr. Tie Li | CFO & Executive Director | 47 |
| Mr. Yan Xie | Senior VP & CTO | 46 |
| Janet Chang | Director of Investor Relations | - |
| Kobe Wang | Head of Capital Markets | - |
| Mr. Liangjun Zou | Senior Vice President | 47 |
| Mr. Yang Wang | Joint Company Secretary | - |
| Ms. Yee Wa Lau | Joint Company Secretary | 52 |
第二部分 · 价格与买入时机
这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有：它帮助你在基本面说服你之后，选择何时买入。包含：技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。
Latest News
Recent headlines for LI, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 5/21/2026POSITIVETesla Rival Li Auto's Stock Remains Underpriced As Value Score Rises— Morgan Stanley Sees 61% Upside Potential
Morgan Stanley has identified Li Auto (LI) as an underpriced stock with significant upside potential, projecting a 61% increase. This assessment is driven by a rising value score for the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, a direct competitor to Tesla. The firm's positive outlook suggests that despite current market valuations, Li Auto's fundamentals and growth prospects are not fully reflected in its stock price. Investors may find this an opportune moment to consider Li Auto, given the analyst's strong conviction in its future performance.
- 5/17/2026NEUTRALWeekend Round-Up: Li Auto's New SUV, Chinese Automakers Eye Europe, Waymo's Robotaxi Recall And Trump's Stance On Chinese EVs
Li Auto has launched its new Li L7 SUV, a significant move in the competitive EV market. Concurrently, Chinese automakers are reportedly eyeing expansion into Europe, signaling global ambitions. However, Waymo is facing a robotaxi recall, and former President Trump has expressed concerns regarding Chinese EVs. This mixed news presents a complex outlook for the automotive sector, with individual company performances potentially diverging based on strategic execution and geopolitical factors.
- 4/1/2026POSITIVELi Auto Shares Rally As March Deliveries Hit 41,053 Units
Li Auto Inc. (LI) experienced a significant share price increase following the announcement of robust March delivery figures, reaching 41,053 units. This strong performance in the first quarter of 2026 positions the company favorably against competitors like NIO and XPeng within the fiercely competitive Chinese electric vehicle market. The sustained delivery momentum suggests growing consumer demand for Li Auto's offerings and effective market penetration strategies. Investors are likely to view these results as a positive indicator of the company's operational efficiency and future growth prospects, potentially leading to upward price target adjustments.
- 3/11/2026POSITIVELi Auto Ramps Up i6 Production After Supply Chain Issues Ahead Of Q4 Earnings
Li Auto Inc. has reportedly accelerated production of its pure-electric i6 SUV, signaling a resolution to prior supply chain disruptions. This ramp-up comes just ahead of the company's fourth-quarter earnings call scheduled for Thursday. Investors will be closely watching the earnings report for further insights into the company's operational performance and future outlook, particularly concerning the i6 model's market reception and contribution to revenue. The successful resolution of supply chain issues and increased production capacity are positive indicators for the company's ability to meet demand and potentially exceed earnings expectations.
via Markets Gazette