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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

合理估值
Consumer CyclicalAuto ManufacturersUnited States

基本面

49

价格

$355.98

市值

$1.49T

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Tesla designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles directly to buyers, without a franchised dealer network, and builds its own battery cells at vertically integrated factories in the US, China and Germany. Alongside cars it sells energy-storage batteries and solar equipment to homes and utilities, and is pushing into new, unproven lines: paid driving-assistance software, a robotaxi service, and Optimus, a humanoid robot still in early development.

盈利方式

Tesla earns most of its money selling vehicles outright, recognizing revenue on delivery rather than through a dealer network, which keeps a larger slice of the sale price but pushes service, financing and inventory risk onto the company itself. It also sells high-margin regulatory emissions credits to other automakers who need them to meet clean-air rules. A growing services line covers Supercharging, insurance and paid driving-assistance software subscriptions.

分部营收

Automotive73.32%

Sales and leases of electric vehicles, plus automotive regulatory credits sold to other manufacturers.

Energy Generation and Storage13.47%

Megapack and Powerwall battery systems sold to utilities and homeowners, plus solar panels and roofing.

Services and Other13.21%

Used-car sales, paid Supercharging, non-warranty maintenance, insurance and parts and merchandise sales.

护城河

成本优势 · 狭窄

Tesla builds its own battery cells and runs vertically integrated Gigafactories, which has kept its unit production costs below most legacy automakers and funded the largest fast-charging network in North America. But Chinese manufacturers such as BYD have matched or undercut Tesla's costs, so the advantage is narrowing rather than widening as competition intensifies.

需求驱动因素

周期性

Vehicle purchases are large, discretionary, and sensitive to interest rates, financing costs and government incentives, all of which can shift abruptly with policy changes. Demand has swung sharply in several markets as EV tax credits and subsidies were reduced or removed, showing how much of Tesla's volume depends on conditions outside its control.

主要风险

  • Intensifying EV competition — Chinese manufacturers and legacy automakers are launching competitive electric vehicles at lower prices, eroding the cost and technology lead Tesla built in its early years.
  • Supplier and manufacturing dependence — Tesla relies on suppliers, including single-source ones, for critical components; a shortage or disruption at any of them can directly delay production and deliveries.
  • Dependence on Elon Musk — Tesla's strategy, product direction and public profile are closely tied to Elon Musk, who also runs several other companies; his divided attention or departure would be a material loss for Tesla.
  • Unproven new product lines — Robotaxi services, full self-driving software and the Optimus robot are still in early, nascent stages, face significant technical and regulatory hurdles, and compete against well-funded rivals.

看多理由

Buyers argue that Tesla's lead in vertical integration and self-driving software will eventually translate into higher-margin businesses such as robotaxis and robots, and that its Supercharger network and brand keep customers loyal even as EV competition grows.

看空理由

Sellers fear that Chinese and legacy competitors are closing the EV cost gap faster than the new robotaxi and robot businesses can generate revenue, and that much of the company's valuation rests on projects that remain unproven.

分部数据来自2025财年信息来源: Tesla, Inc. — Form 10-K, fiscal year 2025

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$103.62B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$3.80B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$6.22B

股东权益合计

$82.14B

负债合计

$54.94B

流动比率

1.94

利息覆盖率

13.09

债务/EBITDA

1.50

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

周期性合理估值

公允价值

$396.62

当前价格

$355.98

安全边际

+10.2%

公允价值区间

$376.79 - $416.45

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$396.62
现金流折现法(DCF):不适用于此类公司
市盈率法(P/E):数据不足,无法计算
格雷厄姆成长公式:不适用于此类公司
盈利能力价值(EPV):$6.91
合理市净率(P/B):不适用于此类公司
股息折现模型(戈登模型):不适用于此类公司
P/FFO(运营资金):不适用于此类公司
周期中段收益:数据不足,无法计算
市销率法(P/S):不适用于此类公司
分析师共识:买入 (30B / 25H / 6S)
最近财报超预期:-36.43%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

328.53

ROE

4.6%

市净率(P/B)

16.13

P/FCF

243.20

毛利率

18.9%

ROIC

3.0%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

3.0%

WACC

14.0%

ROIC − WACC

-10.9 pp

ROIC 低于资本成本:公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(13)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 38.88%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 24.6%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 4.91
  • Share Dilution 1.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

未通过(13)

  • ROIC 3.1%
  • Gross Margin 18.9%
  • P/FCF 243.20
  • P/B Ratio 16.13
  • Operating Margin 4.2%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • ROE 4.6%
  • Analyst Consensus 49% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg -7.0%
  • PEG Ratio 10.29
  • Net Margin Trend 3.7% vs 6.3%

不可用(1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-评分

5/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

4.91

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

1.1%

股份数量稳定

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Elon R. MuskCo-Founder, Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director54
Mr. Vaibhav TanejaChief Financial Officer47
Mr. Xiaotong ZhuSenior Vice President of APAC & Global Vehicle Manufacturing45
Travis AxelrodHead of Investor Relations-
Mr. Brandon EhrhartGeneral Counsel & Corporate Secretary-
Mr. Franz von HolzhausenChief Designer-
Ms. Roxanne Inskip-KayeHead of Operations - Electric Vehicle Business-
Mr. John WalkerVice President of Sales - North America62
Mr. Rodney D. Westmoreland Jr.Director of Construction Management-
Mr. Lars MoravyVice President of Vehicle Engineering-

审计风险

4

董事会风险

10

薪酬风险

10

股东权利风险

9

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-01-29

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-07-23

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-09-29

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for TSLA, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6h agoNEGATIVE
    Tesla’s delivery report is just around the corner. Expect a sales drop.

    Tesla's upcoming delivery report is anticipated to reveal a sales drop, reflecting waning investor interest in the company's EV business. While the exact figures are yet to be released, the expectation of a decline suggests potential headwinds for the electric vehicle giant. This news could impact investor sentiment and lead to a reassessment of Tesla's valuation, especially if the drop is more significant than currently priced in by the market. Investors will be closely watching for any commentary on future production and demand drivers.

  • 2d agoNEUTRAL
    Tesla Lines Up $30 Billion to Borrow With Spending on Rise

    Tesla Inc. has secured $30 billion in new loans and credit facilities, signaling an increased capital expenditure strategy. The funds are earmarked for significant investments in artificial intelligence and robotics initiatives, suggesting a pivot or expansion beyond its core electric vehicle manufacturing. While securing substantial financing can be seen as a positive step for growth, the increased borrowing and investment focus may also introduce higher financial leverage and execution risk. Investors will be watching closely to see if these AI and robotics ventures can deliver future returns commensurate with the capital deployed.

  • 3d agoNEUTRAL
    Azioni Tesla: perché il prossimo report sulle consegne potrebbe contare poco

    Tesla is set for a pivotal week with the unveiling of its next-generation Roadster and its Q3 delivery report. Despite the historical significance of delivery numbers, Wall Street's focus has shifted to high-margin technological catalysts, including the Roadster, robotaxi network, and Physical AI initiatives. While the stock dipped 3% on Monday ahead of the delivery report, it has recovered approximately 20% from its year-to-date low. This suggests that while delivery figures are a factor, future growth drivers are currently taking precedence in market sentiment.

  • 3d agoNEGATIVE
    Previsioni su Tesla: principali catalizzatori per le azioni TSLA questa settimana

    Tesla shares have experienced recent downward pressure, trading at $372 after a peak of $384 last week, amid investor concerns about its business operations. Key catalysts this week include the release of Q3 delivery data, which is crucial for assessing the company's performance. Expectations are for a decline in Q3 deliveries compared to the previous quarter. Goldman Sachs notably reduced its delivery target from 490,000 to 435,000 units, signaling potential headwinds. Investors will scrutinize these figures for insights into Tesla's growth trajectory and operational efficiency.

  • 6d agoNEGATIVE
    Tesla’s stock falls as launch of Semi truck fails to excite investors

    Tesla's stock experienced a decline following the launch of its Semi truck, as investors expressed a lack of enthusiasm. While the potential for autonomous trucking is recognized as a significant market opportunity, the company's initial targets and production ramp-up plans for the Semi remain unclear. This ambiguity has led to investor caution, overshadowing the technological advancements. The market is seeking concrete details on volume, delivery timelines, and profitability projections to assess the Semi's true impact on Tesla's valuation.

  • 7d agoNEUTRAL
    As diesel prices surge, Tesla makes its big play for the trucking market

    Tesla is reintroducing its heavy-duty, all-electric truck amidst a surge in diesel prices, a strategic move to capture market share in the trucking industry. However, the article suggests this initiative might not be sufficient to significantly boost investor sentiment for Tesla. The timing is opportune given rising fuel costs, which typically favor alternative energy solutions. Investors will be watching closely to see if the electric truck can compete effectively on cost and performance against traditional diesel counterparts and if it can translate into substantial revenue growth for Tesla.

  • 10d agoNEUTRAL
    Elon Musk, Jensen Huang and Tim Cook are set to dine this week with Xi. Here’s what their companies want from China.

    Elon Musk of Tesla is scheduled to dine with Xi Jinping this week, alongside leaders from Nvidia and Citi. Tesla's significant operations in China, particularly its Shanghai factory, highlight the company's deep reliance on the Chinese market. While the meeting is framed as a high-level discussion, the specific outcomes for Tesla and its peers remain uncertain. Investors will be monitoring any potential policy shifts or market access developments that could impact Tesla's substantial investments and sales within China.

via Markets Gazette