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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)

被低估
HealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralUnited States

基本面

69

价格

$1157.08

市值

$1.05T

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Eli Lilly discovers, develops and sells prescription medicines, concentrating on diabetes and obesity, oncology, immunology and neuroscience. Its current growth is dominated by tirzepatide, the molecule sold as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss, which together now account for more than half of company revenue. Drugs reach patients through wholesalers, pharmacies and, increasingly, direct-to-consumer channels for the weight-loss franchise.

盈利方式

Revenue comes almost entirely from selling patented medicines at prices that reflect years of research and clinical-trial spending rather than manufacturing cost. A drug protected by patent can be priced with little direct competition; once patents expire, generic or biosimilar versions typically cut that product's sales sharply within a few years, which is why the pipeline behind today's bestsellers matters as much as the bestsellers themselves.

分部营收

Mounjaro35.2%

Tirzepatide sold for type 2 diabetes, the single largest product and the fastest-growing major one in 2025.

All other products35.2%

The rest of the portfolio across diabetes, oncology, immunology and neuroscience, none individually broken out in the annual results.

Zepbound20.8%

The same molecule, tirzepatide, sold for chronic weight management — a newer indication already generating more than a fifth of total revenue.

Verzenio8.8%

A breast-cancer treatment and the largest product outside the tirzepatide franchise.

护城河

专利与许可 · 宽阔

Patents on approved molecules give Lilly years of protection from direct competition, and the regulatory approval process itself is a barrier few companies can clear. The tirzepatide franchise adds a manufacturing edge too: building the capacity to produce injectable GLP-1 drugs at this scale takes years, which is currently limiting how fast even a well-funded rival like Novo Nordisk can respond.

需求驱动因素

防御型

Most of the portfolio treats chronic conditions — diabetes, cancer, autoimmune disease — that patients keep treating regardless of the economic cycle. The newer weight-loss business is more exposed to household budgets since much of it is paid out of pocket or with limited insurance coverage, but it still sits on top of an otherwise defensive base.

主要风险

  • Patent expiration and biosimilar competition — The company identifies the loss of intellectual-property protection on key products, and the entry of generic or biosimilar competitors once patents expire, as a risk to future revenue.
  • Government and payer pricing pressure — Continued pricing pressure from governmental and private payers, including Medicare drug-price negotiation under U.S. law, affects pricing, reimbursement and patient access to Lilly's medicines.
  • Concentration in a few products — The company depends on a relatively small number of products and a consolidated supply chain for a significant share of total revenue, so a manufacturing, safety or competitive setback for any one of them has an outsized effect.

看多理由

Buyers argue that the tirzepatide franchise still has years of volume growth ahead as obesity treatment expands globally, that manufacturing scale-up gives Lilly a lead over Novo Nordisk that is hard to close quickly, and that a broad pipeline beyond GLP-1 drugs reduces the company's dependence on any single therapeutic area.

看空理由

Sellers fear that more than half of revenue now rests on one molecule facing well-capitalized competition and looming price cuts from Novo Nordisk, that government price negotiation will keep compressing margins on older products, and that a business this concentrated in a handful of drugs is unusually exposed to a single clinical, manufacturing or pricing setback.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$79.67B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$26.71B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

-

股东权益合计

$26.54B

负债合计

$85.94B

流动比率

1.35

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

1.32

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形被低估

公允价值

$1545.05

当前价格

$1157.08

安全边际

+25.1%

公允价值区间

$1028.96 - $2061.14

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$1325.39
现金流折现法(DCF):$2210.31
市盈率法(P/E):$775.61
格雷厄姆成长公式:$1521.23
盈利能力价值(EPV):$371.65
合理市净率(P/B):$621.95
股息折现模型(戈登模型):$147.95
P/FFO(运营资金):$384.76
周期中段收益:数据不足,无法计算
市销率法(P/S):$349.86
分析师共识:强力买入 (30B / 7H / 1S)
最近财报超预期:+38.14%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

38.59

ROE

77.8%

市净率(P/B)

31.95

P/FCF

-

毛利率

83.4%

ROIC

-

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

-

WACC

7.7%

ROIC − WACC

-

基本面分析标准

通过(16)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 31.66%
  • Gross Margin 83.4%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 92.6%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 21.6%
  • Analyst Consensus 79% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 24.8%
  • PEG Ratio 1.51
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.05
  • Share Dilution -0.6%
  • Net Margin Trend 33.5% vs 25.9%
  • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

未通过(4)

  • P/B Ratio 31.95
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)

不可用(7)

  • ROIC NaN%
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-评分

8/9

财务状况强健

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.05

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-0.6%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. David A. RicksChairman, President & CEO57
Mr. Lucas E. MontarceExecutive VP & CFO48
Dr. Daniel M. Skovronsky M.D., Ph.D.Chief Scientific & Product Officer and President of Lilly Research Laboratories52
Ms. Anat Hakim J.D.Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary56
Mr. Jacob S. Van NaardenExecutive VP, President of Lilly Oncology & Head of Corporate Business Development40
Mr. Donald A. ZakrowskiSenior VP of Finance & Chief Accounting Officer-
Mr. Diogo RauExecutive VP and Chief Information & Digital Officer50
Mr. Michael CzaparSenior Vice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. Eric DozierExecutive VP & Chief People Officer58
Mr. Ilya YuffaExecutive VP and President of Lilly USA & Global Customer Capabilities50

审计风险

8

董事会风险

5

薪酬风险

5

股东权利风险

9

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-12

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-08-05

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-08-05

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for LLY, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 2d agoNEUTRAL
    Adding Lilly’s new drug to Zepbound helped people lose more weight — but there were more side effects

    Eli Lilly's experimental amylin drug, when added to Zepbound, demonstrated increased weight loss in trials. However, this combination also led to a higher incidence of side effects. The company is exploring this drug's potential for both weight management and diabetes treatment. While the enhanced weight loss is a positive development, the increased side effect profile introduces a note of caution for investors. The net effect on the stock will likely depend on the severity and manageability of these side effects versus the efficacy gains.

  • 14d agoPOSITIVE
    Lilly’s Newest Bull Says Near 300% Rally Is Only the Beginning

    Eli Lilly and Company has experienced a remarkable surge of approximately 300% in its stock value over the past four years, following the approval of its first GLP-1 drug. This impressive performance has propelled the company's market capitalization beyond $1 trillion, establishing it as the preeminent pharmaceutical firm globally. The sustained growth trajectory, driven by its innovative GLP-1 treatments, suggests continued strong investor confidence and potential for further expansion in the lucrative obesity and diabetes markets. Analysts remain bullish, anticipating that this rally is far from over, indicating a robust outlook for the company.

  • 9/2/2026POSITIVE
    Lilly to Buy Merida for $2.88B in Autoimmune Push

    Eli Lilly and Company has announced plans to acquire Merida Biosciences Inc. for up to $2.88 billion in cash. This strategic move aims to bolster Lilly's presence in the autoimmune and allergic diseases sector, diversifying its portfolio beyond its current dominance in weight-loss and diabetes treatments. The acquisition underscores Lilly's commitment to expanding its therapeutic reach and leveraging its financial strength to secure growth opportunities in promising medical fields. Investors may view this as a positive step towards sustained long-term growth and market leadership.

  • 8/31/2026POSITIVE
    Lilly to Buy Merida for $2.88 Billion in Autoimmune Push

    Eli Lilly and Company is set to acquire Merida Biosciences Inc. for up to $2.88 billion in cash, signaling a strategic expansion into autoimmune and allergic diseases. This move diversifies Lilly's portfolio beyond its highly successful weight-loss and diabetes drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro. The acquisition is part of Lilly's aggressive deal-making strategy, with over $20 billion invested in 2026 alone, aimed at bolstering its pipeline with early-stage medicines to secure future blockbuster treatments. Investors may view this as a positive step towards sustained long-term growth and innovation.

  • 8/12/2026NEGATIVE
    Eli Lilly is suing pharmacies and peptide vendors over early sales of the next big weight-loss drug: retatrutide

    Eli Lilly and Company has initiated legal action against pharmacies and peptide vendors accused of prematurely selling compounded versions of its upcoming weight-loss drug, retatrutide. This move aims to protect the integrity of its intellectual property and ensure the drug's eventual regulated release. The lawsuit highlights the intense market anticipation for retatrutide, a drug poised to be a significant player in the lucrative obesity treatment market. For investors, while the legal action may create short-term noise, it underscores Lilly's commitment to safeguarding its pipeline and maximizing the commercial potential of its innovative therapies.

  • 8/11/2026POSITIVE
    Eli Lilly Surges, Novo Nordisk Slips in Weight-Loss War

    Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) has reported a significant 48% surge in second-quarter revenue, reaching US$23 billion, driven by its blockbuster GLP-1 weight-loss and diabetes treatments. Sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound combined accounted for nearly 65% of total revenue, with Mounjaro alone seeing a 91% jump. The company has consequently raised its full-year revenue forecast to US$85-87 billion. This strong performance, coupled with a 7% stock increase in early trading, highlights Lilly's robust market position and growth potential in the highly competitive weight-loss drug sector, outperforming rivals like Novo Nordisk.

  • 8/5/2026POSITIVE
    Lilly’s revenue soars 48%, driven by demand for its GLP-1s

    Eli Lilly and Company reported a remarkable 48% surge in revenue, significantly exceeding expectations. This growth was primarily fueled by robust demand for its GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, which are indicated for Type 2 diabetes and weight loss respectively. The strong performance underscores the increasing market penetration and therapeutic success of Lilly's innovative treatments in high-demand areas. Investors will likely view this as a strong indicator of sustained future earnings growth and market leadership for the pharmaceutical giant.

via Markets Gazette