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Marqeta, Inc. (MQ)

被高估
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureUnited States

基本面

59

价格

$16.96

市值

$1.79B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Marqeta is a US technology company that lets other businesses issue their own payment cards. It runs a cloud-based, open-API platform for card issuing and transaction processing: a client — a fintech app, a bank, a lender, a company that pays its couriers or manages employee expenses — uses Marqeta's software to create physical cards, virtual cards and tokens that live in Apple Pay or Google Pay, to decide in real time whether each transaction is authorised, and to move the money. Marqeta does not hold the banking licence itself; the cards are issued by partner banks (Sutton Bank among them) and run on the Visa, Mastercard and Discover networks, with Marqeta sitting in the middle as the processor and, for some clients, as the program manager that handles disputes, chargebacks, reconciliation and card fulfilment. In fiscal 2025 the platform processed $382.5 billion of payment volume, up 31% year over year, generating $624.9 million of net revenue.

盈利方式

Revenue comes from three sources. First, interchange fees: when a card issued on the platform is used, the merchant's side of the transaction pays an interchange fee, and under Marqeta's agreements the issuing bank passes 100% of that fee to Marqeta, which then pays a large share of it back to the client as 'revenue share'. What Marqeta keeps is net revenue, which is why the reported revenue line is far smaller than the volume flowing through the platform. Second, processing fees charged to clients for access to the platform and for each transaction handled. Third, other services revenue — program management, tokenisation, fraud tools, digital banking and money-movement features. The economics therefore scale with payment volume rather than with the number of clients, and the split between the three lines shifts with mix: the company noted in 2025 that growth was partly offset by an unfavourable mix, because the fastest-growing programs are ones where Marqeta only provides processing with little or no program management, which carries a smaller revenue take per dollar of volume. Gross margin was 70% in 2025, and the company reported a $13.9 million net loss for the year.

护城河

转换成本 · 狭窄

Marqeta's advantage, such as it is, rests on switching costs rather than on brand or scale. A card program is built directly into the client's product through Marqeta's APIs, tied to a specific issuing bank relationship and to certification with the card networks; moving it elsewhere means re-engineering the product, re-issuing cards to end users and re-certifying, which is slow and visible to customers. Multi-year contracts reinforce this — the Block agreements run to June 2028. The limits are real, though, and the company itself flags them: it describes its markets as competitive and continuously evolving, it depends on issuing banks and card networks it does not control, and its 2025 mix shift toward processing-only programs shows that clients can and do bring the higher-value parts of the stack in-house. The filing makes no claim to a durable competitive advantage, and the company has a history of net losses with an accumulated deficit of roughly $811.8 million.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Marqeta's revenue tracks the dollar volume spent on the cards its clients issue, so it follows consumer and business spending rather than any order book. Card spending as a whole is fairly resilient — people keep buying groceries and paying bills in a downturn — but Marqeta's volume is not the average card: it is weighted toward fintech wallets, buy-now-pay-later, on-demand delivery, expense management and lending programs, all of which are more discretionary and more sensitive to credit conditions than a mainstream bank debit card. Volume also depends on how fast its clients themselves grow, which adds a second, non-macro source of swing. The company itself warns that results fluctuate significantly quarter to quarter. Treat it as spending-linked with above-average sensitivity, not as a defensive business.

主要风险

  • A single customer accounts for almost half of net revenue — Block — through the Cash App and Square Debit Card programs — represented 45% of net revenue in 2025, down from 47% in 2024 and 68% in 2023. The company states that this concentration exposes it disproportionately to any of those customers choosing to stop using its platform. The Block contracts run through June 2028.
  • Past growth may not continue — The company states it has experienced rapid growth and that its past growth rates may not be indicative of future growth rates, and that managing that growth places demands on its organisation.
  • Winning and keeping customers cost-effectively — Future net revenue growth depends on the ability to attract new customers and retain existing ones in a cost-effective manner; the company names this as a risk in its own terms.
  • Competitive and fast-changing markets — The company participates in markets that are competitive and continuously evolving, and states that if it does not compete successfully its business may be adversely affected.
  • History of net losses — The company discloses a history of net losses and states it may not be able to achieve or sustain profitability, with an accumulated deficit of approximately $811.8 million. It reported a net loss of $13.9 million for 2025.
  • Results swing from quarter to quarter — The company states that its results fluctuate significantly and may not fully reflect the underlying performance of the business, making it difficult to accurately forecast future results.
  • Dependence on issuing banks and card networks — The company relies on its relationships with issuing banks and card networks and states that, if it is unable to maintain these relationships, its business may be adversely affected. Marqeta is not itself the card issuer.
  • Regulation and its uncertain interpretation — The business is subject to regulation and oversight in a variety of areas; the company notes those regulations are subject to change and to uncertain interpretation.
  • Credit platform performance — The company states that if its credit platform or other credit programs are inaccurate or do not perform as intended, its business may be adversely affected.
  • Financial controls and reporting — The company states that failing to maintain an effective system of disclosure controls and internal control over financial reporting could impair its ability to report timely and accurate financial results.

客户集中度

主要客户占营收的45%

Block, through the Cash App and Square Debit Card programs, accounted for 45% of net revenue in fiscal 2025, against 47% in 2024 and 68% in 2023. The trend is clearly downward as other programs scale, but a single relationship still supplies close to half the revenue line, and the company names this as a risk in its own filing. The current Block contracts run through June 2028. The filing does not disclose a combined figure for the next-largest customers beyond Block.

看多理由

Buyers argue that Marqeta is the infrastructure layer underneath a category that keeps growing: processing volume rose 31% in 2025 to $382.5 billion and net revenue 23% to $624.9 million, while gross margin held at 70% and adjusted EBITDA improved by roughly $80 million year over year to $109.6 million — evidence, in their reading, that the model scales without a matching increase in cost. They point to the fall in Block's share of revenue from 68% in 2023 to 45% in 2025 as proof that the customer base is genuinely broadening rather than standing still, and to the switching costs of an embedded card program as a reason clients stay once integrated. They also argue that the addressable use cases — embedded finance, expense management, wage access, point-of-sale lending — are still early in shifting off legacy bank processors.

看空理由

Sellers fear that the business is a thin margin on somebody else's payment flow. Marqeta collects interchange and hands most of it back to the customer as revenue share, so net revenue is a small slice of the $382.5 billion it processes, and the 2025 mix shift — faster growth in programs where it supplies processing only, with little or no program management — points to that slice getting thinner as the book matures. They note that 45% of revenue still rests on Block under contracts expiring in June 2028, so a single renegotiation can reset the economics; the company's own risk factors say concentration exposes it disproportionately. They also point to the return to a net loss in 2025 after a year of net income, to the accumulated deficit of roughly $811.8 million, to competition from bank processors and from clients bringing issuing in-house, and to the fact that Marqeta does not own the banking licence or the networks it depends on.

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 8.7Score: 65Market cap: $24.47B

Marqeta names Fiserv among the legacy technology platforms: it processes card programs for banks and large issuers, the same budget Marqeta is trying to win with a more modern platform.

P/E: 5.1Score: 66Market cap: $17.69B

Another legacy provider named in Marqeta's 10-K, FIS runs card issuing and payment processing for banks and fintech programs and competes for the same multi-year processing contracts.

Galileo Financial Technologies, LLC (subsidiary of SoFi Technologies, Inc.)Not tracked

Named by Marqeta in its 10-K as a modern API-based provider, Galileo sells the same thing to the same buyers: an API platform that lets fintechs and neobanks issue debit, prepaid and credit cards and process the transactions.

i2c Inc.Not tracked

Also named in Marqeta's 10-K, i2c is a privately held card issuing and processing platform that bids for the same card programs of fintechs, banks and large corporates worldwide.

Stripe, Inc.Not tracked

Marqeta lists Stripe among the emerging providers: through Stripe Issuing it offers card creation and controls to the same developer-first companies, bundled with the payments stack they already use.

Adyen N.V.ADYEN

Cited by Marqeta as an emerging competitor, the Dutch group has extended its payments platform to card issuing and courts the same marketplaces and platforms that need cards in Europe and the United States.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$677M

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$10M

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$161M

股东权益合计

$762M

负债合计

$763M

流动比率

1.66

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

-

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形被高估

公允价值

$11.78

当前价格

$16.96

安全边际

-44.0%

公允价值区间

$7.66 - $15.90

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$20.50
现金流折现法(DCF):数据不足,无法计算
市盈率法(P/E):$3.59
格雷厄姆成长公式:$1.47
盈利能力价值(EPV):数据不足,无法计算
合理市净率(P/B):数据不足,无法计算
股息折现模型(戈登模型):数据不足,无法计算
P/FFO(运营资金):-
周期中段收益:数据不足,无法计算
市销率法(P/S):$32.37
分析师共识:买入 (9B / 12H / 1S)
最近财报超预期:+960.61%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

188.83

ROE

-1.8%

市净率(P/B)

-

P/FCF

-

毛利率

70.0%

ROIC

-1.4%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

-1.4%

WACC

10.3%

ROIC − WACC

-11.7 pp

ROIC 低于资本成本:公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(12)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Gross Margin 70.0%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 16.6%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 412.2%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 19.25
  • Share Dilution -14.9%
  • Net Margin Trend 1.5% vs -11.7%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

未通过(8)

  • Price CAGR -25.19%
  • ROIC -1.4%
  • Operating Margin -1.9%
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • ROE 1.4%
  • Analyst Consensus 41% Buy

不可用(7)

  • P/FCF NaN
  • P/B Ratio NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-评分

5/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

19.25

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-14.9%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

该公司暂无机构申报数据。

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Michael MilotichCEO & Director48
Mr. Jason M. GardnerFounder & Non Executive Director55
Ms. Crystal Sumner J.D.Chief Administrative Officer & Corporate Secretary41
Mr. Todd PollakChief Revenue Officer49
Ms. Patti KangwankijCFO & Principal Accounting Officer41
Mr. Lukasz StrozekChief Technology Officer-
Ms. Stacey FinermanVice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. Alan Richard CarlisleChief Compliance Officer51
Ms. Karna CrawfordChief Marketing Officer-
Ms. Helena Day ChristiansonChief People Officer-

审计风险

1

董事会风险

5

薪酬风险

10

股东权利风险

10

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-24

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-08-04

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-08-25

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for MQ, sourced from Markets Gazette.

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