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Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX)

合理估值
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureUnited States

基本面

67

价格

$70.67

市值

$18.56B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Nutanix sells software that lets a company run its own private cloud on standard servers instead of renting capacity from Amazon, Microsoft or Google, or instead of buying expensive specialized storage hardware. The software pools compute, storage and virtualization into a single system that IT staff can manage from one console. It does not make the servers itself: customers buy the hardware from partners like Dell, Lenovo or HPE and install Nutanix's software on top of it.

盈利方式

Nutanix sells software licenses and support as term subscriptions rather than one-time purchases, typically for three or five years, most of it recognized upfront when the contract starts with the remainder recognized ratably as support and services are delivered over the term. Most sales go through the same server makers and distributors whose hardware runs Nutanix's software, and through IT resellers, rather than direct to end customers, so its growth depends heavily on how well those partners choose to sell it.

分部营收

Support, Entitlements and Other Services52.1%

Technical support, software updates and other services revenue, recognized gradually over the life of the subscription rather than upfront.

Product Revenue47.9%

Upfront software license fees recognized when a multi-year subscription contract begins, covering the core Nutanix Cloud Platform software.

护城河

转换成本 · 狭窄

Once a company's virtual machines, storage and data run on Nutanix's platform, migrating away means re-architecting how servers are provisioned and risking downtime — the same friction that has driven customers away from VMware since Broadcom raised its prices. That friction protects Nutanix's installed base, but it is not unique: Nutanix itself is winning share by exploiting exactly this dynamic against a larger incumbent.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Demand depends on corporate IT budgets for data-center and private-cloud infrastructure, which slow when companies cut capital spending, but a large share of revenue comes from renewing multi-year subscriptions already in place rather than winning entirely new business each quarter. The bigger swing factor recently has been customers leaving VMware after Broadcom's price increases, a one-time tailwind rather than a recurring driver.

主要风险

  • Reliance on channel distributors and OEM hardware partners — Most sales go through distributors and hardware partners like Dell and Lenovo rather than direct to customers, and Nutanix's software depends on those partners' hardware being available and willing to bundle it.
  • A one-time competitive tailwind may fade — Recent growth has been boosted by customers leaving VMware over Broadcom's pricing changes; once that migration wave runs its course, Nutanix must generate growth from new demand rather than a rival's mistake.
  • Corporate IT spending cycles — New infrastructure purchases slow when companies cut capital budgets, and a large upfront-license component of revenue makes results more sensitive to the timing of big deals than a purely ratable subscription model would be.
  • Competition from public cloud and hyperconverged rivals — Customers can choose to move workloads to a public cloud provider instead of running private infrastructure at all, and rivals including VMware, Microsoft and smaller hyperconverged vendors compete for the same budgets.

客户集中度

Nutanix sells mostly through a small number of large distributors rather than directly; in prior fiscal years its two largest distributors together represented close to half of revenue, though the company has not disclosed an updated figure for fiscal 2025.

看多理由

Buyers argue that the exodus from VMware after Broadcom's price increases gives Nutanix years of migration business still to capture, that its subscription model builds a growing base of recurring renewal revenue, and that private and hybrid cloud remain a durable alternative to renting everything from a public cloud provider.

看空理由

Sellers fear that the VMware migration tailwind is temporary and growth slows once it fades, that heavy reliance on distributors and hardware partners limits Nutanix's control over its own sales motion, and that public cloud providers keep pulling workloads away from private infrastructure altogether.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 44.8Score: 75Market cap: $1.67T

Broadcom's VMware Cloud Foundation is the incumbent virtualization and private-cloud stack that Nutanix Cloud Infrastructure is sold to replace in the same enterprise data centers.

P/E: 31.3Score: 70Market cap: $347.80B

Dell sells the VxRail and PowerFlex hyperconverged systems to the same enterprise IT buyers, competing appliance-against-appliance even while it also ships servers certified for Nutanix software.

P/E: 28.6Score: 72Market cap: $3.70T

Microsoft competes both on-premises with Hyper-V and Azure Local and in the public cloud with Azure, for the workloads Nutanix wants to host on its hybrid platform.

P/E: 32.9Score: 62Market cap: $83.14B

HPE offers its own virtualization and hyperconverged portfolio, including SimpliVity and the GreenLake private-cloud subscriptions, to the same mid-market and enterprise accounts.

Red Hat, Inc.Not tracked

Red Hat, an IBM subsidiary, competes with OpenShift Virtualization and OpenStack as the open-source alternative for running virtual machines and containers on the customer's own hardware.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$2.85B

最近12个月(截至2026/7/31)

净利润

$1.51B

最近12个月(截至2026/7/31)

自由现金流

$841M

股东权益合计

$703M

负债合计

$4.37B

流动比率

1.80

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

4.42

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$90.04

当前价格

$70.67

安全边际

+21.5%

公允价值区间

$58.53 - $121.55

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$76.41
现金流折现法(DCF):$72.96
市盈率法(P/E):$153.82
格雷厄姆成长公式:$85.80
盈利能力价值(EPV):$8.72
合理市净率(P/B):$77.37
股息折现模型(戈登模型):数据不足,无法计算
P/FFO(运营资金):$93.28
周期中段收益:数据不足,无法计算
市销率法(P/S):$49.75
分析师共识:买入 (15B / 10H / 0S)
最近财报超预期:+21.24%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

13.62

ROE

214.5%

市净率(P/B)

27.12

P/FCF

22.66

毛利率

86.8%

ROIC

6.4%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

6.4%

WACC

7.8%

ROIC − WACC

-1.5 pp

ROIC 低于资本成本:公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(19)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 10.13%
  • ROIC 6.4%
  • Gross Margin 86.8%
  • P/FCF 22.66
  • Operating Margin 9.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 180.7%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 15.4%
  • Analyst Consensus 60% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 17.7%
  • Share Dilution 0.6%
  • Net Margin Trend 52.8% vs 7.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

未通过(5)

  • P/B Ratio 27.12
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.61

不可用(3)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-评分

5/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

0.61

中等:利润与现金之间存在一定差距

股权稀释

0.6%

股份数量稳定

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Dr. Rajiv Ramaswami Ph.D.CEO & Director59
Ms. Rukmini SivaramanPrincipal Accounting Officer & CFO43
Mr. Brian Michael Martin J.D.Chief Legal Officer63
Mr. Tarkan ManerPresident & Chief Commercial Officer55
Ms. Mandy DhaliwalChief Marketing Officer-
Ms. Jennifer LepirdChief People Officer-
Mr. Dave GwynSenior Vice President of Worldwide Channels & Customer Success-
Mr. Inder SidhuChief Customer Experience Officer65
Mr. Sammy ZoghlamiSenior Vice President of Sales in EMEA-
Mr. Andrew BrindedChief Revenue Officer-

审计风险

4

董事会风险

2

薪酬风险

3

股东权利风险

2

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-09-18

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-05-29

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-09-24

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for NTNX, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 5/27/2026NEUTRAL
    Nutanix Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcript

    Nutanix Inc. held its Q3 2026 earnings call on May 27, 2026. The transcript of this call is now available, providing detailed insights into the company's financial performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook. Investors and analysts can review the discussion for a comprehensive understanding of Nutanix's operational status and market positioning. The availability of the full transcript allows for a deeper dive into management's commentary on revenue, profitability, and growth drivers.

  • 2/26/2026NEGATIVE
    These Analysts Cut Their Forecasts On Nutanix After Q2 Results

    Analysts have reportedly lowered their forecasts for Nutanix Inc. (NTNX) following the company's second-quarter results. While some investment banks, including Wells Fargo, Needham, and Morgan Stanley, maintained their previous ratings, the overarching market sentiment, as indicated by the news title, points to a reduction in expectations. This development suggests potential downward pressure on the stock's future performance, as expert projections often influence investor confidence and purchasing decisions. Investors should closely monitor the company's upcoming actions and market reactions, as a downgrade in forecasts can precede periods of volatility or corrections.

via Markets Gazette