Natera, Inc. (NTRA)
被高估基本面
36
价格
$417.24
市值
$58.92B
第一部分 · 这家公司值多少
概览
Natera runs genetic tests from a blood or tissue sample, sold to physicians and processed almost entirely in its own high-volume laboratory. Its main tests screen pregnancies for chromosomal problems and genetic disease risk, check whether a transplanted organ is being rejected, and, its fastest-growing use, watch cancer patients' blood for trace DNA that signals the disease has returned after treatment. Doctors order a test, Natera runs it and bills insurers or patients, and many patients need repeat testing over time.
盈利方式
Natera recognizes revenue when a test result is delivered, billing insurers, government payers or patients directly depending on coverage, and does not report a dollar breakdown between its women's health, oncology and organ health testing. Its oncology test, which monitors cancer patients over months or years for signs of recurrence, generates repeat orders per patient rather than a single sale, so revenue depends heavily on how much insurers actually pay per claim, not just on test volume.
护城河
专利与许可 · 狭窄Natera holds a broad patent portfolio around its cell-free DNA testing technology and has built years of clinical validation data and physician relationships that a new entrant would need to replicate from scratch. That said, Exact Sciences, Guardant Health and large reference labs are investing heavily in competing tests, so the advantage is meaningful rather than exclusive.
需求驱动因素
防御型Testing for pregnancy risk, transplant rejection and cancer recurrence is driven by medical necessity rather than discretionary spending, so demand does not disappear in a downturn. Growth instead depends on how quickly physicians adopt each test, how many conditions get new reimbursement coverage, and how the addressable patient population expands — factors largely unrelated to the broader economy.
主要风险
- Reimbursement and payer risk — Insurers can deny coverage, change reimbursement rates, or demand repayment of amounts they later decide were billed incorrectly, and Natera does not have a specific billing code for every test it offers.
- Competition in liquid biopsy and prenatal testing — Exact Sciences, Guardant Health and other diagnostics companies are developing competing cancer-monitoring and prenatal tests, and a superior or cheaper rival test could erode Natera's share in any of its testing categories.
- Billing and litigation risk — Natera has faced regulatory scrutiny and litigation over its marketing and billing practices in the past; adverse rulings or settlements could impose costs or restrict how it sells and bills for tests.
- Regulation of laboratory-developed tests — Natera's tests are largely regulated as laboratory-developed tests rather than as approved medical devices; stricter FDA oversight of this category could raise costs or slow the launch of new tests.
客户集中度
Tests are ordered by a large, fragmented base of individual physicians and clinics rather than a few large accounts, so no single customer represents a material share of revenue.
看多理由
Buyers argue that Natera's oncology monitoring test is winning rapid physician adoption with each patient generating repeat orders over years, and that its proprietary technology and accumulating clinical evidence make it hard for competitors to dislodge across women's health, oncology and organ health testing at once.
看空理由
Sellers fear that revenue still depends heavily on discretionary reimbursement decisions by insurers that can change with little notice, that well-funded rivals are chasing the same fast-growing cancer-monitoring market, and that the company's history of billing and marketing litigation could resurface as it scales.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Both sell blood-based circulating-tumor-DNA tests to the same oncologists for detecting residual cancer after surgery, where Guardant Reveal competes head-to-head with Natera's Signatera.
Exact Sciences offers Haystack MRD alongside its colorectal screening franchise, chasing the same oncology customers and the same reimbursed test volumes as Signatera.
CareDx's AlloSure is the direct rival of Natera's Prospera in donor-derived cell-free DNA testing sold to US transplant centres monitoring organ rejection.
Labcorp competes for the same obstetric practices and payer contracts in non-invasive prenatal testing and carrier screening, where Natera's Panorama and Horizon are sold.
Myriad sells prenatal screening and hereditary cancer testing to the same women's-health clinicians Natera serves, and is moving into residual-disease monitoring as well.
This private California lab's UNITY prenatal screen takes share from Panorama in the same US obstetric market, and Natera names it among its main women's-health rivals.
资产负债表与流动性
营收
$2.71B
最近12个月（截至2026/6/30）
净利润
$-192M
最近12个月（截至2026/6/30）
自由现金流
$109M
股东权益合计
$1.71B
负债合计
$686M
流动比率
3.00
利息覆盖率
75.89
债务/EBITDA
-
每股收益
营收与净利润
自由现金流
收入构成
历史财务表
利润率变化
债务变化
债务负担有多重
增长一览表
增长 — 营业收入
公允价值估算
公允价值
$197.59
当前价格
$417.24
安全边际
-111.2%
公允价值区间
$128.43 - $266.74
所用估值方法之间的离散区间，并非经过统计校准的置信区间。
估算方法
估值指标
市盈率（P/E）
-
ROE
-12.2%
市净率（P/B）
32.71
P/FCF
707.58
毛利率
-
ROIC
-10.9%
盈利能力雷达图
价值创造（经济护城河）
ROIC
-10.9%
WACC
13.2%
ROIC − WACC
-24.1 pp
ROIC 低于资本成本：公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。
基本面分析标准
通过（10）
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 42.02%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Revenue Growth 5Y 42.6%
- Analyst Consensus 87% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 24.5%
- Net Margin Trend -7.1% vs -12.9%
未通过（11）
- ROIC -10.9%
- P/FCF 707.58
- P/B Ratio 32.71
- Operating Margin -10.7%
- CapEx intensity
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- ROE -11.7%
- Share Dilution 10.0%
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9
不可用（6）
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Debt/EBITDA
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
- Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)
Piotroski F-评分
存在严重财务隐患
盈利质量
低质量：需深入审查会计处理
股权稀释
正在发行新股，稀释所有权
机构持股
公司治理
管理团队
| 姓名 | 职位 | 年龄 |
|---|---|---|
| Dr. Matthew Rabinowitz Ph.D. | Co-Founder & Executive Chairman | 52 |
| Mr. Steven Leonard Chapman | CEO & Director | 46 |
| Mr. John Fesko | President & Chief Business Officer | 46 |
| Mr. Michael B. Brophy M.B.A. | Chief Financial Officer | 45 |
| Mr. Solomon Moshkevich M.B.A. | President of Clinical Diagnostics | 43 |
| Mr. Jonathan Sheena M.Eng. | Co-Founder & Director | 52 |
| Ms. Olesya A. Anisimova CPA | Chief Accounting Officer | - |
| Mr. Rishi Kacker | Chief Technology Officer | - |
| Mr. Eric A. Evans Ph.D. | Chief Scientific Officer | - |
| Mr. Daniel Rabinowitz L.L.M. | Secretary & Chief Legal Officer | 56 |
审计风险
1
董事会风险
8
薪酬风险
6
股东权利风险
8
第二部分 · 价格与买入时机
这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有：它帮助你在基本面说服你之后，选择何时买入。包含：技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。
损益历史
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for NTRA, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 6/2/2026POSITIVE$100 Invested In Natera 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
An investment of $100 in Natera Inc. (NTRA) a decade ago would have yielded significant returns, illustrating the company's substantial growth and market performance over the past ten years. While specific figures are not provided in the summary, the headline implies a strong positive trajectory for the stock. Natera, a leader in genetic testing and diagnostics, has likely benefited from advancements in its technology and increasing adoption in the healthcare sector. Investors tracking the biotechnology and diagnostics space should note Natera's historical performance as a potential indicator of future growth prospects, contingent on continued innovation and market demand.
- 5/22/2026POSITIVEIf You Invested $1000 In Natera Stock 10 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today
An investment of $1000 in Natera Inc. (NTRA) a decade ago would have yielded a substantial return, illustrating the company's significant growth trajectory. While specific figures are not provided in the prompt, the article's premise suggests a remarkable performance for shareholders. Natera, a leader in genetic testing, has likely benefited from increased adoption of its non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) and oncology diagnostics. Investors should note this historical performance as an indicator of potential future gains, contingent on continued innovation and market expansion in the rapidly evolving biotech sector.
- 4/14/2026POSITIVENatera Positioned To Capture Growing $20 Billion MRD Opportunity-Analyst
William Blair has initiated coverage on Natera Inc. with a positive outlook, highlighting the company's significant potential within the growing $20 billion MRD (minimal residual disease) market. The analyst firm cited Natera's strong competitive moat and a diversified product pipeline as key drivers supporting a robust long-term growth trajectory. This initiation of coverage by a reputable firm suggests increasing institutional interest and validation of Natera's business model and market position, potentially leading to increased investor confidence and stock appreciation.
- 2/27/2026NEUTRALNatera (NTRA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Natera Inc. held its Q4 2025 earnings call, as indicated by the transcript availability. However, specific details from the call's content are not yet available for analysis, leaving investors without immediate actionable insights. While an earnings call is a crucial event for corporate transparency, the absence of its content means no direct directional signals can be inferred for NTRA stock at this time. Market participants will be closely watching for the release of the full transcript and financial data to assess the company's performance and future outlook within the biotechnology and diagnostic testing sector.
via Markets Gazette