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PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)

被低估
Financial ServicesCredit ServicesUnited States

基本面

82

价格

$52.53

市值

$45.34B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

PayPal lets people and businesses send and accept money online without sharing bank details, through the PayPal wallet, Venmo for peer-to-peer transfers, and Braintree, which lets merchants build PayPal's checkout directly into their own apps and websites. It sits between a buyer's bank or card and a merchant, verifying identity and guaranteeing the payment goes through, which is why merchants pay to use it even though direct card processing can be cheaper.

盈利方式

Transaction revenue, the large majority of the total, is a fee charged as a percentage of each payment processed, plus fixed amounts for currency conversion and cross-border transfers, so it scales directly with the dollar value flowing through PayPal's network. The rest, revenue from other value-added services, comes from interest on loans PayPal extends to consumers and merchants, interest earned on customer balances held with PayPal, and referral or subscription fees — income that does not require a transaction to occur.

分部营收

Transaction Revenue90%

Fees earned as a percentage of payment volume processed through PayPal, Venmo and Braintree, plus currency conversion and cross-border charges.

Other Value Added Services10%

Interest on consumer and merchant credit products, interest on customer balances, and partnership, subscription and referral fees not tied to a transaction.

护城河

网络效应 · 狭窄

PayPal benefits from a two-sided network: more merchants who accept it make it more useful for consumers, and more consumers who use it make it more valuable for merchants to offer. But that effect has weakened as card networks, Apple Pay and dedicated checkout providers like Stripe have become just as widely accepted, eroding PayPal's early advantage.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Transaction revenue tracks the overall volume of e-commerce and digital payments, which has grown steadily but is still tied to consumer spending and can slow when shoppers pull back in a weaker economy. Interest income on loans and customer balances adds a second, rate-sensitive driver that moves with monetary policy rather than with commerce itself.

主要风险

  • Intensifying payments competition — Apple Pay, Google Pay, card-network wallets and checkout specialists like Stripe and Adyen all compete for the same merchant and consumer transactions, pressuring PayPal's take rate and market share.
  • Sensitivity to interest rates — A meaningful part of other value-added services revenue comes from interest income, so lower rates directly reduce this part of revenue independent of how much payment volume PayPal processes.
  • Regulatory exposure across many jurisdictions — PayPal operates as a money transmitter and lender across dozens of countries, each with its own consumer-protection, anti-money-laundering and payments regulation that can change and raise compliance costs.
  • Credit risk on consumer and merchant lending — PayPal extends credit directly to consumers and merchants through products like Buy Now Pay Later and working-capital loans, exposing it to losses if borrowers do not repay.

看多理由

Buyers argue that PayPal's wallet, Venmo and Braintree together still process an enormous and growing volume of e-commerce, that a large base of stored customer balances and credit products gives it a second revenue stream beyond simple payment fees, and that recent efforts to modernize checkout can defend its take rate against newer competitors.

看空理由

Sellers fear that checkout has become commoditized, with Apple Pay and card-network wallets now just as convenient as the PayPal button that built the company, that Venmo and Braintree still monetize below the core PayPal brand's rate, and that interest income leaves a chunk of revenue exposed to rate cuts outside management's control.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$33.73B

最近12个月(截至2026/3/31)

净利润

$5.06B

最近12个月(截至2026/3/31)

自由现金流

$5.56B

股东权益合计

$20.26B

负债合计

$59.92B

流动比率

1.26

利息覆盖率

13.41

债务/EBITDA

1.43

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形被低估

公允价值

$73.53

当前价格

$52.53

安全边际

+28.6%

公允价值区间

$47.80 - $99.27

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$57.07
现金流折现法(DCF):$115.41
市盈率法(P/E):$49.30
格雷厄姆成长公式:$121.87
盈利能力价值(EPV):$44.36
合理市净率(P/B):$56.18
股息折现模型(戈登模型):$1.77
P/FFO(运营资金):$112.39
周期中段收益:$64.63
市销率法(P/S):$101.25
分析师共识:持有 (14B / 35H / 3S)
最近财报超预期:+5.92%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

9.86

ROE

25.8%

市净率(P/B)

2.31

P/FCF

8.42

毛利率

-

ROIC

14.5%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

14.5%

WACC

10.4%

ROIC − WACC

+4.0 pp

ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(21)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 17.51%
  • ROIC 14.5%
  • P/FCF 8.42
  • P/B Ratio 2.31
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 17.9%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 24.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 9.1%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 3.2%
  • PEG Ratio 1.03
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.26
  • Share Dilution -6.9%
  • Net Margin Trend 15.0% vs 14.3%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

未通过(5)

  • Price CAGR 2.90%
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • Analyst Consensus 27% Buy

不可用(2)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-评分

7/9

财务状况强健

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.26

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-6.9%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Enrique J. LoresPresident, CEO & Director59
Ms. Jamie S. MillerChief Financial & Operating Officer and Executive VP56
Mr. Frank KellerPresident of Checkout Solutions & PayPal51
Ms. Suzan Bulyaba KereerePresident of Global Markets59
Mr. Christopher NataliSenior VP & Chief Accounting Officer47
Mr. Srinivasan VenkatesanChief Technology Officer54
Mr. Steven Eric WinokerChief Investor Relations Officer-
Mr. Bimal PatelChief Legal Officer-
Ms. Amy BonitatibusChief Corporate Affairs & Communications Officer-
Mr. Antonio J. LucioChief Marketing & Corporate Affairs Officer66

审计风险

1

董事会风险

4

薪酬风险

3

股东权利风险

6

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-03

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-07-28

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-07-28

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for PYPL, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 8/28/2026NEGATIVE
    PayPal’s stock slides as a takeover bid is said to fall through. What’s next for the company?

    PayPal's stock experienced a significant decline following reports that a potential takeover bid has failed to materialize. This news removes a key catalyst that had been supporting the stock price in recent months. Investors had been anticipating a potential acquisition as a catalyst for a turnaround, but the failure of this bid leaves PayPal facing the challenge of executing its strategic initiatives independently. The company must now demonstrate its ability to drive growth and improve profitability through its own operational efforts, which introduces a higher degree of uncertainty for shareholders.

  • 8/25/2026NEUTRAL
    Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index: PayPal Holdings (PYPL)

    PayPal Holdings (PYPL), a prominent member of the Nasdaq-100®, is highlighted for its extensive digital payments network spanning over 200 countries. The analysis delves into its dual-sided payment system, the expansion of its Venmo platform, and strategic initiatives in AI-driven commerce, lending, and advertising. These efforts aim to diversify revenue streams beyond conventional payment processing, signaling a focus on innovation and future growth avenues for the company.

  • 7/28/2026POSITIVE
    PayPal delivers an earnings beat — and suggests it’s not against a merger deal

    PayPal Holdings Inc. announced an earnings beat, exceeding analyst expectations for the latest fiscal quarter. The company's CEO indicated a willingness to explore strategic alternatives, including potential merger or acquisition discussions, if they present a clear path to superior shareholder value compared to their current strategy. This dual announcement of strong operational performance and openness to significant strategic shifts has generated positive sentiment among investors, suggesting potential upside catalysts for the stock.

  • 7/28/2026NEUTRAL
    PayPal expands stablecoin push as crypto assets factor into Q2 results

    PayPal reported Q2 revenue of $8.68 billion, meeting analyst expectations. The company highlighted growth in its stablecoin initiatives and the integration of AI-driven payment tools. A notable crypto-related earnings adjustment of $81 million was also disclosed. While the stablecoin expansion signals innovation and potential future revenue streams, the crypto adjustment introduces a degree of uncertainty. Investors will monitor the long-term impact of these digital asset strategies on profitability and overall business performance.

via Markets Gazette