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The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM)

合理估值
Consumer DefensiveBeverages - BrewersUnited States

基本面

55

价格

$163.79

市值

$1.73B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Boston Beer makes and sells alcohol beverages under a portfolio of brands built around flavor rather than one core beer style: Twisted Tea, Truly Hard Seltzer, Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard, Dogfish Head and newer entries like Sun Cruiser. It brews some of its own volume at four company-owned breweries and contracts the rest out to third parties. Sales go almost entirely through independent beer wholesalers, who then sell into bars, restaurants and retailers across the United States and a handful of export markets.

盈利方式

Revenue comes from selling finished cans, bottles and kegs to distributors, who resell to retailers and bars; Boston Beer books the sale on shipment, not on what the end consumer eventually buys. Because volume has been shrinking across most brands, growth now depends on premium pricing and shifting the mix toward faster-growing lines like Sun Cruiser and Twisted Tea Extreme rather than on selling more total gallons. Contract-brewing shortfall fees can eat into margin when actual volume misses committed minimums.

护城河

品牌 · 狭窄

Twisted Tea has been the largest-selling flavored malt beverage brand in the U.S. since 2022, and Boston Beer ranks as the second-largest supplier in the 'Beyond Beer' category with about 20% share. Those positions took decades and heavy marketing spend to build, but the moat is narrow: rivals with far deeper pockets, from AB InBev to Coca-Cola-backed brands, compete hard for the same shelf space.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Demand tracks discretionary consumer spending on alcohol more than the broader economy — sales hold up reasonably well in downturns but face growing pressure from a structural shift toward moderation and non-alcoholic alternatives among younger drinkers. The U.S. beer market overall declined about 4% by volume in 2025, a headwind that predates any recession.

主要风险

  • Substantial competition — The company competes against much larger brewers such as AB InBev and Molson Coors, growing imported beer brands, and non-alcoholic giants like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo that have entered the alcohol category through licensing deals, all fighting for the same shelf and tap space.
  • Changing consumer attitudes — The company states that younger generations are embracing moderation or abstinence, that U.S. beer volumes fell about 4% in 2025, and that further declines in alcohol consumption could materially hurt results.
  • Dependence on distributors — About 94% of Boston Beer's U.S. volume is sold through independent distributors it does not control, and changes in ownership or support within that network could weaken sales without a direct fix available to the company.
  • Contract-production shortfall fees — The company has committed to minimum annual volumes with third-party producers such as City Brewing and expects to fall short of those commitments, incurring shortfall fees of about $19 million in future years on top of $21.4 million already recorded in 2025.

客户集中度

主要客户占营收的7%

No single distributor is disclosed as a concentration risk: the largest individual distributor accounted for about 3% of gross sales in 2025, and the top three together for about 7%, reflecting a network of over 300 wholesalers.

看多理由

Buyers argue that Boston Beer's move toward higher-margin innovations like Sun Cruiser and Twisted Tea Extreme, combined with supply-chain efficiency gains that have cut inventory write-offs since 2023, position the company to grow earnings even as overall beer volumes shrink.

看空理由

Sellers fear that a structural decline in U.S. alcohol consumption among younger drinkers will keep pressuring volumes across nearly every brand in the portfolio, and that shortfall fees on contract-production commitments will keep weighing on margins as demand undershoots the levels the company planned for.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$1.93B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/27)

净利润

$-70M

最近12个月(截至2026/6/27)

自由现金流

$216M

股东权益合计

$846M

负债合计

$347M

流动比率

1.05

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

0.13

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$199.00

当前价格

$163.79

安全边际

+17.7%

公允价值区间

$189.05 - $208.95

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$199.00
现金流折现法(DCF):数据不足,无法计算
市盈率法(P/E):数据不足,无法计算
格雷厄姆成长公式:数据不足,无法计算
盈利能力价值(EPV):数据不足,无法计算
合理市净率(P/B):数据不足,无法计算
股息折现模型(戈登模型):数据不足,无法计算
P/FFO(运营资金):数据不足,无法计算
周期中段收益:数据不足,无法计算
市销率法(P/S):$220.21
分析师共识:持有 (1B / 15H / 7S)
最近财报超预期:-25.12%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

16.81

ROE

12.8%

市净率(P/B)

1.92

P/FCF

6.64

毛利率

48.9%

ROIC

-9.4%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

-9.4%

WACC

9.1%

ROIC − WACC

-18.5 pp

ROIC 低于资本成本:公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(11)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 9.94%
  • Gross Margin 48.9%
  • P/FCF 6.64
  • P/B Ratio 1.92
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Share Dilution -7.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

未通过(12)

  • Price CAGR -0.13%
  • ROIC -9.4%
  • Operating Margin -4.7%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • ROE -8.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 2.5%
  • Analyst Consensus 4% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 0.3%
  • Net Margin Trend -3.6% vs 3.9%

不可用(5)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)

Piotroski F-评分

7/9

财务状况强健

score
criteria

盈利质量

-

低质量:需深入审查会计处理

股权稀释

-7.0%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. C. James Koch J.D.Founder, Chairman, President & CEO75
Mr. Samuel A. Calagione IIIFounder, Brewer of Dogfish Head & Director55
Ms. Laura J. BoyntonChief People Officer49
Ms. Lesya LysyjAdvisor62
Mr. Paul WeaverDirector & Head of Cannabis-
Mr. Philip E. SavastanoChief Supply Chain Officer-
Mr. Michael G. AndrewsAssociate General Counsel & Corporate Secretary-

审计风险

8

董事会风险

9

薪酬风险

10

股东权利风险

10

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-24

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-07-23

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-08-20

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for SAM, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 2/24/2026NEUTRAL
    Boston Beer Co Earnings Review: Q4 Summary

    Boston Beer Co has announced its Q4 earnings review, but the specific details of the report have not been made available at this time. Without key data such as revenues, earnings per share, or future guidance, investors are unable to fully assess the company's performance or its potential impact on the stock price. The market awaits more comprehensive information to form an informed judgment on the financial health and growth prospects of the craft beer and alcoholic beverage producer, leaving the stock in a state of uncertainty.

via Markets Gazette