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Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD)

合理估值
Basic MaterialsSteelUnited States

基本面

73

价格

$225.64

市值

$33.71B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Steel Dynamics makes steel primarily from recycled scrap metal in electric-arc-furnace mills, rather than from iron ore in traditional blast furnaces, and sells it as flat and long steel products to construction, automotive, energy and manufacturing customers. It also owns a large scrap-metal recycling operation that feeds its own mills, a steel-fabrication business that turns raw steel into finished joists and decking, and a newer aluminum recycling and rolling operation.

盈利方式

Revenue comes from selling steel, fabricated steel products, recycled scrap and, increasingly, aluminum by the ton, so results move with steel and metal prices as much as with volumes sold. Because its mills run on scrap rather than iron ore, and its own recycling operations supply much of that scrap, Steel Dynamics has a lower and more flexible cost base than integrated steelmakers, which supports profitability even when steel prices are weak, though it remains a commodity business with thin control over the price it charges.

分部营收

Steel71.6%

Flat-rolled and long steel products made mainly from recycled scrap at electric-arc-furnace mills; by far the largest source of revenue and profit.

Metals Recycling11.2%

Collection and processing of scrap metal, sold to outside customers as well as feeding Steel Dynamics' own mills.

Steel Fabrication7.8%

Steel joists, girders and decking made for non-residential construction projects, a step further down the value chain from raw steel.

Other7.3%

Corporate functions and smaller operations not allocated to the four main reportable segments.

Aluminum2%

A newer recycled-aluminum flat-rolled products business, including a large new mill commissioned in 2025.

护城河

成本优势 · 狭窄

Running mills on recycled scrap through electric-arc furnaces, backed by an in-house recycling network, gives Steel Dynamics lower capital and operating costs per ton than older integrated steelmakers using blast furnaces. That structural cost edge helps it stay profitable through the cycle, but steel remains a commodity: competitors run similar mini-mill technology, and none of them can charge more than the going market price for a ton of steel.

需求驱动因素

周期性

Steel demand tracks construction, automotive production and broader industrial activity, all of which expand and contract with the economy, and steel prices themselves swing widely with global supply and demand and with trade policy. Steel Dynamics' results have historically moved up and down sharply with these cycles, even though its lower cost base helps it stay profitable in the troughs where higher-cost competitors lose money.

主要风险

  • Steel price cyclicality — Steel prices move with global supply, demand and trade policy, and a sustained price downturn compresses margins across all of Steel Dynamics' operations at once, since steel, scrap and fabrication all move together.
  • Trade policy and tariff exposure — Steel Dynamics' results are affected by US and foreign tariffs, quotas and trade disputes, which can help domestic producers when they restrict imports but can also invite retaliation or be reversed by future policy changes.
  • Large capital projects and execution risk — Steel Dynamics is investing heavily in new capacity, including its aluminum business; cost overruns, delays or weaker-than-expected demand for the new output would reduce the return on that spending.
  • Energy cost exposure — Electric-arc furnaces consume large amounts of electricity, so rising power costs directly raise production costs in a business that cannot easily pass higher costs through in a commodity market.

看多理由

Buyers argue that Steel Dynamics' low-cost, scrap-based mills keep it profitable through steel-price downturns that hurt higher-cost integrated competitors, that vertical integration into scrap recycling and fabrication captures margin at multiple stages, and that the new aluminum business opens a large adjacent market for the same cost advantages.

看空理由

Sellers fear that steel remains a cyclical commodity where even the lowest-cost producer suffers when prices fall industry-wide, that heavy capital spending on new capacity, including aluminum, raises the risk of a poorly timed expansion, and that trade-policy support for domestic steelmakers could be reduced or reversed.

分部数据来自2025财年信息来源: Steel Dynamics Reports Fourth Quarter and Annual 2025 Results

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$20.54B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$1.61B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$502M

股东权益合计

$8.96B

负债合计

$7.49B

流动比率

3.18

利息覆盖率

18.22

债务/EBITDA

2.06

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

周期性合理估值

公允价值

$217.28

当前价格

$225.64

安全边际

-3.8%

公允价值区间

$141.78 - $292.77

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$272.14
现金流折现法(DCF):不适用于此类公司
市盈率法(P/E):$134.45
格雷厄姆成长公式:不适用于此类公司
盈利能力价值(EPV):$88.19
合理市净率(P/B):不适用于此类公司
股息折现模型(戈登模型):不适用于此类公司
P/FFO(运营资金):不适用于此类公司
周期中段收益:$261.38
市销率法(P/S):不适用于此类公司
分析师共识:买入 (14B / 7H / 1S)
最近财报超预期:+2.72%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

20.13

ROE

13.2%

市净率(P/B)

3.37

P/FCF

33.24

毛利率

14.7%

ROIC

11.0%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

11.0%

WACC

11.5%

ROIC − WACC

-0.5 pp

ROIC 与资本成本大致持平:公司仅仅覆盖了资本成本。

基本面分析标准

通过(20)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 7.97%
  • Price CAGR 20.74%
  • ROIC 11.0%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 10.0%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 17.6%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 13.6%
  • Analyst Consensus 64% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 0.83
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.98
  • Share Dilution -5.0%
  • Net Margin Trend 7.8% vs 6.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

未通过(7)

  • Gross Margin 14.7%
  • P/FCF 33.24
  • P/B Ratio 3.37
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg 2.0%

不可用(1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-评分

5/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

0.98

中等:利润与现金之间存在一定差距

股权稀释

-5.0%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Mark D. MillettCo-Founder, Chairman & CEO65
Ms. Theresa E. WaglerExecutive VP, CFO, Company Secretary & Director55
Mr. Barry T. SchneiderExecutive VP & CTO56
Mr. Christopher A. GrahamExecutive VP & COO of Flat Rolled Steel Operations61
Mr. David A. LipschitzInvestor Relations Director-
Mr. James S. AndersonExecutive VP & COO of Construction Products Operations64
Mr. Miguel AlvarezExecutive VP and COO of Aluminum Flat Rolled Products & Metals Recycling Operations57
Mr. Richard A. Poinsatte CPAExecutive VP & Treasurer58
Ms. Tricia MeyersInvestor Relations Manager-

审计风险

4

董事会风险

4

薪酬风险

5

股东权利风险

3

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-27

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-07-28

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-09-18

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for STLD, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/16/2026POSITIVE
    $100 Invested In Steel Dynamics 20 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today

    An investment of $100 in Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) made 20 years ago would have grown to a substantial amount today, reflecting the company's strong performance and shareholder returns over the past two decades. This long-term growth indicates robust operational execution, strategic expansion, and effective capital allocation, likely driven by consistent demand in the steel sector and the company's ability to adapt to market cycles. For investors, this historical performance underscores STLD's potential as a long-term wealth-generating asset, highlighting its resilience and capacity for value creation.

  • 5/20/2026POSITIVE
    Here's How Much $100 Invested In Steel Dynamics 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today

    An investment of $100 in Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) five years ago would have grown to approximately $345 today, representing a substantial return of over 245%. This performance significantly outpaced the broader market, highlighting the company's robust growth and operational efficiency during the period. Factors contributing to this impressive valuation include strong demand for steel products, strategic capacity expansions, and effective cost management, all of which have bolstered investor confidence and share price appreciation.

  • 4/20/2026POSITIVE
    Steel Dynamics Revenue Grows Most Since 2022, Beating Estimates

    Steel Dynamics Inc. reported first-quarter revenue growth that exceeded analyst estimates, marking the fastest expansion since 2022. This surge was propelled by a significant increase in steel prices and a record 3.6 million tons of steel shipments, which also contributed to a strong profit rebound. The company's performance indicates a robust recovery in demand and pricing power within the steel sector, offering a positive outlook for investors.

via Markets Gazette