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Walmart Inc. (WMT)

合理估值
Consumer DefensiveDiscount StoresUnited States

基本面

49

价格

$104.85

市值

$853.59B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Walmart operates supercentres, discount stores and neighbourhood grocery stores under its own name in the United States, plus Sam's Club membership warehouses, and runs a large e-commerce business alongside them. Outside the US it owns retail chains in Mexico, Central America, Canada and China. It sells groceries, general merchandise, apparel and household goods, and has added a growing advertising business that sells shelf space and digital ads to the brands stocked on its shelves.

盈利方式

Revenue is recognized transaction by transaction, every time a customer checks out in a store or online, so sales volume rather than price per item is the main driver of the top line. Sam's Club adds recurring membership fees paid to shop there. Because Walmart buys in enormous volume, it negotiates low wholesale prices from suppliers and keeps a thin margin on each item, relying on scale and inventory turnover — plus the fast-growing, higher-margin advertising business — to generate profit.

分部营收

Walmart U.S.68.4%

Supercentres, discount stores and neighbourhood markets across the United States, plus Walmart's US e-commerce and advertising businesses.

Walmart International18.5%

Retail operations outside the US, mainly in Mexico, Central America, Canada and China.

Sam's Club13.2%

Membership warehouse clubs in the US selling groceries and general merchandise in bulk to fee-paying members.

护城河

成本优势 · 宽阔

Walmart's purchase volumes are so large that it can negotiate wholesale prices few competitors can match, and it spreads the fixed costs of its supply chain and distribution network over more sales than almost anyone else. That combination lets it sustain everyday low prices while still turning a profit, which smaller or regional retailers struggle to match without losing money.

需求驱动因素

防御型

A large share of Walmart's sales is groceries and everyday household essentials, categories people keep buying in a recession and where Walmart's low prices can even attract more customers trading down from pricier retailers. General merchandise, apparel and electronics are more discretionary and do soften in a downturn, but the grocery-heavy mix keeps overall demand more stable than at a typical discretionary retailer.

主要风险

  • Execution risk at massive scale — The company operates at such scale that small operational mistakes in pricing, inventory or logistics can become expensive very quickly once repeated across thousands of stores and clubs.
  • Low-price strategy limits margin — Walmart's everyday-low-price positioning constrains how much it can raise prices when its own costs rise, so cost inflation it cannot pass on to customers falls straight onto margin.
  • E-commerce investment burden — Growing online and delivery sales requires continuous, heavy investment in fulfilment and logistics, and this channel remains less profitable than in-store sales even as it grows.
  • Labor cost inflation and unionization — As one of the largest private employers, Walmart is exposed to wage inflation, benefit costs and unionization efforts that can raise operating costs or disrupt store operations.

看多理由

Buyers argue that Walmart's scale and low-price positioning make it a natural destination when shoppers are cautious, that its advertising and membership businesses add higher-margin profit on top of thin retail margins, and that record digital sales show it competing effectively online as well as in stores.

看空理由

Sellers worry that Walmart's everyday-low-price model leaves little room to raise prices when its own costs rise, that continued heavy investment is needed to keep e-commerce and delivery competitive with rivals, and that a change in leadership introduces execution uncertainty at a company already operating at enormous scale.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$728.47B

最近12个月(截至2026/7/31)

净利润

$22.08B

最近12个月(截至2026/7/31)

自由现金流

$14.92B

股东权益合计

$99.62B

负债合计

$178.78B

流动比率

0.77

利息覆盖率

17.36

债务/EBITDA

1.68

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$102.25

当前价格

$104.85

安全边际

-2.5%

公允价值区间

$77.92 - $126.57

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$127.43
现金流折现法(DCF):$101.78
市盈率法(P/E):$98.33
格雷厄姆成长公式:$76.93
盈利能力价值(EPV):$39.98
合理市净率(P/B):$58.57
股息折现模型(戈登模型):$24.41
P/FFO(运营资金):$72.79
周期中段收益:$72.63
市销率法(P/S):$109.26
分析师共识:强力买入 (42B / 6H / 0S)
最近财报超预期:+8.19%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

37.65

ROE

22.0%

市净率(P/B)

8.39

P/FCF

61.03

毛利率

24.5%

ROIC

14.3%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

14.3%

WACC

7.6%

ROIC − WACC

+6.7 pp

ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(15)

  • Price CAGR 16.98%
  • ROIC 14.3%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 22.7%
  • Analyst Consensus 88% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 2.7%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.94
  • Share Dilution -0.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

未通过(12)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR -0.76%
  • Gross Margin 24.5%
  • P/FCF 61.03
  • P/B Ratio 8.39
  • Operating Margin 4.4%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 5.0%
  • PEG Ratio 3.34
  • Net Margin Trend 3.0% vs 3.1%

不可用(1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-评分

6/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.94

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-0.6%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. John R. FurnerPresident, CEO & Director50
Mr. John David Rainey Jr.Executive VP & CFO55
Mr. Suresh Kumar Ph.D.Executive VP, Global CTO & Chief Development Officer60
Mr. C. Douglas McMillonExecutive Officer59
Mr. Daniel DankerExecutive Vice President of AI Acceleration, Product & Design44
Mr. Dwayne M. MilumSenior VP, Controller & Principal Accounting Officer49
Ms. Stephanie WissinkSenior Vice President of Investor Relations-
Ms. Erin Nealy Cox J.D.Executive VP of Global Governance, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary55
Ms. Allyson ParkSenior VP & Chief Communications Officer-
Mr. Jason WootenHead of Corporate Development-

审计风险

5

董事会风险

8

薪酬风险

7

股东权利风险

1

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-03-13

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-08-28

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-08-20

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for WMT, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 4d agoNEUTRAL
    Walmart CEO says that the retail giant and its AI shopping assistant aren’t using personal information to set prices amid rollout of digital labels

    Walmart's CEO has stated that the company and its AI shopping assistant are not utilizing personal information to adjust pricing, particularly with the ongoing rollout of digital labels. The executive emphasized that factors like time of day or urgency of purchase will not influence the prices displayed for groceries or electronics. This clarification aims to address potential consumer concerns about algorithmic pricing and data privacy, assuring customers that dynamic pricing based on individual behavior is not being implemented. For investors, this stance reinforces Walmart's commitment to transparency and customer trust, potentially mitigating reputational risks.

  • 15d agoNEUTRAL
    Strong Retail Sales Hide Consumer Divide: Analyst Kodali

    Forrester analyst Sucharita Kodali highlights a significant divergence in US consumer spending. While higher-income consumers continue to spend robustly, rising costs, particularly for gasoline, are pressuring lower-income households. This economic split is expected to benefit discount retailers like Walmart, Costco, and Amazon, as they are better positioned to capture market share from struggling mid-tier retailers during the upcoming holiday season. Investors should monitor the performance of these large-cap retailers as indicators of consumer resilience and market consolidation.

  • 15d agoNEGATIVE
    Unloved Consumer Names Like Walmart Face Pressure as Rate Hike Draws Near

    Consumer-focused stocks, including retail giants like Walmart, have underperformed the broader market in 2026. This trend is exacerbated by the anticipation of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate hike this Wednesday. Higher rates typically increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, potentially dampening consumer spending and impacting the profitability of companies heavily reliant on it. Investors are advised to monitor consumer sentiment and retail sales data closely as these factors will be crucial in determining the near-term outlook for the sector.

  • 27d agoNEGATIVE
    DOJ expands beef price probe to eight retailers, including Walmart and Amazon, with inflation a key issue ahead of midterm elections

    The US Department of Justice has expanded its antitrust probe into beef prices to include eight major retailers, notably Walmart and Amazon. This investigation, which also targets meatpackers, comes amid concerns about rising inflation and its impact on consumer goods. The DOJ's focus on potential anti-competitive practices in the food supply chain could lead to increased scrutiny, compliance costs, and potential legal challenges for the involved retailers. Investors will monitor developments closely, as any findings of misconduct could negatively affect earnings and stock performance.

  • 8/22/2026NEGATIVE
    Cosa dicono i risultati di Walmart e Target sul consumatore statunitense?

    Walmart's stock experienced a significant decline of 9.2% following its latest earnings report, despite beating profit expectations. This drop signals growing consumer caution, attributed to elevated prices, high gasoline costs, and economic uncertainty. While customer traffic remains robust, the purchasing behavior indicates smaller, more deliberate transactions across major retailers like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot. This trend suggests a potential slowdown in consumer spending power, making investors wary of future revenue growth.

  • 8/21/2026NEGATIVE
    Walmart Shares Extend Decline After Rare US Sales Miss

    Walmart Inc. reported a rare miss on US comparable-store sales, with growth of 2.6% excluding fuel in the second quarter falling short of the lowest analyst estimates. This marks the slowest growth rate in over six years, primarily impacted by pricing pressures in its pharmacy segment. The company's shares experienced a significant decline, dropping as much as 10% intraday, wiping out its year-to-date gains. Investors are concerned about the retailer's deceleration, potentially reflecting broader economic slowdowns in the US.

  • 8/20/2026NEGATIVE
    Walmart Slides 9% as Sales Slow and Stocks Retreat | Closing Bell

    Walmart Inc. experienced a significant downturn, with its stock sliding 9% during the trading session. This decline was attributed to a noticeable slowdown in sales growth, which failed to meet market expectations. The broader market also saw a retreat, contributing to the negative sentiment surrounding the retail giant. Investors are closely watching these developments for signs of potential shifts in consumer spending patterns and the company's ability to maintain its market dominance amidst evolving economic conditions.

  • 8/20/2026POSITIVE
    Facing weary customers, Walmart will use its nearly $3 billion in tariff refunds to lower prices

    Walmart plans to leverage nearly $3 billion in tariff refunds to reduce prices for consumers, a strategic move following a nearly 9% stock decline attributed to a six-year low in U.S. sales growth. This initiative aims to regain customer loyalty and market share by offering more competitive pricing. While the company absorbed tariff costs last year, this refund allocation signals a renewed focus on value proposition. Investors will monitor the impact on sales volume and profit margins, as lower prices could boost demand but potentially compress short-term profitability.

via Markets Gazette