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Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA)

被高估
TechnologyCommunication EquipmentUnited States

基本面

65

价格

$377.60

市值

$17.39B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Zebra Technologies makes the hardware and software that track physical objects and people as they move through a business: barcode and RFID scanners, rugged mobile computers, label and receipt printers, machine-vision cameras, and the software that ties them together. Retailers use it to track inventory and ring up sales; warehouses and couriers scan packages with it; hospitals identify patients and medication with it. In 2025 it acquired Elo, adding self-service kiosks and payment terminals to the same customer base.

盈利方式

Zebra sells mostly hardware, largely through distributors rather than directly to end customers: three distributors together accounted for about 59% of 2025 net sales. Printers and scanners generate a recurring stream of supplies (labels, ribbons, batteries), while mobile computers and software increasingly carry subscription and support contracts. Demand tracks capital spending by retail, logistics and healthcare customers, so unit volumes rise and fall with those industries' own investment cycles rather than with steady end-consumer purchases.

护城河

转换成本 · 狭窄

Warehouses and retailers standardize scanning, printing and mobile-computing hardware, supplies and management software across thousands of devices; replacing an installed fleet means re-certifying workflows and retraining staff, which discourages switching suppliers. The advantage is real but not absolute: Honeywell, Datalogic and others sell comparable hardware, and large customers negotiate hard on price, so it does not bring the pricing power seen in pure software businesses.

需求驱动因素

周期性

Customers buy scanners, printers and mobile computers as part of capital budgets for new stores, warehouses or delivery fleets, spending that gets deferred quickly when retail or logistics volumes soften. The 2023-2024 downturn, when customers worked through inventory built up during the pandemic before ordering again, showed how sharply unit volumes can swing even though the underlying use cases stay permanent.

主要风险

  • Revenue concentrated in a few distributors — Three distributors together made up about 59% of 2025 net sales. Losing one, or a change in how it buys and stocks Zebra products, would have an outsized effect on reported sales.
  • Acquisition integration risk — Zebra has grown through acquisitions, including Elo in 2025. Retaining the customers, distributors and staff of an acquired business is not guaranteed, and integration can distract management and absorb capital.
  • Geopolitical instability — The company cites regional conflicts, terrorism and war, specifically the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions, as sources of market instability that can disrupt supply chains and demand.
  • Dependence on regulated wireless spectrum — Zebra's wireless devices depend on government-allocated radio spectrum. Changes to spectrum availability or regulation in any country can force product redesigns or restrict where products can be sold.

客户集中度

主要客户占营收的59%

In fiscal 2025 three distributors accounted for 29%, 15% and 15% of net sales respectively, about 59% combined. A change in how any one of them buys and stocks Zebra products affects results directly.

看多理由

Buyers argue that scanning, tracking and mobile-computing hardware is becoming more embedded in retail, healthcare and logistics workflows every year, that the Elo acquisition adds a new self-service growth avenue, and that a business with this much recurring supplies revenue deserves a steadier multiple than its cyclical history suggests.

看空理由

Sellers worry that hardware margins stay under pressure from capable competitors, that nearly six in ten dollars of revenue flow through just three distributors who can squeeze pricing, and that the next slowdown in retail or logistics capital spending will hit unit volumes as hard as the last one did.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$5.85B

最近12个月(截至2026/7/4)

净利润

$539M

最近12个月(截至2026/7/4)

自由现金流

$831M

股东权益合计

$3.59B

负债合计

$4.91B

流动比率

0.52

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

3.35

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形被高估

公允价值

$246.74

当前价格

$377.60

安全边际

-53.0%

公允价值区间

$160.38 - $333.11

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$411.45
现金流折现法(DCF):$195.73
市盈率法(P/E):$180.42
格雷厄姆成长公式:$81.61
盈利能力价值(EPV):$105.08
合理市净率(P/B):$83.91
股息折现模型(戈登模型):数据不足,无法计算
P/FFO(运营资金):$204.27
周期中段收益:$414.98
市销率法(P/S):$620.09
分析师共识:强力买入 (19B / 6H / 0S)
最近财报超预期:+42.86%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

34.12

ROE

11.7%

市净率(P/B)

5.14

P/FCF

19.54

毛利率

49.6%

ROIC

14.6%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

14.6%

WACC

11.4%

ROIC − WACC

+3.2 pp

ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(17)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 15.78%
  • ROIC 14.6%
  • Gross Margin 49.6%
  • P/FCF 19.54
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 14.7%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 15.1%
  • Analyst Consensus 76% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 13.0%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.82
  • Share Dilution -1.2%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

未通过(7)

  • P/B Ratio 5.14
  • Current Ratio
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 3.9%
  • Net Margin Trend 9.2% vs 10.6%

不可用(3)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-评分

5/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.82

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-1.2%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. William J. BurnsCEO & Director58
Mr. Nathan Andrew WintersChief Financial Officer45
Ms. Cristen L. Kogl J.D.Chief Legal Officer, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary59
Mr. Richard Edward HudsonChief Revenue Officer57
Ms. Colleen M. O'SullivanSenior VP & Chief Accounting Officer58
Mr. Tom BianculliChief Technology Officer-
Mr. Matt AusmanChief Information Officer-
Mr. Michael A. Steele C.F.A., IRCVice President of Investor Relations52
Ms. Therese Van RyneSenior Director of External Communications-
Ms. Melissa Luff LoizidesChief People Officer-

审计风险

1

董事会风险

9

薪酬风险

2

股东权利风险

8

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-12

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-08-04

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-08-04

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for ZBRA, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 5/13/2026POSITIVE
    This Zebra Technologies Analyst Turns Bullish; Here Are Top 5 Upgrades For Wednesday

    Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA) has received a bullish upgrade from a top Wall Street analyst, accompanied by an increased price target. This positive sentiment suggests renewed confidence in the company's future performance and market position. Investors should note that this upgrade is part of a broader trend of analyst reassessments, with other stocks like ST, AKAM, ITGR, and ARW also seeing positive analyst attention. The specific details of ZBRA's upgrade, including the new price target and the rationale behind the analyst's optimism, are crucial for assessing potential investment opportunities.

via Markets Gazette