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Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Fair Value
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureUnited States

Fundamental

71

Price

$516.55

Market Cap

$3.70T

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Microsoft sells software and cloud computing to businesses and consumers. Its products span office productivity software, business applications, operating systems, video games, and — its largest growth engine — Azure, a rented computing platform that lets other companies run their own software and AI models on Microsoft's data centres instead of building their own.

How it makes money

Most revenue is recurring: Office, many business applications and parts of Windows are sold as subscriptions billed monthly or annually, and Azure is billed by the amount of computing capacity a customer actually consumes. This makes revenue far more predictable than a company that sells one-off licences or hardware, and gives Microsoft visibility into future revenue through signed but not yet delivered cloud contracts.

Revenue by segment

Productivity and Business Processes42.2%

Office 365, LinkedIn, and Dynamics business applications — mostly subscription revenue billed to companies and individual users.

Intelligent Cloud41.5%

Azure cloud computing and server products. The fastest-growing segment and the one most tied to AI infrastructure spending.

More Personal Computing16.3%

Windows licensing, Surface devices, gaming (Xbox) and Bing search advertising — the slowest-growing segment, tied to PC and console sales.

Competitive moat

Switching costs · Wide

Businesses run their email, documents, identity management and internal tools on Microsoft's stack, and migrating any one of these to a competitor requires retraining staff and rebuilding integrations across the whole company. Azure adds a second layer of lock-in once a customer's applications are built to run on it. The result is a customer base that rarely leaves even when a rival product is technically comparable.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Subscription software revenue is fairly steady because it renews automatically and businesses rarely cancel core tools like email or Office. Azure and PC-related revenue are more sensitive to the economic cycle, since cloud spending can be optimised down in a downturn and PC sales track corporate refresh budgets and consumer discretionary spending.

Key risks

  • Intense cloud competition — Azure competes against Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, both well-capitalised and investing heavily in the same AI infrastructure. Price competition and customer negotiating power in this market can compress margins.
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny — Microsoft's size and bundling practices across Office, Windows, Teams and cloud services draw sustained antitrust attention in the US, EU and elsewhere, which can force product changes or result in fines.
  • Heavy AI infrastructure spending — Microsoft is committing very large sums to data centres and chips to meet AI demand. If that demand grows more slowly than the capacity being built, the return on this spending falls short.
  • Cybersecurity incidents — As the operator of identity, email and cloud infrastructure for a large share of the world's businesses, a serious security breach involving Microsoft's own systems would damage trust across its entire customer base at once.

The case for

Buyers argue that Microsoft's grip on business software gives it a captive customer base to sell Azure and AI tools into, that Intelligent Cloud growth still has years to run as more computing shifts off-premises, and that recurring subscription revenue makes the business unusually resilient through downturns.

The case against

Sellers fear that AI infrastructure spending is outrunning proven demand, that antitrust pressure could eventually force apart the bundling that keeps customers locked in, and that Azure's growth rate must keep decelerating simply because the base it is growing from is now so large.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 19, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 20.0Score: 69Market cap: $2.69T

AWS is Azure's primary rival for the same enterprise cloud infrastructure and platform budgets, with the two together taking roughly half of global cloud spending.

P/E: 21.5Score: 58Market cap: $400.95B

Oracle sells database, enterprise applications and OCI cloud capacity to the same large corporate IT departments Microsoft targets with SQL Server, Dynamics 365 and Azure.

P/E: 20.9Score: 73Market cap: $187.04B

Salesforce is the leading rival to Microsoft Dynamics 365 in cloud CRM and customer-service software, and both now sell AI agents on top of that same install base.

P/E: 19.5Score: 58Market cap: $207.90B

IBM competes for the same hybrid-cloud, middleware and enterprise IT-services contracts with large regulated customers, through Red Hat and its consulting arm.

SAP SESAPGF
P/E: 27.6Score: 64Market cap: $212.58B

SAP competes directly with Microsoft Dynamics 365 for enterprise resource planning deployments, especially among mid-size and large European manufacturers.

Alphabet Inc. (Google)GOOGL

Google competes with Microsoft on three fronts at once: Google Cloud against Azure, Google Workspace against Microsoft 365, and Google Search against Bing for advertising revenue.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$331.84B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$133.75B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$66.99B

Total Equity

$442.39B

Total Liabilities

$315.99B

Current Ratio

1.23

Interest Coverage

50.88

Debt/EBITDA

0.66

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseFairly Valued

Fair Value

$444.02

Current Price

$516.55

Margin of Safety

-16.3%

Fair Value Range

$291.09 - $596.95

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$577.26
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$290.61
Earnings multiple (P/E):$434.72
Graham growth formula:$684.10
Earnings power value (EPV):$159.17
Justified P/B:$274.38
Dividend discount (Gordon):$58.35
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not enough data to compute it
Mid-cycle earnings:$403.22
Revenue multiple:$227.63
Analyst Consensus:Strong Buy (64B / 5H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+9.53%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

28.57

ROE

30.2%

P/B Ratio

8.61

P/FCF

56.86

Gross Margin

67.9%

ROIC

20.8%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

20.8%

WACC

10.1%

ROIC − WACC

+10.8 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (21)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 13.39%
  • Price CAGR 23.20%
  • ROIC 20.8%
  • Gross Margin 67.9%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 46.8%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 33.2%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 14.6%
  • Analyst Consensus 93% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 6.4%
  • PEG Ratio 1.58
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.37
  • Share Dilution -0.2%
  • Net Margin Trend 40.3% vs 36.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Failed (6)

  • P/FCF 56.86
  • P/B Ratio 8.61
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)

Unavailable (1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.37

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-0.2%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Satya NadellaChairman & CEO58
Mr. Bradford L. Smith LCAPresident & Vice Chairman66
Ms. Amy E. HoodExecutive VP & CFO53
Mr. Takeshi NumotoExecutive VP & Chief Marketing Officer54
Mr. Judson B. AlthoffExecutive VP & CEO of Commercial Business52
Ms. Carolina Dybeck HappeExecutive VP & COO53
Ms. Alice L. JollaCorporate VP & Chief Accounting Officer59
Mr. Matthew KernerCTO & Corporate VP of Worldwide Sales and Solutions-
Jonathan NeilsonVice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. Jonathan M. PalmerCorporate Vice President & Chief Legal Officer-

Audit Risk

9

Board Risk

7

Compensation Risk

5

Shareholder Rights Risk

2

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-07-29

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-04-29

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-09-02

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for MSFT, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 1d agoPOSITIVE
    Perché le azioni Microsoft sono salite del 2% mercoledì?

    Microsoft shares climbed approximately 2% on Wednesday following Piper Sandler's upgrade, which raised the price target to $610 from $550 while reiterating an 'Overweight' rating. This new target suggests an 18% upside potential from current trading levels, driven by elevated estimates and an expanded enterprise value/operating cash flow multiple. The brokerage firm's increased confidence stems from Microsoft's commercial cloud business prospects, particularly within Microsoft 365. The stock also benefited from broader market gains, spurred by US economic data indicating cooling inflation, which pushed Treasury yields lower and boosted the S&P 500.

  • 2d agoPOSITIVE
    Microsoft’s stock is on track to post its biggest quarterly gain in 28 years

    Microsoft's stock is poised for its largest quarterly gain in 28 years, driven by its prominent position in the AI sector and a broader market "flight to quality." This performance highlights investor confidence in Microsoft's strategic positioning and its ability to capitalize on emerging technologies. The sustained demand for AI-driven solutions is translating into significant shareholder value, making MSFT a standout performer in the current market environment. Investors are likely to see this trend continue as AI adoption accelerates across industries.

  • 5d agoPOSITIVE
    Microsoft VP: SaaS isn’t dying. It’s becoming the operating system for AI agents—and that changes everything

    Microsoft's VP asserts that Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) is evolving into the foundational operating system for AI agents, a paradigm shift that redefines its role in enterprise workflows. Contrary to expectations of a 'SaaS crash,' the technology is proving resilient and is now instrumental in eliminating human middleware, thereby streamlining operations. This evolution suggests a robust future for SaaS platforms, particularly those integrated with AI, promising enhanced efficiency and new avenues for innovation. Investors should note this strategic pivot, which could unlock significant growth potential for companies leading in AI-driven SaaS solutions.

  • 6d agoPOSITIVE
    Microsoft’s stock has roared back to life, closing at its highest level of the year

    Microsoft Corporation's stock has experienced a significant rebound, reaching its highest point of the year. Despite an initial sluggish start to the year, investor sentiment has shifted positively, largely driven by the company's compelling artificial intelligence narrative. This resurgence suggests that the market is increasingly valuing Microsoft's AI initiatives, potentially signaling future growth and innovation. Investors are likely to view this upward trend as a strong indicator of the company's strategic direction and its ability to capitalize on emerging technologies, reinforcing confidence in its long-term prospects.

  • 8d agoPOSITIVE
    Microsoft has ‘clearly turned the corner.’ How its stock can chart more gains.

    Stifel analyst Mark Schroeder has upgraded Microsoft's rating, citing the company's strong position to monetize its extensive computing power. This optimistic outlook suggests that Microsoft is poised for further stock appreciation, driven by its strategic advantages in leveraging its technological infrastructure. The analyst's confidence implies that recent performance and future growth prospects are robust, potentially attracting more investor interest and capital into the stock.

  • 10d agoPOSITIVE
    This is the ‘most underappreciated’ driver for Microsoft’s business, according to one analyst

    An analyst suggests that investors are overlooking a key growth driver for Microsoft: its software business. While the company's cloud-computing segment, Azure, is well-recognized for its revenue potential, the software division's contributions may be underestimated. This perspective implies that Microsoft's overall valuation could be higher if the market fully appreciates the ongoing strength and future prospects of its software products. Investors may want to re-evaluate Microsoft's diversified revenue streams beyond just cloud services.

via Markets Gazette