Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)
OvervaluedFundamental
45
Price
$392.10
Market Cap
$318.95B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Palo Alto Networks builds the systems that companies use to stop network intrusions, protect cloud workloads, and give security teams one console instead of a dozen. It started by selling firewall appliances that inspect traffic entering a company's network, then expanded into protecting cloud infrastructure and using AI to spot and respond to attacks across a company's whole environment. Its pitch to customers is consolidation: replace a patchwork of point security tools from different vendors with one connected platform.
How it makes money
Most revenue is recurring: subscription and support fees for software and cloud services, sold on multi-year contracts and recognized over the life of the agreement, made up about four-fifths of fiscal 2025 revenue. The rest is upfront hardware and license sales, mainly the firewall appliances that still anchor many customer relationships. Palo Alto's stated strategy, "platformization," bundles products at a discount to win the whole security budget rather than one line item, trading near-term margin for a larger long-term contract.
Revenue by segment
Cloud security, SASE, AI-driven security operations software and the support contracts attached to them, billed as recurring multi-year subscriptions.
Firewall hardware appliances and software licenses, including SD-WAN and virtual firewall products, sold upfront rather than as a subscription.
Competitive moat
Switching costs · NarrowOnce a security operations team has wired its firewalls, cloud sensors and analytics into one Palo Alto console, replacing any single piece means re-training staff and re-testing detection rules across the whole stack. That inertia helps retention, but the cybersecurity market has several credible full-stack rivals and large customers routinely run more than one vendor at once.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalSecurity budgets are treated as close to non-discretionary by most large enterprises, since a breach is costly and boards now expect visible investment in defense. But spending is not immune to the economy: deals can be delayed or shrunk in a downturn, and growth depends on convincing customers to consolidate tools rather than simply add new ones.
Key risks
- Heavy reliance on channel partners — Most sales go through resellers, distributors and system integrators rather than direct to customers, so a partner's underperformance or a disrupted channel relationship can limit reach into a market.
- Intensifying price and feature competition — Rivals compete aggressively on price and increasingly bundle security features into broader cloud or productivity suites, pressuring Palo Alto to keep discounting through its platformization bundles to win deals.
- Complexity of integrating many acquisitions — Growth has come partly through acquiring other security companies; folding their products, engineers and customers into one platform carries execution risk and can distract from core development.
- Exposure to customer credit and macro risk — Multi-year subscription contracts depend on customers' ability and willingness to keep paying; a weaker economy or a customer's financial distress can shrink renewals and delay new sales.
- Geopolitical exposure through Israel operations — A meaningful part of engineering and operations sits in Israel, so regional political instability or conflict can disrupt product development and staff availability.
The case for
Buyers argue that platformization is working, since large customers keep consolidating security spend onto Palo Alto's stack, that subscription revenue now dominates the mix and compounds predictably, and that AI-driven security operations gives it a credible answer to a threat landscape that is itself increasingly automated.
The case against
Sellers fear that platformization is really discounting dressed up as strategy, that well-funded rivals in cloud security and endpoint protection can match the bundle at a lower price, and that a large enterprise customer base makes Palo Alto's growth rate structurally harder to sustain as the easy consolidation deals run out.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on September 19, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Named by Palo Alto Networks in its 10-K, Fortinet sells FortiGate next-generation firewalls and a converged network-security platform to the same enterprise and mid-market buyers, competing deal by deal on firewall refreshes and SASE.
Named in the 10-K, Check Point's Infinity architecture covers network firewalls, cloud and email security for the same enterprise security budgets, with a particularly strong installed base in Europe and Israel.
Named in the 10-K, CrowdStrike's Falcon platform competes head-on with Palo Alto's Cortex line for endpoint protection, XDR and security-operations spending in the same large enterprises.
Named in the 10-K, Zscaler sells cloud-delivered zero-trust access and secure web gateways that displace the same perimeter firewall and SASE budgets Palo Alto's Prisma Access targets.
Named first among large technology companies in the 10-K, Cisco bundles firewalls, Duo identity and Splunk-based security operations into the network contracts it already holds with the same enterprise customers.
Named in the 10-K, Microsoft bundles Defender, Entra and Sentinel into enterprise licensing agreements, so its security stack competes for the same endpoint, identity and SIEM budgets without a separate purchase.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$11.48B
Trailing 12 months (through 7/31/2026)
Net Income
$307M
Trailing 12 months (through 7/31/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$4.11B
Total Equity
$27.49B
Total Liabilities
$20.97B
Current Ratio
0.87
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
1.66
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$275.58
Current Price
$392.10
Margin of Safety
-42.3%
Fair Value Range
$179.13 - $372.03
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
993.27
ROE
1.1%
P/B Ratio
11.82
P/FCF
79.02
Gross Margin
70.4%
ROIC
1.4%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
1.4%
WACC
9.7%
ROIC − WACC
-8.3 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (13)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 34.15%
- Gross Margin 70.4%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 6.1%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Revenue Growth 5Y 21.9%
- Analyst Consensus 78% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 4.2%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 14.83
Failed (11)
- ROIC 1.4%
- P/FCF 79.02
- P/B Ratio 11.82
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- ROE 1.7%
- Share Dilution 8.3%
- Net Margin Trend 2.7% vs 12.3%
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Unavailable (3)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Nikesh Arora C.F.A. | Chairman & CEO | 57 |
| Mr. William D. Jenkins Jr. | President | 59 |
| Mr. Dipak Golechha | Executive VP & CFO | 51 |
| Mr. Lee Klarich | Executive VP, Chief Product Officer, CTO & Director | 50 |
| Mr. Yuming Mao | Founder & Chief Architect | - |
| Mr. Josh D. Paul | Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 49 |
| Ms. Meerah Rajavel | Chief Information Officer | 53 |
| Mr. Hamza Fodderwala | Senior VP of Investor Relations & Strategic Finance | - |
| Mr. Bruce R. Byrd | Executive VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | - |
| Nicole Hockin | Vice President of Global Communications | - |
Audit Risk
1
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
10
Shareholder Rights Risk
9
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-09-10
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-06-03
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-01
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for PANW, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 1d agoNEUTRALPalo Alto Networks’ Nikesh Arora is building a defense against the dark side of AI
Nikesh Arora, CEO of Palo Alto Networks, is positioning the company as a key player in addressing the cybersecurity challenges posed by artificial intelligence. The article highlights Arora's role as an advisor to CEOs navigating the 'AI reckoning' in cybersecurity. While this indicates strong leadership and strategic vision, the news itself is more of a commentary on the company's positioning and market trends rather than a direct financial event. Investors will monitor future product developments and earnings for concrete impacts.
- 29d agoNEGATIVEPalo Alto supera le attese sugli utili: azioni -8% — ecco perché
Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW) shares tumbled 8.3% despite the cybersecurity firm reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter fiscal revenue and adjusted earnings, alongside an optimistic outlook for fiscal year 2027. The company posted Q4 fiscal revenue of $3.41 billion, a 34% increase year-over-year, surpassing Wall Street's $3.35 billion expectation. Adjusted earnings were $1.02 per share, exceeding analyst estimates of 98 cents. However, Palo Alto's GAAP results were weaker, showing a loss of 35 cents per share for the quarter, contrasting with a profit of 36 cents in the prior year period. This divergence between adjusted and GAAP figures likely spooked investors, leading to the stock's decline.
- 9/1/2026NEGATIVEPalo Alto Networks’ stock falls despite strong AI cybersecurity demand
Despite robust demand for AI cybersecurity solutions, Palo Alto Networks Inc. saw its stock decline following an earnings beat. CEO Nikesh Arora highlighted 'durable tailwinds' from enterprise cyber threats and AI adoption, suggesting a strong market position. However, the market's reaction indicates that the positive outlook and earnings performance were not enough to offset other investor concerns or potentially pre-existing expectations. Investors will be watching for further clarification on the factors influencing the stock's price movement despite the company's strategic advantages.
- 9/1/2026POSITIVEPalo Alto Networks’ stock climbs as demand for AI cybersecurity powers an earnings beat
Palo Alto Networks Inc. reported an earnings beat, driven by robust demand for its AI-powered cybersecurity solutions. CEO Nikesh Arora highlighted 'durable tailwinds' from enterprise cyber threats and the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence, which are fueling growth for the company's platform. This strong performance suggests that Palo Alto Networks is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing need for advanced security measures in an AI-driven landscape. Investors will likely view this as a positive indicator of sustained revenue growth and market leadership.
- 7/1/2026NEUTRALCEO of $248 billion cybersecurity company says workers are about to face a ‘Darwinian moment’ thanks to AI: Evolve or get cut
Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora has issued a stark warning regarding the impact of Artificial Intelligence on the workforce, stating that 90% of employees currently lack sufficient AI savviness. Arora described the upcoming period as a 'Darwinian moment' for workers, implying that those who do not adapt and acquire AI skills face potential career obsolescence. This statement, while not directly impacting the company's current financials, highlights a significant industry-wide trend that could influence future talent acquisition, employee training strategies, and operational efficiency within the cybersecurity sector and beyond.
- 6/3/2026NEGATIVE3 reasons why Palo Alto Networks’ stock fell despite upbeat earnings
Palo Alto Networks Inc. experienced a stock decline despite reporting positive earnings, a situation attributed by analysts to several factors. Profit-taking by investors appears to be a primary driver, suggesting that recent gains may have been realized. Additionally, the timing of contributions from artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives and adjustments in the company's reporting conventions are cited as reasons for the market's muted reaction. Investors will be closely monitoring future reports for clearer indications of AI's impact and the stability of the new reporting structure.
via Markets Gazette