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Dropbox, Inc. (DBX)

Fair bewertet
TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureUnited States

Fundamental

69

Kurs

$34.13

Marktkapitalisierung

$7.10B

Teil 1 · Was das Unternehmen wert ist

Übersicht

Dropbox sells cloud storage and file-sharing subscriptions: customers pay a monthly or annual fee to keep files synced across devices and shared with others, rather than buying storage as a one-off purchase. Around the core storage product it has added e-signature (Dropbox Sign), document tracking (DocSend), form creation (FormSwift) and an AI-powered search tool (Dash), aiming to keep individuals, freelancers and small businesses inside one subscription instead of losing them to separate point solutions.

Wie das Geld verdient wird

Revenue comes almost entirely from subscriptions billed to individuals, freelancers and small business teams rather than from large enterprise contracts, and the company reports it as a single business rather than in separate segments. Because storage itself has become a commodity that Microsoft and Google give away bundled into Office 365 and Google Workspace, Dropbox's ability to keep or raise prices depends on customers valuing its added tools enough to pay for a stand-alone product.

Wettbewerbsvorteil

Kein erkennbarer Vorteil · Keiner

Dropbox itself states that competitors with greater name recognition and larger user bases can bundle a broader range of products and undercut it on price, and that less expensive, bundled alternatives have already hurt its user growth. Files stored in Dropbox create some switching friction, but not enough to stop paying users from plateauing as Microsoft and Google give storage away for free inside suites customers already buy.

Was die Nachfrage antreibt

Mäßig zyklisch

Demand for Dropbox's core service is fairly steady — files and documents need to be stored and shared regardless of the economic cycle — but paying users have plateaued at around 18 million as free, bundled alternatives from Microsoft and Google absorb new demand. Growth now depends more on convincing existing customers to add tools like e-signature or AI search than on winning new storage customers, and small-business customers can also cut software spending in a downturn.

Wichtigste Risiken

  • Competition from larger, bundled providers — The company states that competitors such as Microsoft, Google and Amazon have greater name recognition, larger user bases and the ability to bundle storage with broader product suites, and that less expensive, bundled offerings have already hurt user growth.
  • Paying user growth has stalled — Paying users have plateaued at around 18 million, and fiscal 2025 revenue actually declined slightly year over year, reflecting weaker performance in Teams and reduced investment in FormSwift.
  • Currency exposure — About half of revenue is generated outside the United States and 27% of sales are denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, so a stronger dollar reduces reported revenue relative to costs.

Kundenkonzentration

Die größten Kunden machen 1 % des Umsatzes aus

No single customer accounted for more than 1% of revenue in 2025, 2024 or 2023: revenue is spread across millions of individual and small-business subscribers rather than concentrated in a few large accounts.

Die Argumente dafür

Buyers argue that Dropbox's high operating margins and cash generation let it return capital to shareholders even with flat revenue, that expanding beyond storage into e-signature, document tracking and AI search gives it more to sell to an existing base with almost no customer concentration, and that a stabilized paying-user count of 18 million provides a steady subscription foundation.

Die Argumente dagegen

Sellers worry that free, bundled storage inside Microsoft 365 and Google Workspace has commoditized Dropbox's core product and capped paying-user growth for years, that revenue actually declined slightly in 2025, and that newer tools like Dash AI have yet to prove they can offset churn in the core storage business.

Written by the editors, published on 18. August 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 18. September 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 28.6Score: 72Market cap: $3.70T

OneDrive and SharePoint, bundled into Microsoft 365, target the same business file storage and collaboration budget Dropbox sells into, and Dropbox names Microsoft first among its competitors.

P/E: 38.2Score: 70Market cap: $4.90T

iCloud paid storage tiers capture the consumer and prosumer subscription revenue Dropbox relies on, particularly among Mac and iPhone users who would otherwise pay Dropbox for sync across devices.

P/E: 13.4Score: 68Market cap: $92.99B

Adobe competes with Dropbox both in document workflow and, through Adobe Acrobat Sign, directly against Dropbox Sign for electronic signature subscriptions.

P/E: 40.9Score: 73Market cap: $12.89B

DocuSign is the reference product in electronic signature, the market Dropbox entered with Dropbox Sign and where the two chase the same contract-signing customers.

Box, Inc.BOX

Dropbox names Box in its 10-K as its competitor for large-enterprise cloud storage deployments, where both sell content collaboration and governance to the same IT buyers.

Alphabet Inc. (Google)GOOGL

Google Drive and Google Workspace compete for the same individual and small-business subscribers who pay for online file storage, sharing and document collaboration.

Bilanz & Liquidität

Umsatz

$2.53B

Letzte 12 Monate (bis 30.6.2026)

Nettogewinn

$443M

Letzte 12 Monate (bis 30.6.2026)

Freier Cashflow

$931M

Gesamtes Eigenkapital

$-1.80B

Gesamtverbindlichkeiten

$4.64B

Current Ratio

1.07

Zinsdeckungsgrad

-

Schulden/EBITDA

0.85

Gewinn je Aktie

Umsatz & Nettogewinn

Freier Cashflow

Ertragsaufschlüsselung

Historische Aufstellung

Margen im Zeitverlauf

Verschuldung im Zeitverlauf

Wie schwer die Schulden wiegen

Wachstumsraster

Wachstum — Umsatz

Innerer-Wert-Schätzung

Allgemeiner FallFair bewertet

Innerer Wert

$40.59

Aktueller Kurs

$34.13

Sicherheitsmarge

+15.9%

Innerer-Wert-Spanne

$26.38 - $54.79

Streubreite zwischen den verwendeten Bewertungsmethoden, kein statistisch kalibriertes Konfidenzintervall.

Bewertungsmethoden

Kursziel der Analysten:$31.80
Diskontierter Cashflow (DCF):$81.43
Gewinnmultiplikator (P/E):$18.91
Graham-Wachstumsformel:$29.47
Ertragskraftwert (EPV):$29.36
Gerechtfertigtes P/B:Nicht genügend Daten zur Berechnung
Dividendendiskontierung (Gordon):Nicht genügend Daten zur Berechnung
P/FFO, Funds from Operations:Nicht genügend Daten zur Berechnung
Gewinn im Zyklusmittel:$3.13
Umsatzmultiplikator:$56.97
Analystenkonsens:Halten (1B / 7H / 8S)
Letzte Gewinnüberraschung:+0.68%

Bewertungskennzahlen

P/E-Verhältnis

18.81

ROE

-28.3%

P/B-Verhältnis

-

P/FCF

10.35

Bruttomarge

79.7%

ROIC

32.3%

Rentabilitäts-Radar

Wertschöpfung (Wettbewerbsvorteil)

ROIC

32.3%

WACC

7.3%

ROIC − WACC

+25.1 pp

Der ROIC übersteigt die Kapitalkosten: Das Unternehmen schafft Wert für die Aktionäre.

Fundamentalanalyse-Kriterien

Bestanden (16)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 6.66%
  • ROIC 32.3%
  • Gross Margin 79.7%
  • P/FCF 10.35
  • Operating Margin 26.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 5.7%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 5.4%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.21
  • Share Dilution -15.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Nicht bestanden (5)

  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • ROE -36.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 6% Buy
  • Net Margin Trend 17.5% vs 19.2%

Nicht verfügbar (6)

  • P/B Ratio NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Gemischte Signale: Einige Bereiche bedürfen Aufmerksamkeit

score
criteria

Gewinnqualität

2.21

Hohe Qualität: Gewinne durch Cashflow gedeckt

Aktienverwässerung

-15.4%

Aktienrückkäufe. Aktionärsfreundlich

Institutionelle Beteiligungen

Unternehmensführung

Führungsteam

NamePositionAlter
Mr. Andrew W. HoustonCo-Founder, Co-CEO & Chairman42
Mr. Ashraf AlkarmiCo-CEO & Director46
Mr. Ross TennenbaumChief Financial Officer47
Mr. Ali DasdanChief Technology Officer55
Mr. William YoonChief Legal Officer46
Ms. Sarah Elizabeth SchubachChief Accounting Officer-
Ms. Saman AsheerChief Communications Officer-
Mr. Boon LaiChief Marketing Officer-
Ms. Melanie RosenwasserChief People Officer-
Mr. Eric WebsterChief Business Officer47

Prüfungsrisiko

4

Vorstandsrisiko

8

Vergütungsrisiko

8

Aktionärsrechterisiko

10

Teil 2 · Der Preis und der Einstiegszeitpunkt

Dieser Teil sagt nicht, ob das Unternehmen etwas taugt: Er hilft bei der Wahl des Kaufzeitpunkts, nachdem die Fundamentaldaten überzeugt haben. Enthalten: technische Analyse, Potenzial, historische Drawdowns, Gamma-Exposure.

Dokumente

  • Jahresbericht (10-K)

    Ein jährlicher Überblick über das Geschäft, die Finanzergebnisse und die Risiken des Unternehmens.

    Eingereicht am 2026-02-20

    Dokument ansehen
  • Quartalsbericht (10-Q)

    Ein Update zur finanziellen Entwicklung der letzten drei Monate.

    Eingereicht am 2026-08-07

    Dokument ansehen
  • Ad-hoc-Meldung (8-K)

    Eine Mitteilung über ein wichtiges Ereignis, etwa einen Führungswechsel oder eine bedeutende Ankündigung.

    Eingereicht am 2026-08-06

    Dokument ansehen

via SEC EDGAR

Ertragshistorie

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for DBX, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3/9/2026NEGATIVE
    Is Dropbox Stock a Buy or Sell After the CEO Sold Shares Worth $4.2 Million?

    Dropbox CEO Drew Houston offloaded 150,000 shares of the cloud storage company's stock for approximately $4.2 million. This significant insider selling, disclosed in a recent SEC filing, raises concerns among investors about the executive's confidence in the company's near-term prospects. While the sale represents a small fraction of Houston's total holdings, such large transactions can sometimes signal a lack of positive catalysts or potential headwinds ahead. Investors often interpret insider selling as a bearish signal, prompting a re-evaluation of their positions.

via Markets Gazette