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Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)

Juste valeur
IndustrialsRailroadsCanada

Fondamental

52

Prix

$85.10

Capitalisation boursière

$76.76B

Partie 1 · Ce que vaut l'entreprise

Vue d'ensemble

Canadian Pacific Kansas City runs a single freight railway connecting Canada, the United States and Mexico under one network — the only one of its kind since the 2023 merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern. It hauls bulk commodities such as grain, coal and potash, merchandise freight like forest products, chemicals, metals and automotive parts, and intermodal containers, moving goods over track it owns rather than shares with competitors.

Comment l'entreprise gagne de l'argent

Revenue comes from freight rates charged per carload or container, which vary by commodity, distance and contract terms; some grain traffic in western Canada is capped by a government-set revenue formula rather than freely negotiated. Because the railway owns its own track, most operating costs are fixed regardless of volume, so profit is highly sensitive to how much freight actually moves over the network rather than to price alone.

Chiffre d'affaires par segment

Merchandise46%

Forest products, energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals, consumer products and automotive parts — the largest and most varied freight category. Share of freight revenue.

Bulk36%

Grain, coal, potash and fertilizers moved in unit trains — commodities produced in large, predictable volumes. Share of freight revenue.

Intermodal18%

Containers moved between ports, terminals and customers, competing directly with long-haul trucking. Share of freight revenue.

Avantage concurrentiel

Avantage de coûts · Large

Building a second transcontinental railway alongside an existing one is not economically rational, so CPKC's track competes against trucking more than against another railway on most routes. Owning the only single-line network connecting Canada, the US and Mexico after the Kansas City Southern merger gives it routes competitors cannot simply build to match.

Ce qui stimule la demande

Modérément cyclique

Demand is a mix: grain and potash volumes follow harvests and global agricultural demand more than the economic cycle, while merchandise freight — automotive parts, metals, chemicals — and intermodal containers move with industrial production and consumer spending. That blend cushions the network against a single downturn, but currency swings and fuel prices still move margins on every shipment.

Principaux risques

  • Dependence on key suppliers — The company depends on a limited number of suppliers for core railway equipment and materials, and disruption within the broader supply chain — ports, terminals, other railways — can hurt operating efficiency and raise costs.
  • Fuel price volatility — Fuel is a significant share of operating costs. A fuel cost adjustment program mitigates but does not eliminate exposure to sharp price swings from supply shortages or geopolitical disruption.
  • Three-currency exposure — Operating across Canada, the US and Mexico exposes results to swings in the Canadian dollar, US dollar and Mexican peso, and debt taken on for the Kansas City Southern acquisition limits financial flexibility.
  • Merger integration risk — The company may fail to fully realize the cost savings, growth opportunities and synergies expected from the Kansas City Southern merger, and remains subject to continuing regulatory obligations from that transaction.

Concentration des clients

The company states that for both 2025 and 2024 its revenues and operations were not dependent on any major customer — freight volume is spread across many shippers and commodities.

Les arguments en faveur

Buyers argue that being the only railway with a single-line route from Canada through the US to Mexico gives CPKC network advantages competitors cannot replicate, and that a freight mix spread across bulk, merchandise and intermodal, with no dependence on any single customer, makes revenue more resilient than a typical industrial company's.

Les arguments contre

Sellers fear that the debt taken on for the Kansas City Southern merger, exposure to three currencies, and dependence on diesel fuel leave margins vulnerable to macro shocks outside the company's control, and that realizing the promised synergies from combining two railways takes longer or costs more than planned.

Written by the editors, published on 18 août 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 18 septembre 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 22.0Score: 77Market cap: $162.84B

The largest western US railroad, competing head-on for cross-border Mexican traffic through the Laredo and Eagle Pass gateways and for automotive, grain and intermodal freight in the US Midwest and Gulf.

P/E: 26.9Score: 68Market cap: $86.97B

Eastern US Class I railroad that competes with CPKC for chemicals, automotive and intermodal traffic moving between the Gulf Coast, the Southeast and the Midwest interchange points.

P/E: 26.4Score: 68Market cap: $70.31B

The other eastern US Class I railroad, competing for the same merchandise and intermodal shippers between Chicago, the Gulf and the Atlantic ports that CPKC reaches through its Kansas City Southern network.

Canadian National Railway CompanyCNI

The other Canadian transcontinental Class I railroad, competing for the same grain, intermodal, potash and forest-products shippers across the Prairies and for access to the ports of Vancouver and Montreal.

BNSF Railway CompanyNot tracked

Owned by Berkshire Hathaway, it runs the other big western network and bids for the same Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest grain, coal, energy and intermodal customers that CPKC serves south of the border.

Ferrocarril Mexicano, S.A. de C.V. (Ferromex)Not tracked

The main Mexican rail network and the direct rival of CPKC's Mexican lines for domestic freight and for the automotive and intermodal flows moving between central Mexico and the US border.

Bilan & Liquidités

Chiffre d'affaires

$15.45B

12 derniers mois (au 30/06/2026)

Résultat net

$3.86B

12 derniers mois (au 30/06/2026)

Flux de trésorerie libre

-

Capitaux propres totaux

$46.83B

Passif total

$39.12B

Ratio de liquidité général

0.59

Couverture des intérêts

-

Dette/EBITDA

3.05

Bénéfice par action

Chiffre d'affaires & Résultat net

Flux de trésorerie libre

Décomposition du résultat

État historique

Marges dans le temps

La dette dans le temps

Le poids de la dette

Grille de la croissance

Croissance — Chiffre d'affaires

Estimation de la juste valeur

Cas généralJustement valorisé

Juste valeur

$72.46

Prix actuel

$85.10

Marge de sécurité

-17.5%

Fourchette de juste valeur

$53.11 - $91.80

Écart entre les méthodes de valorisation utilisées, pas un intervalle de confiance calibré statistiquement.

Méthodes d'estimation

Objectif de cours des analystes:$99.04
Flux de trésorerie actualisés (DCF):$57.21
Multiple de résultat (P/E):$65.20
Formule de croissance de Graham:$47.73
Valeur de la capacité bénéficiaire (EPV):$58.36
P/B justifié:$47.98
Actualisation des dividendes (Gordon):$19.38
P/FFO, les fonds provenant de l'exploitation:Données insuffisantes pour le calculer
Bénéfices de milieu de cycle:$152.95
Multiple sur le chiffre d'affaires:$49.53
Consensus des analystes:Achat fort (30B / 6H / 0S)
Dernière surprise sur les résultats:-0.36%

Indicateurs de valorisation

Ratio P/E

19.74

ROE

8.8%

Ratio P/B

1.57

P/FCF

-

Marge brute

-

ROIC

5.4%

Radar de rentabilité

Création de valeur (avantage concurrentiel)

ROIC

5.4%

WACC

7.0%

ROIC − WACC

-1.7 pp

Le ROIC est inférieur au coût du capital — l'entreprise détruit de la valeur pour chaque dollar investi.

Critères d'analyse fondamentale

Réussi (14)

  • Price CAGR 11.95%
  • ROIC 5.4%
  • P/B Ratio 1.57
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 36.8%
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 8.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 14.4%
  • Analyst Consensus 83% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.42
  • Share Dilution -1.5%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Échoué (8)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR -6.74%
  • Current Ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -3.7%
  • PEG Ratio 6.06
  • Net Margin Trend 27.4% vs 31.2%

Indisponible (6)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage

Score F de Piotroski

6/9

Signaux mixtes : certains domaines nécessitent attention

score
criteria

Qualité des bénéfices

1.42

Qualité élevée : bénéfices soutenus par la trésorerie

Dilution du capital

-1.5%

Rachat d'actions. Favorable aux actionnaires

Participations institutionnelles

Gouvernance

Équipe dirigeante

NomTitreÂge
Mr. Keith E. CreelCEO, President & Director56
Mr. Nadeem S. VelaniExecutive VP & CFO52
Mr. Mark A. ReddExecutive VP & COO54
Mr. John Kenneth BrooksExecutive VP & Chief Marketing Officer54
Mr. James Dominic Luther ClementsExecutive Vice-President of Strategic Planning & Corporate Services55
Ms. Pamela Lynne ArpinSenior VP & Chief Information Officer49
Ms. Cassandra P. QuachVP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary51
Ms. Maeghan AlbistonSenior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer42
Mr. Laird Joseph PitzSenior VP & Chief Risk Officer80
Corey HeinzManaging Director of Asia-

Risque d'audit

3

Risque du conseil

4

Risque de rémunération

8

Risque droits des actionnaires

3

Partie 2 · Le prix et le moment d'entrer

Cette partie ne dit pas si l'entreprise vaut la peine : elle aide à choisir quand l'acheter, une fois que les fondamentaux vous ont convaincu. À l'intérieur : analyse technique, potentiel, baisses historiques, exposition gamma.

Documents

  • Rapport annuel (10-K)

    Un aperçu annuel de l'activité, des résultats financiers et des risques de l'entreprise.

    Déposé le 2026-02-26

    Voir le document
  • Rapport trimestriel (10-Q)

    Une mise à jour de la performance financière des trois derniers mois.

    Déposé le 2026-07-30

    Voir le document
  • Rapport d'événement important (8-K)

    Un avis concernant un événement important, comme un changement de direction ou une annonce majeure.

    Déposé le 2026-09-29

    Voir le document

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for CP, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/15/2026POSITIVE
    $1000 Invested In Canadian Pacific Kansas 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today

    An investment of $1000 in Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) made 15 years ago would have grown substantially, highlighting the company's strong long-term performance. While specific figures are not provided in the title, such a scenario typically implies significant capital appreciation and potentially dividend reinvestment over the period. This underscores CP's historical ability to generate value for shareholders, driven by factors such as operational efficiency, strategic acquisitions (like the Kansas City Southern merger), and its critical role in North American supply chains. Investors considering long-term holdings may find this historical performance indicative of future potential.

  • 6/11/2026POSITIVE
    If You Invested $1000 In Canadian Pacific Kansas Stock 20 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today

    An investment of $1000 in Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) stock twenty years ago would have yielded a substantial return, illustrating the long-term growth potential of the railway operator. While specific figures are not provided in this summary, the article implies significant capital appreciation and potential dividend reinvestment over two decades. This historical performance underscores CP's resilience and ability to generate value for shareholders through operational efficiency and strategic acquisitions, making it a noteworthy consideration for long-term portfolio strategies.

via Markets Gazette