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Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC)

Juste valeur
IndustrialsRailroadsUnited States

Fondamental

63

Prix

$309.00

Capitalisation boursière

$70.31B

Partie 1 · Ce que vaut l'entreprise

Vue d'ensemble

Norfolk Southern Corporation is a Class I freight railroad operating roughly 19,100 route miles in the Southeast, East and Midwest of the United States. It hauls raw materials, intermediate products and finished goods for industrial shippers, energy producers and intermodal customers, and it is one of the few railroads serving the eastern half of the country, where its main rail competitor is CSX. In July 2025 Norfolk Southern agreed to merge with Union Pacific; the transaction requires approval from the Surface Transportation Board and had not closed as of the 2025 annual report.

Comment l'entreprise gagne de l'argent

Revenue comes from freight charges for moving cars and intermodal containers over the network: the company is paid per carload or per container, so revenue is the product of volume and average revenue per unit. About 90% of railway operating revenues are earned under private contracts and exempt price quotes rather than published common-carrier tariffs, and many contracts include fuel surcharges that pass part of the diesel cost back to shippers. In 2025 railway operating revenues were about $12.2 billion.

Chiffre d'affaires par segment

Merchandise63%

Carload freight in four commodity groups — agriculture, forest and consumer products; chemicals; metals and construction; and automotive — moved for industrial and agricultural shippers. It handled about 2.3 million carloads in 2025.

Intermodal25%

Containers and trailers carried on rail for steamship lines, truckers and logistics intermediaries, in competition with long-haul trucking. About 4.1 million units were handled in 2025.

Coal12%

Thermal coal for electric utilities and metallurgical coal for steelmakers and export terminals. About 78.0 million tons were hauled in 2025, and revenue fell year over year.

Avantage concurrentiel

Avantage de coûts · Large

A railroad's advantage rests on assets that cannot realistically be rebuilt: roughly 19,100 route miles of right of way assembled over more than a century, with regulatory and land-acquisition barriers that make a competing eastern network essentially impossible to create. Over long distances rail moves bulk freight at a fuel and labour cost per ton-mile that trucking cannot match, and on many industrial sites Norfolk Southern is the only carrier physically connected to the plant. The limits are real too: the Surface Transportation Board has jurisdiction over rates, routes and customer access, and on lanes where a truck or a barge is a practical substitute the company's own filing describes strong competition on transit time, price and reliability.

Ce qui stimule la demande

Cyclique

Volumes track industrial production, housing and construction activity, car assembly, grain harvests, steel output and container imports, so traffic rises and falls with the broader economy rather than with any single contract cycle. The intermodal book follows consumer goods imports and the truckload market, and it loses share to trucking whenever spot trucking rates fall. Coal is in structural decline as utilities retire coal-fired plants, while metallurgical coal depends on steel demand and on export markets. Because the network carries a heavy fixed cost of track, equipment and crews, a fall in volume hits margins faster than it hits revenue.

Principaux risques

  • The Union Pacific mergers may not be completed — The company discloses that completion of the mergers is subject to a number of conditions and to receipt of the requisite regulatory approvals, which may never be obtained, and that failure to complete the transaction could have material adverse effects. It also warns that the uncertainty of the process may cause the loss of management personnel and other key employees.
  • Obligation to carry hazardous materials — As a common carrier by rail the company must offer to transport hazardous materials, which exposes it to significant costs. The filing describes the February 3, 2023 derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, involving vinyl chloride tank cars, as the kind of incident that carries large remediation, litigation and reputational consequences.
  • Regulatory and legislative oversight of the rail industry — The Surface Transportation Board has jurisdiction, to varying extents, over rates, routes and customer access provisions. The company states that additional oversight and regulation of the rail industry could have a significant negative impact on its ability to run the business as it chooses.
  • Competition from other transportation providers — The company competes with motor carriers, other railroads and water carriers on transit time, pricing and service quality. Its filing notes continuing strong competition among rail, water and highway carriers and identifies CSX as its primary rail competitor.
  • Energy price volatility — The company states it may be negatively affected by energy prices and that volatility in those prices could have a significant effect on results, since diesel is a major operating cost and fuel surcharges recover it only with a lag and only in part.
  • Cybersecurity and technology disruption — A significant cybersecurity incident or other disruption to the technology infrastructure is disclosed as a risk; the company describes a vast threat landscape with potential attacks from cybercriminals and nation-states against systems that dispatch and control train operations.
  • Dependence on key suppliers and network capacity — The company is dependent on certain key suppliers and manufacturers — locomotives and rail equipment have few sources — and a disruption to one or more of them could negatively affect operating efficiency. Capacity constraints, including employee shortages, are cited as an operational risk.

Concentration des clients

The annual report does not disclose the share of revenue coming from the largest customers, and no customer is identified as material. What it does disclose is the shape of the commercial book: about 90% of railway operating revenues are earned under private contracts and exempt price quotes, so pricing is negotiated customer by customer rather than set by public tariff. Traffic is spread across four merchandise commodity groups, intermodal and coal, which limits exposure to any single shipper, though individual coal and automotive lanes can be concentrated in a few plants or terminals.

Les arguments en faveur

Buyers argue that the eastern network is an asset nobody can replicate, that price is largely negotiated rather than dictated by a fragmented competitor set, and that operating results have been improving: income from railway operations rose 7% in 2025 to $4,356 million on lower operating expenses and slightly higher revenues, with merchandise revenue up 3%. They point to the pending Union Pacific merger as a second source of value, offering cash and stock rather than depending on the standalone plan, and to the long-run argument that rail is the cheapest and least fuel-intensive way to move heavy freight over long distances.

Les arguments contre

Sellers fear that the merger may never be approved: the company itself discloses that the requisite regulatory approvals may never be obtained, that failure to complete could have material adverse effects, and that the uncertainty may cost it key employees. They also point to the operating picture underneath: coal revenue fell 8% and intermodal fell 1% in 2025, so growth rests on one of the three books. Beyond that they worry about the cost of being a common carrier of hazardous materials, with East Palestine as the reference case, about a Surface Transportation Board that can reach into rates, routes and customer access, and about a fixed-cost network whose margins compress quickly when industrial volumes turn down or truckload rates undercut intermodal.

Generated on 19 septembre 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 19 septembre 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 26.9Score: 68Market cap: $86.97B

Norfolk Southern names CSX as its primary rail competitor, because the two railroads run parallel networks across much of the same eastern United States territory and bid for the same freight from the same shippers.

P/E: 22.0Score: 77Market cap: $162.84B

Union Pacific is the dominant railroad in the western United States and competes with Norfolk Southern for long-haul interline and intermodal traffic moving between the two halves of the country, although the two companies have filed with the Surface Transportation Board to merge.

P/E: 19.7Score: 61Market cap: $76.76B

CPKC runs the only single-line network linking Canada, the US Midwest and Mexico and competes with Norfolk Southern for automotive, chemical and intermodal traffic in the Chicago, Detroit and Gulf gateways.

BNSF Railway Company (Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)BRK.B

BNSF, owned by Berkshire Hathaway, is the other western Class I railroad and competes directly with Norfolk Southern for transcontinental intermodal volumes, especially through its service alliance with CSX in the Southeast.

Canadian National Railway CompanyCNI

Canadian National reaches from Canada down to the Gulf of Mexico through Chicago and Memphis and overlaps with Norfolk Southern on Midwest-to-South lanes for grain, forest products and intermodal freight.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.KNX

As the largest US truckload carrier, Knight-Swift is one of the motor carriers Norfolk Southern cites as competition, winning shipments over rail when customers prioritise speed and door-to-door delivery.

Bilan & Liquidités

Chiffre d'affaires

$12.54B

12 derniers mois (au 30/06/2026)

Résultat net

$2.64B

12 derniers mois (au 30/06/2026)

Flux de trésorerie libre

$2.16B

Capitaux propres totaux

$15.55B

Passif total

$29.69B

Ratio de liquidité général

0.83

Couverture des intérêts

5.13

Dette/EBITDA

2.89

Bénéfice par action

Chiffre d'affaires & Résultat net

Flux de trésorerie libre

Décomposition du résultat

État historique

Marges dans le temps

La dette dans le temps

Le poids de la dette

Grille de la croissance

Croissance — Chiffre d'affaires

Estimation de la juste valeur

Cas généralJustement valorisé

Juste valeur

$278.10

Prix actuel

$309.00

Marge de sécurité

-11.1%

Fourchette de juste valeur

$206.01 - $350.20

Écart entre les méthodes de valorisation utilisées, pas un intervalle de confiance calibré statistiquement.

Méthodes d'estimation

Objectif de cours des analystes:$363.39
Flux de trésorerie actualisés (DCF):$222.02
Multiple de résultat (P/E):$263.99
Formule de croissance de Graham:$298.63
Valeur de la capacité bénéficiaire (EPV):$127.04
P/B justifié:$123.91
Actualisation des dividendes (Gordon):$78.35
P/FFO, les fonds provenant de l'exploitation:$303.89
Bénéfices de milieu de cycle:$369.02
Multiple sur le chiffre d'affaires:$158.50
Consensus des analystes:Conserver (8B / 18H / 0S)
Dernière surprise sur les résultats:+5.30%

Indicateurs de valorisation

Ratio P/E

26.37

ROE

18.5%

Ratio P/B

4.27

P/FCF

42.55

Marge brute

-

ROIC

7.6%

Radar de rentabilité

Création de valeur (avantage concurrentiel)

ROIC

7.6%

WACC

9.7%

ROIC − WACC

-2.1 pp

Le ROIC est inférieur au coût du capital — l'entreprise détruit de la valeur pour chaque dollar investi.

Critères d'analyse fondamentale

Réussi (17)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 7.15%
  • Price CAGR 11.48%
  • ROIC 7.6%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 32.2%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 16.8%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 6.9%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.42
  • Share Dilution -0.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Échoué (9)

  • P/FCF 42.55
  • P/B Ratio 4.27
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 4.5%
  • Analyst Consensus 31% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 2.61
  • Net Margin Trend 21.0% vs 27.5%

Indisponible (2)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Score F de Piotroski

6/9

Signaux mixtes : certains domaines nécessitent attention

score
criteria

Qualité des bénéfices

1.42

Qualité élevée : bénéfices soutenus par la trésorerie

Dilution du capital

-0.6%

Rachat d'actions. Favorable aux actionnaires

Participations institutionnelles

Gouvernance

Équipe dirigeante

NomTitreÂge
Mr. Mark R. GeorgePresident, CEO & Director57
Mr. Jason A. ZampiExecutive VP & CFO50
Mr. Anil BhattExecutive VP and Chief Information & Digital Officer-
Mr. Claude E. Elkins Jr.Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer59
Mr. Brian BarrChief Operating Officer46
Michael T. BarrVice President Treasurer & Investor Relations and Integrated Resource Planning-
Mr. Jason M. MorrisSenior Vice President & Chief Legal Officer-
Ms. Angela D. KolarVP & Chief Compliance Officer-
Ms. Elizabeth Talton-BuckVP & Chief Communications Officer-
Ms. Ann A. Adams Ph.D.Chief Human Resources Officer54

Risque d'audit

10

Risque du conseil

1

Risque de rémunération

3

Risque droits des actionnaires

6

Partie 2 · Le prix et le moment d'entrer

Cette partie ne dit pas si l'entreprise vaut la peine : elle aide à choisir quand l'acheter, une fois que les fondamentaux vous ont convaincu. À l'intérieur : analyse technique, potentiel, baisses historiques, exposition gamma.

Documents

  • Rapport annuel (10-K)

    Un aperçu annuel de l'activité, des résultats financiers et des risques de l'entreprise.

    Déposé le 2026-02-09

    Voir le document
  • Rapport trimestriel (10-Q)

    Une mise à jour de la performance financière des trois derniers mois.

    Déposé le 2026-07-23

    Voir le document
  • Rapport d'événement important (8-K)

    Un avis concernant un événement important, comme un changement de direction ou une annonce majeure.

    Déposé le 2026-07-23

    Voir le document

via SEC EDGAR

Historique des résultats

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for NSC, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 4/27/2026NEUTRAL
    Norfolk Southern Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

    Norfolk Southern Corporation has released its Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript. The document provides detailed insights into the company's financial performance, operational updates, and strategic outlook for the upcoming periods. Investors and analysts can review management's commentary on key business segments, capital expenditures, and any forward-looking statements. While the transcript itself is informational, it serves as a crucial resource for understanding the company's trajectory and potential future performance, allowing for informed investment decisions based on the disclosed data and discussions.

  • 4/24/2026POSITIVE
    Top Wall Street Forecasters Revamp Norfolk Southern Expectations Ahead Of Q1 Earnings

    Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) is set to release its Q1 earnings on April 24. While analysts anticipate a year-over-year decrease in EPS from $2.69 to $2.49, the stock experienced a significant 7.8% surge on Friday. This price action, despite the earnings forecast, suggests underlying positive sentiment or anticipation of factors that could outweigh the projected earnings decline. Investors will be closely watching the earnings call for management's outlook on operational improvements and future growth prospects, which could further support the stock's recent upward momentum.

via Markets Gazette