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Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE)

適正価値
EnergyOil & Gas E&PCanada

ファンダメンタル

57

株価

$4.54

時価総額

$3.21B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Baytex is a Calgary-based oil and gas producer that pumps crude oil and natural gas out of the ground in Western Canada and sells it into commodity markets. After selling its U.S. Eagle Ford shale assets in December 2025, it is now a pure Canadian producer, with heavy oil fields in Peace River and Lloydminster and light oil in the growing Duvernay and Viking formations. It does not refine or retail fuel — it only extracts and sells raw hydrocarbons.

収益の仕組み

Baytex earns revenue by selling barrels of oil and cubic metres of natural gas at prices it does not control — set by global crude benchmarks and, for its heavy oil, by a discount to those benchmarks that reflects transport and blending costs. It books a sale the moment production is delivered to a pipeline or buyer; there are no long-term supply contracts locking in price. Profitability depends almost entirely on the gap between the market price received and the cost of extracting each barrel.

セグメント別売上高

Heavy Oil74.9%

Thick, discounted crude from Peace River and Lloydminster that requires blending with lighter diluent before it can move through pipelines.

Light Oil and Condensate21.8%

Higher-value light crude, increasingly from the growing Duvernay formation, priced closer to benchmark levels than heavy oil.

Natural Gas Liquids1.8%

Natural gas liquids such as propane and butane recovered alongside oil and gas production.

Natural Gas1.6%

Natural gas produced alongside the oil, a small and stable share of total sales.

競争優位性(moat)

明確な優位性なし · なし

Baytex sells an undifferentiated commodity at prices set by global and regional benchmarks it cannot influence. Its heavy oil assets carry no pricing power — buyers pay a standard discount to WCS regardless of who produced the barrel — and any competitor with capital and drilling rights can access the same Alberta formations.

需要を左右する要因

景気循環型

Revenue rises and falls with global oil prices, which are set by OPEC+ supply decisions, global demand and pipeline capacity out of Western Canada. The 2025 divestiture of Eagle Ford removed exposure to U.S. shale economics but concentrated the company further on a single, cyclical commodity: Canadian heavy and light oil.

主なリスク

  • Commodity price volatility — Baytex states that its financial condition is highly sensitive to prevailing crude oil and natural gas prices, which are set by factors entirely outside its control, including OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical events.
  • Need to keep replacing reserves — Oil and gas reserves deplete as they are produced, so long-term results depend on finding and developing new reserves at acceptable cost, with no assurance the company will succeed at economic prices.
  • Pipeline capacity and heavy-oil discount — Insufficient pipeline capacity to move Canadian crude to market has repeatedly forced Canadian producers to accept steep discounts to benchmark prices, and the company does not control the regulatory processes governing new pipeline capacity.
  • Climate regulation and emissions costs — Baytex is subject to evolving emissions, carbon and environmental regulation, with no assurance its capital budget will be sufficient to cover future obligations tied to greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Indigenous land and rights claims — Opposition by Indigenous groups to the company's operations or development activities could delay projects, raise legal and advisory costs, and damage its ability to explore and develop new properties.

強気材料

Buyers argue that the Eagle Ford sale simplified the story into a focused, lower-decline Canadian heavy-oil and Duvernay producer with a much lighter debt load, freeing cash flow for buybacks and giving the market a cleaner read on the value of its Alberta acreage.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that concentrating entirely on Canadian heavy oil leaves the company more exposed to WCS price swings and pipeline bottlenecks than before, with less geographic diversification to cushion a downturn in any single basin.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.TVE

Tamarack is the largest pure-play producer in Alberta's Clearwater heavy oil fairway, drilling the same multi-lateral wells for the same heavy crude barrels that now form the core of Baytex's Canadian business.

Obsidian Energy Ltd.OBE

Obsidian develops heavy oil in the Peace River and Bluesky-Clearwater area, acreage directly adjacent to Baytex's Peavine and Peace River properties, and sells the same blended heavy barrel to the same refiners.

Rubellite Energy Corp.RBY

Rubellite is a smaller Clearwater and Mannville Stack heavy oil specialist competing with Baytex for the same undrilled land, the same drilling crews and the same heavy oil buyers in Alberta.

Strathcona Resources Ltd.SCR

Strathcona is a pure-play Canadian heavy oil producer built around Lloydminster and Cold Lake, the same Western Canadian heavy crude market where Baytex's Lloydminster assets sell their production.

Whitecap Resources Inc.WCP

Whitecap is one of the largest Western Canadian producers and the biggest Duvernay landholder, competing with Baytex both for Duvernay liquids-rich volumes and for the same Canadian energy investors and acquisition targets.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$892M

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$-717M

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$-226M

自己資本合計

$1.52B

負債合計

$149M

流動比率

2.82

利払い倍率

-

負債/EBITDA

0.21

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

景気循環株適正価値

適正価値

$5.22

現在株価

$4.54

安全マージン

+12.9%

適正価値レンジ

$4.96 - $5.48

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:算出に必要なデータが不足しています
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):この種の企業には適用されません
利益倍率(P/E):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
グレアムの成長公式:この種の企業には適用されません
収益力価値(EPV):$5.22
正当化されたP/B:この種の企業には適用されません
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):この種の企業には適用されません
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):この種の企業には適用されません
中間サイクル利益:算出に必要なデータが不足しています
売上高倍率:この種の企業には適用されません
アナリスト・コンセンサス:買い (8B / 6H / 0S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+153.03%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

32.28

ROE

-8.8%

P/B レシオ

2.12

P/FCF

-

粗利益率

59.0%

ROIC

32.4%

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

32.4%

WACC

7.7%

ROIC − WACC

+24.7 pp

ROICが資本コストを上回っています。企業は株主のために価値を創出しています。

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(8)

  • ROIC 32.4%
  • Gross Margin 59.0%
  • P/B Ratio 2.12
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 12.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 57% Buy

不合格(7)

  • Price CAGR -0.63%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • ROE 4.9%
  • Earnings Surprise avg -1502.9%
  • Net Margin Trend -18.2% vs 5.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

データなし(12)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-スコア

2/9

重大な財務上の懸念

score
criteria

利益の質

-

低品質:会計処理を調査してください

株式希薄化

-

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Chad E. LundbergPresident, CEO & Director43
Mr. Chad L. Kalmakoff C.A.Executive VP & CFO48
Mr. Kendall D. ArthurChief Operating Officer44
Mr. James R. MacleanSenior VP of Commercial & General Counsel45
Mr. Chris M.P. LessowayVP of Finance & Treasurer40

監査リスク

7

取締役会リスク

10

報酬リスク

4

株主権利リスク

1

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

Latest News

Recent headlines for BTE, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3/5/2026NEUTRAL
    Baytex Energy (BTE) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript

    The Q4 2025 earnings transcript for Baytex Energy (BTE) has been released. While the detailed content is unavailable, the mere release of an earnings transcript is a standard event for publicly traded companies. This event, in itself, does not provide direct insight into the company's financial performance or future outlook. Therefore, without access to the actual earnings figures, guidance discussions, or analyst Q&A, it is impossible to determine a directional impact on the stock price. Investors will need to review the full document for implications.

via Markets Gazette