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Credit Acceptance Corporation (CACC)

適正価値
Financial ServicesCredit ServicesUnited States

ファンダメンタル

85

株価

$512.34

時価総額

$5.55B

パート1 · 企業の価値

概要

Credit Acceptance Corporation is an indirect auto lender: it does not sell cars and does not lend to consumers directly, but finances used-vehicle purchases through a network of enrolled car dealers, mainly for buyers with impaired or limited credit histories who would normally be refused by a bank. The dealer writes the retail instalment contract and immediately assigns it to Credit Acceptance under one of two programs. Under the Portfolio Program the company advances cash to the dealer and takes over servicing, paying the dealer a further share of collections (Dealer Holdback) only after the advance and its fees have been recovered; under the Purchase Program it buys the contract outright for a single payment and keeps everything that is collected. In 2025 the Portfolio Program accounted for 74.2% of unit volume and 71.7% of dollar volume. The company also sells ancillary products such as vehicle service contracts and GAP coverage, and services the loans in-house for their whole life. Consumer Loan assignments totalled 337,411 units in 2025, down 12.6% from 2024.

収益の仕組み

Almost all revenue is interest and fee income earned on a portfolio of subprime auto loans, recognised over the life of each loan: finance charges were 92.4% of total revenue in 2025, premiums earned on ancillary products 4.1% and other income 3.5%, on total revenue of about $2.32 billion. The economics turn on the spread between what the loans actually collect and what Credit Acceptance paid the dealer, funded largely with borrowed money (revolving credit line, warehouse facilities, term ABS financings and senior notes), so the profit is the collected spread minus funding cost minus operating cost. Because the company books revenue using a forecast of how much of each loan pool it will ultimately collect, reported profit depends directly on those forecasts: when the forecast collection rate is revised down the effect flows through the provision for credit losses, and in 2025 a smaller provision was the main reason net income rose 71.0% to $423.9 million.

競争優位性(moat)

特許・ライセンス · 狭い

Credit Acceptance reports as a single business and its advantage, such as it is, rests on data and contract design rather than on brand or scale. Decades of performance history on loans made to consumers with impaired credit feed a proprietary scoring system whose projections are compared with actual results every month, which is hard for a newcomer to replicate; and the Portfolio Program structure, where the dealer is paid most of his money only out of what the loan actually collects, shifts part of the credit risk back onto the dealer. Both advantages are real but limited: the company has no exclusive arrangements with dealers, competitors can and do bid for the same contracts, and 2025 unit volume fell 12.6%, which shows how quickly volume moves when others price more aggressively.

需要を左右する要因

景気循環型

Demand rests on used-vehicle sales to households with weak credit, and both sides of the business move with the cycle. In a downturn the borrower base is hit first: delinquencies and defaults rise, collections come in below forecast and funding costs go up exactly when capital is scarcer. Volume behaves less predictably — Credit Acceptance often finds more business when mainstream lenders pull back, and less when they compete aggressively for the same borrowers, which is what the 12.6% drop in 2025 unit volume reflects rather than a collapse in demand for cars. A beginner should read the company as leveraged twice over to the consumer cycle: through the credit quality of the loans and through the cost and availability of the debt that funds them.

主なリスク

  • The forecast of how much will be collected may be wrong — The company's results depend on forecasting the amount and timing of collections on Consumer Loans years ahead. It discloses that these forecasts, produced by its proprietary credit scoring system and checked monthly against actual performance, may prove inaccurate, and that a shortfall against forecast reduces profitability.
  • Borrowers with impaired credit — Substantially all the Consumer Loans assigned to the company are made to consumers with impaired or limited credit histories, a population with materially higher delinquency and default rates than prime borrowers.
  • Dependence on access to capital and on substantial debt — The business is funded with borrowed money through a revolving secured line of credit, warehouse facilities, term ABS financings and senior notes. The company discloses that reduced availability of capital, or higher funding costs, would constrain its ability to keep buying loans, and that it is exposed to interest rate movements on this debt.
  • Competition for loan volume — The company competes with traditional and non-traditional lenders for assignments from the same dealers, has no exclusive relationships, and discloses that competition may reduce the volume of Consumer Loans assigned to it or the returns it can earn on them.
  • Litigation and regulatory action — The company is subject to extensive consumer-finance regulation and to investigations and proceedings by state and federal authorities. It discloses the joint complaint filed on 4 January 2023 by the New York State Attorney General and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau alleging deceptive practices, and reports proposed settlement payments of $75.5 million as of January 2026.
  • Macroeconomic conditions and used-car demand — The company discloses that adverse economic developments — recession, inflation, falling consumer confidence — could reduce used-vehicle sales and demand for its product, increase delinquencies and defaults, impair the performance of its loan portfolio and limit its access to capital at the same time.
  • Geographic concentration of dealers — Loan origination is concentrated in a handful of states: in 2025 the five largest states accounted for about 33.4% of dollar volume, led by Michigan at 8.0%, and the company expects significant volume to keep coming from those states, so local economic or legal changes there have an outsized effect.
  • Technology, cybersecurity and reliance on third parties — Origination and servicing run on the company's own platform and on integrations with third-party providers, including for ancillary products. Disclosed risks include system failures, data security incidents and the competitive and compliance implications of rapid advances in artificial intelligence.
  • Key personnel and concentrated ownership — The company discloses dependence on senior management and on specialised staff (including employees on foreign work visas), and the presence of concentrated shareholder ownership that could give rise to interests that differ from those of other shareholders.

顧客集中度

The company's direct counterparties are the enrolled dealers, not the car buyers, and no single dealer's Loans receivable balance accounted for more than 10% of the total at 31 December 2025 or 2024; the ultimate credit exposure is spread across hundreds of thousands of individual consumer contracts. The real concentration is geographic rather than by customer: the five largest states represented about 33.4% of 2025 dollar volume. The filing does not state a combined share for the largest dealers.

強気材料

Buyers argue that Credit Acceptance does something few lenders are willing to do — finance car buyers banks turn away — and has the loan-performance data and the pricing discipline to do it at a return that compensates for the losses. They point to the Portfolio Program structure, which makes the dealer wait for most of his money until the loan actually pays, as a way of sharing the credit risk that competitors do not replicate; to a 2025 in which lower credit-loss provisions carried net income up 71.0% to $423.9 million and diluted earnings per share up 83.0% to $36.38; and to management's long record of shrinking volume rather than writing loans at unattractive prices, and of buying back stock when it judges the shares worth more than new loans.

弱気材料

Sellers fear that the reported profit rests on a forecast rather than on cash already in hand: revenue is recognised on an estimate of what loans made to impaired-credit borrowers will collect over several years, and the company itself discloses that those forecasts may prove inaccurate — the same mechanism that lifted 2025 earnings through a smaller provision can reverse. They point to a business funded with substantial debt whose cost and availability tighten precisely when defaults rise, to unit volume down 12.6% in 2025 as competitors bid for the same contracts, and to legal and regulatory exposure in a politically sensitive corner of lending, including the New York Attorney General and CFPB complaint alleging deceptive practices, for which the company reports proposed settlement payments of $75.5 million as of January 2026.

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc.CPSS

The closest listed pure-play peer: it buys subprime retail installment contracts from franchised and independent US car dealers, competing with Credit Acceptance for the same dealer network and the same credit-impaired car buyers.

Westlake Financial Services (Westlake Services, LLC)Not tracked

One of the largest privately held US indirect auto lenders, originating non-prime and subprime contracts through tens of thousands of dealers — the same dealer-sourced volume Credit Acceptance bids for.

Santander Consumer USA Inc.Not tracked

The largest originator of US subprime auto paper by market share, buying dealer-originated contracts from the same credit tier Credit Acceptance serves (now wholly owned by Banco Santander, so no separate listing).

America's Car-Mart, Inc.CRMT

An integrated "buy here, pay here" used-car retailer that finances its own credit-challenged buyers — exactly the competition Credit Acceptance's 10-K calls its largest, since a customer financed on the lot never reaches its dealer program.

American Credit Acceptance, LLCNot tracked

A private non-prime auto finance company ranked among the top ten US subprime originators, funding deep-subprime car buyers through independent dealers in the same credit band.

Exeter Finance LLCNot tracked

A private indirect lender specialised in subprime auto contracts sourced from franchised and independent dealers, competing for the same dealer relationships and loan volume.

貸借対照表と流動性

売上高

$2.33B

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

純利益

$502M

直近12か月(2026/6/30まで)

フリーキャッシュフロー

$1.05B

自己資本合計

$1.52B

負債合計

$7.11B

流動比率

0.03

利払い倍率

-

負債/EBITDA

-

一株当たり利益(EPS)

売上高と純利益

フリーキャッシュフロー

収益内訳

財務推移表

利益率の推移

負債の推移

負債の重さ

成長率グリッド

成長率 — 売上高

適正価値の推定

銀行適正価値

適正価値

$509.26

現在株価

$512.34

安全マージン

-0.6%

適正価値レンジ

$417.13 - $601.39

使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。

推定方法

アナリストの目標株価:$636.67
ディスカウンテッド・キャッシュフロー(DCF):この種の企業には適用されません
利益倍率(P/E):$478.92
グレアムの成長公式:この種の企業には適用されません
収益力価値(EPV):この種の企業には適用されません
正当化されたP/B:$428.87
配当割引モデル(ゴードン):算出に必要なデータが不足しています
P/FFO(運用から生まれる資金):この種の企業には適用されません
中間サイクル利益:この種の企業には適用されません
売上高倍率:この種の企業には適用されません
アナリスト・コンセンサス:売り (0B / 5H / 3S)
直近の決算サプライズ:+0.22%

バリュエーション指標

P/E レシオ

11.71

ROE

27.8%

P/B レシオ

3.47

P/FCF

4.51

粗利益率

-

ROIC

-

収益性レーダー

価値創造(経済的モート)

ROIC

-

WACC

10.0%

ROIC − WACC

-

ファンダメンタル分析基準

合格(16)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 13.77%
  • Price CAGR 9.82%
  • P/FCF 4.51
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • ROE 32.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.8%
  • PEG Ratio 1.22
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.44
  • Share Dilution -6.6%
  • Net Margin Trend 21.5% vs 18.7%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

不合格(5)

  • P/B Ratio 3.47
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • Analyst Consensus 0% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg -4.0%

データなし(7)

  • ROIC NaN%
  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA

Piotroski F-スコア

6/9

まちまちのシグナル:一部の領域に注意が必要

score
criteria

利益の質

2.44

高品質:利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている

株式希薄化

-6.6%

株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的

機関投資家の保有

ガバナンス

経営陣

氏名役職年齢
Mr. Vinayak R. HegdeCEO, President & Director55
Mr. Ravi Mohan ValiyaveettilExecutive Officer52
Mr. Douglas W. BuskChief Treasury Officer65
Mr. Joseph BillanteCFO and Principal Financial & Accounting Officer49
Mr. Jonathan L. LumChief Operating Officer48
Mr. Jeetu MirchandaniChief Technology Officer-
Ms. Erin J. KerberChief Legal Officer, Chief Compliance Officer & Secretary45
Mr. Robert BourrierChief Sales Officer-
Mr. Siddharth LalChief Marketing Officer-
Ms. Wendy A. RummlerChief People Officer48

監査リスク

6

取締役会リスク

4

報酬リスク

10

株主権利リスク

4

パート2 · 株価と買い時

この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容:テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。

書類

  • 年次報告書(10-K)

    事業内容、財務実績、リスクをまとめた年次の概要。

    提出日: 2026-02-13

    書類を見る
  • 四半期報告書(10-Q)

    直近3か月間の業績に関する最新情報。

    提出日: 2026-08-04

    書類を見る
  • 臨時報告書(8-K)

    経営陣の交代や重要な発表など、大きな出来事に関するお知らせ。

    提出日: 2026-09-21

    書類を見る

via SEC EDGAR

業績推移

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for CACC, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3/13/2026POSITIVE
    Credit Acceptance Is 'The Only Non-Prime Lender Worth Owning,' Citron Says

    Citron Research has issued a strong endorsement for Credit Acceptance Corporation (CACC), designating it as the sole non-prime lender meriting investment. The influential research firm has established a fair value target of $714 for the company's stock. This optimistic outlook suggests Citron believes CACC is uniquely positioned within its sector, potentially due to superior risk management, underwriting capabilities, or market share. Investors should note this high conviction call from a prominent short-seller turned long-term advocate, which could signal significant upside potential if CACC's business performance aligns with Citron's projections.

via Markets Gazette