Caseys General Stores, Inc. (CASY)
適正価値ファンダメンタル
70
株価
$608.46
時価総額
$22.13B
パート1 · 企業の価値
概要
Casey's runs convenience stores across small towns in the American Midwest and South, selling fuel alongside made-in-store food like pizza and breakfast sandwiches and everyday grocery items. It has grown mainly by opening and acquiring stores in rural communities that larger chains often skip, and by building a prepared-food business that draws customers in for more than just a fill-up, which most gas stations do not attempt at the same scale.
収益の仕組み
Fuel brings in the most revenue but earns a thin margin that swings with wholesale prices, so it mainly draws customers into the store. Prepared food, dispensed beverages and grocery items carry much higher margins and are what actually drives profitability, which is why Casey's keeps expanding its in-store food menu and pushing same-store sales in those categories rather than competing purely on prices at the fuel island alone every quarter.
セグメント別売上高
Gasoline and diesel sold at the pump, the largest revenue category but the thinnest margin.
Packaged food, beverages, tobacco, alcohol and everyday household items sold on the shelves inside the store.
In-store pizza, sandwiches, bakery items and fountain drinks, the smallest category but the highest margin.
Wholesale fuel distribution and other ancillary revenue, boosted by the recent acquisition of a wholesale fuel network.
競争優位性（moat）
規模の経済 · 狭いCasey's density of stores across small Midwestern towns, many with little direct competition, gives it purchasing power on fuel and food supplies and lets it defend local markets that are too small to attract a second national chain. That advantage is regional rather than universal: in larger towns and cities it competes with bigger convenience and grocery chains on more even terms.
需要を左右する要因
ディフェンシブFuel and everyday food purchases are necessities that hold up reasonably well through economic downturns, since people still need to drive and eat regardless of the broader economy. The main swing factor is not the economic cycle but fuel margins, which move with wholesale gasoline prices and competitive pricing in each local market rather than with consumer demand itself.
主なリスク
- Fuel margin volatility — Retail fuel margins can swing with oversupply, volatile wholesale prices and price competition from other fuel marketers, and since fuel is the largest revenue category, this volatility affects overall results.
- Rural labor availability — Finding and keeping store staff is tighter in small towns than in cities, and persistent wage pressure in a labor-constrained footprint is a long-term cost risk.
- Commodity cost inflation — Higher costs for cheese, proteins and other prepared-food ingredients can squeeze margins in the highest-profit category if Casey's cannot pass the increases on to customers.
- Local competition — Casey's must keep adapting its prices, service and store experience to competitors in each market, and failing to do so could pressure both fuel and merchandise sales.
強気材料
Buyers argue that Casey's rural store density is hard for larger chains to replicate profitably, that its prepared-food business keeps growing same-store sales faster than fuel volumes alone would, and that disciplined acquisitions like the recent Fikes deal add scale without diluting the local-market advantage.
弱気材料
Sellers worry that fuel still drives most of the top line and its margin is largely outside Casey's control, that rural wage inflation could erode the cost advantage that supports its small-town strategy, and that continued expansion through acquisitions raises integration risk with each new deal.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Named by Casey's in its own 10-K, this family-owned Wisconsin chain competes store-for-store across the upper Midwest on the same combination of fuel, groceries and made-on-site prepared food.
Also named in Casey's 10-K, QuikTrip is a private chain that competes directly in the larger towns Casey's serves, on fuel price and on a food-service offer aimed at the same daily customer.
Through the Circle K banner it runs one of the largest US convenience-store networks and competes with Casey's for the same fuel and in-store purchase in the Midwest.
A US fuel-led convenience retailer whose low-price gasoline sites, often beside Walmart stores, pull the same price-sensitive motorist Casey's relies on for fuel gallons.
Owner of 7-Eleven, the largest convenience-store network in the United States, competing with Casey's on packaged goods, beverages, fuel and increasingly on hot prepared food.
After buying Kum & Go — a chain Casey's names in its 10-K — this private operator holds a large store base in Iowa and the surrounding states, Casey's core territory.
貸借対照表と流動性
売上高
$18.67B
直近12か月（2026/7/31まで）
純利益
$773M
直近12か月（2026/7/31まで）
フリーキャッシュフロー
$722M
自己資本合計
$3.95B
負債合計
$4.98B
流動比率
1.02
利払い倍率
-
負債/EBITDA
1.92
一株当たり利益（EPS）
売上高と純利益
フリーキャッシュフロー
収益内訳
財務推移表
利益率の推移
負債の推移
負債の重さ
成長率グリッド
成長率 — 売上高
適正価値の推定
適正価値
$710.90
現在株価
$608.46
安全マージン
+14.4%
適正価値レンジ
$534.58 - $887.22
使用した評価手法間のばらつきであり、統計的に較正された信頼区間ではありません。
推定方法
バリュエーション指標
P/E レシオ
29.31
ROE
18.1%
P/B レシオ
5.49
P/FCF
34.66
粗利益率
-
ROIC
-
収益性レーダー
価値創造（経済的モート）
ROIC
-
WACC
7.3%
ROIC − WACC
-
ファンダメンタル分析基準
合格（17）
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 15.39%
- Price CAGR 17.52%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 19.7%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 15.1%
- Analyst Consensus 70% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 14.1%
- PEG Ratio 1.60
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.80
- Share Dilution -0.1%
- Net Margin Trend 4.1% vs 3.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 8/9
不合格（6）
- P/FCF 34.66
- P/B Ratio 5.49
- CapEx intensity
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
データなし（5）
- ROIC NaN%
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Operating Margin NaN%
- Interest Coverage
Piotroski F-スコア
財務健全性が高い
利益の質
高品質：利益はキャッシュに裏付けられている
株式希薄化
株式を買い戻している。株主に友好的
機関投資家の保有
ガバナンス
経営陣
| 氏名 | 役職 | 年齢 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Darren M. Rebelez | President, CEO & Board Chair | 59 |
| Mr. Stephen P. Bramlage Jr. | Senior VP & CFO | 55 |
| Ms. Ena Williams Koschel | Chief Operating Officer | 56 |
| Mr. Chad Michael Frazell | Chief Human Resources Officer | 52 |
| Mr. Thomas P. Brennan Jr. | Senior VP & Chief Merchandising Officer | 50 |
| Mr. Kory Ross | Vice President of Accounting | - |
| Mr. Nathaniel Doddridge | Senior Vice President of Fuel | - |
| Mr. Joe Cruz | Chief Pizza & Beer Officer | - |
| Mr. Tim Ahrendsen | Senior VP of Operations Excellence | - |
| Mr. Scott Faber | VP, Deputy General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | - |
監査リスク
7
取締役会リスク
5
報酬リスク
3
株主権利リスク
7
パート2 · 株価と買い時
この部分は企業に価値があるかを判断するものではありません。ファンダメンタルズに納得したうえで、いつ買うかを選ぶためのものです。内容：テクニカル分析、ポテンシャル、過去のドローダウン、ガンマエクスポージャー。
業績推移
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for CASY, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 8/14/2026POSITIVEHunt for AI-proof trades turns convenience shops into hot stocks
Casey's General Stores has seen its stock surge over 54% year-to-date, reflecting a strong investor appetite for businesses resilient to economic downturns and technological disruption, particularly in the AI era. The company's focus on essential consumer needs like fuel, food, and everyday staples provides a defensive moat. This performance highlights a strategic shift by investors towards companies with predictable, non-discretionary revenue streams, potentially signaling a broader trend in market allocation towards 'AI-proof' sectors.
- 6/18/2026NEUTRALHere's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Casey's General Stores Stock In The Last 10 Years
An analysis of Casey's General Stores Inc. stock performance over the past decade reveals its trajectory for investors. While specific return figures are not detailed in this summary, the article prompts a review of its historical performance, suggesting potential for wealth creation or loss depending on the investment period. Investors considering Casey's should examine its long-term growth, market position, and strategic initiatives to understand its past returns and future potential.
- 6/10/2026NEUTRALCasey's General Stores Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Casey's General Stores Inc. released its Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript on June 10, 2026. The transcript provides detailed insights into the company's financial performance, strategic initiatives, and outlook for the upcoming fiscal year. Investors can analyze management's commentary on sales trends, operational efficiencies, and market conditions. While the transcript itself is informational, its true value lies in the forward-looking statements and guidance that may influence future stock performance. A thorough review is recommended for shareholders and potential investors to gauge the company's trajectory.
- 6/10/2026POSITIVECaseys General Stores Upbeat Q4 Earnings, Joins Applied Optoelectronics, Clover Health Investments And Other Big Stocks Moving Higher On Wednesday
Casey's General Stores Inc. (CASY) experienced a significant surge of 14.4% in its share price following the release of its Q4 earnings report, which surpassed analyst expectations. This positive performance places Casey's among other notable stocks like Applied Optoelectronics and Clover Health Investments that also saw upward movement. Despite a broader market downturn with the Dow Jones falling 150 points, Casey's strong earnings indicate robust operational performance and potential for continued growth, making it an attractive prospect for investors seeking individual stock opportunities amidst market volatility.
- 5/20/2026POSITIVEHere's How Much $100 Invested In Casey's General Stores 15 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today
An investment of $100 in Casey's General Stores 15 years ago would have grown to approximately $1,080 today, representing a significant return on investment. This performance highlights the company's sustained growth and operational efficiency over the past decade and a half. Investors who held Casey's stock have benefited from its expansion in convenience store offerings and fuel sales, demonstrating a strong track record of value creation. The substantial appreciation suggests robust business fundamentals and effective management strategies that have consistently outperformed market averages.
- 3/10/2026POSITIVECasey's General Stores Q3 Results Show 'Momentum Across The Board': Analyst
Casey's General Stores Inc. (CASY) has reported robust third-quarter financial results, accompanied by an upward revision of its EBITDA growth forecast. This positive performance has led Stephens to initiate coverage with an 'Overweight' rating. The company's ability to exceed expectations and enhance its future outlook suggests strong operational execution and favorable market conditions. Investors should note that this analyst upgrade, coupled with the raised EBITDA guidance, signals potential for sustained share price appreciation.
- 3/4/2026POSITIVE$1000 Invested In Casey's General Stores 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
An investment of $1000 in Casey's General Stores Inc. five years ago would be worth approximately $3000 today, a 200% return significantly outperforming the stock market during the same period. This performance highlights the company's robust growth and ability to generate shareholder value, driven by effective strategies in the convenience store and prepared food sectors. For investors, the stock demonstrates significant appreciation potential, supported by a resilient business model and consistent expansion.
via Markets Gazette